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I've just looked at some of Shiller's housing data.* * It seems that housing values have been stable in real dollars since WWII.* *They've basically been a store of value that has tracked inflation for 50 years.
So, it's *really* hard for me to swallow that it's different this time.* *Cheap money has meant that *builders* have benefited, and supply has met or exceeded demand.* * This is not demand-driven appreciation.
If we revert to the mean, it *will* be ugly.* *There is no way around that.* *Even if prices just move sideways, they'll have to move sideways for *decades* to unwind the excesses of the last 8 years.
We will see the jobs created by the housing sector virtually disappear.* * We'll see consumer spending dry up.* *I think it's very likely that we'll see something like Japan's *long* *slow* decline, but on a larger scale.* *I hope I'm wrong.
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