Lots of strong opinions considering not one of us really knows whats going to happen.
The good news is we're real nice to each other about our complete lack of knowledge
The thing is, its a nice idea to find those 20 "great" companies. Perhaps it was "obvious" to some in the 80's that microsoft was going to be what its become. It looked like a 5th wheel to IBM to me, and I thought for sure that Billy's gamble to drop OS/2 in favor of windows was going to be the punchline to some harvard business school paper about how microsoft blew it.
I also enjoyed the late 99 issue of some well regarded financial rag that I read in my doctors office in 2002, crowing about how no matter how expensive they were, you just had to own worldcom and enron, as they were the bluest of blue chips and would highlight the next 20 years of "must own" stocks. I couldnt find fault with their logic, even though I had a few extra years of knowledge they didnt have at the time. I just never bought them because buying phone and power companies at P/E's in the 70's never appealed to me.
I do believe that buying the right companies makes you rich faster than any other way. I also believe that people who "found" those companies did so through dumb luck or coincidence rather than smarts or tools. But to be fair, you can screen out some down on their luck companies that have good prospects and maybe luck out on some.
I'd rather get rich slow. Err...stay rich slow.
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Many an optimist has become rich by buying out a pessimist
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