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If you take the ER offer, do you have to quit working? Is your job environment so good that you can afford to pass up the ER offer, or will the next ugly department meeting have you kicking yourself for passing up the ER offer? A couple of the incumbent ERs achieved their status by taking their ER offers with the thought that "What the heck, I can always go back to work." If you think you'll miss your boss & co-workers, then you can always take them to lunch. Unless you're working for one of the S&P500's top ten employers, I'd take the money and run.
Are you emotionally/psychologically ready to ER and be responsible for your own upkeep & entertainment? This isn't just a financial decision. Take a couple days to look through the "Lifestyles in Retirement" thread and see what hits your brain cells. But what the heck, you can always go back to work.
With insufficient data and time pressure, there's a huge temptation to throw a wad of money at a "financial advisor" and ask "Tell me if I can afford to do this?!?". Unless your workplace will pay for the experience, I wouldn't pay for "advice". Read Bernstein's "Four Pillars" book, learn how to throttle your investment expenses, and make your own ER decision.
Conventional wisdom appears to agree that, with limited resources, it's better to ER without a mortgage. But many of us ERs still have our mortgages and we're handling them within our budgets. If you're not interested in relocating to a lower-cost area (and, with all the other incipient lifestyle turbulence, I wouldn't recommend it) then you could easily end up being a long-term renter while you wait for the real estate market to cool off. I'd be reluctant to buy anything at today's prices, although in ER you could tackle the sweat-equity fixer-upper from hell if that interests you.
I'm with Lance-- I wouldn't be in ER without keeping a tight watch on the expenses. You're right, you DO need to get a handle on what you're spending so that you can attempt to quantify your ER decision. (But the decision still has a big emotional component!) This board's "Costs of Retirement" section has three exceptionally good threads on "Spending in ER", "80% Rule", and "33%-- That's My Story". (TH, this would also be a great time to point us toward your list of retirement expenses for new roofs & appliances, replacement cars, fantasy vacations, etc.) But what the heck, Bill, you could always go back to work.
My point (and I do have one) is that the ER decision is nearly impossible to make from within the ivory tower of your workplace. You're close enough to give it a try, even with your current house/mortgage and inflation-ravaged pension. You can always keep working-- but you can't get a refund for your missing free time if you don't ER! And if, after a few months of experiential learning, you conclude that ER can't be done in your current situation, then you could always go back to... but you get the idea.
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