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Originally Posted by justin
Here's 1957-1971 (a random 15 year period - excludes dividends cause Yahoo don't give em to me).* Doesn't look like either of our two charts that we already posted.* To me it looks like a lot of random noise.*
Not sure how to test your assertion that "If the trailing 3 to 6 months are in line with the chart, the possibility is strong that the next month will follow suit.* If the numbers are off, all bets are off for the short term."* Do you use 3 months or 6 months or just eyeball it?* How close is close enough?* Your system seems to be defined with a sufficient level of flexibility or fuzziness such that it always prove itself correct (a bad trait to have if one is looking for a truly predictive hypothesis).
But hey, if your system works for you, keep to it.* Whatever helps you earn that Mustang*  * |
How close?* I just want the general trend, numbers not even necessary.* 3 to 6 months the more the better.
Despite what you may believe, I'd stay away from buying in Jan and selling in Sep/Oct as your "random" charts would seem to recomend.
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