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> note that using the default firecalc at 80% equity and 20% 5 yr bonds says you're
> not at 100% success.* It says 90.9%.* Slice and dice type equity mixes have been shown to
> improve success, but it's not clear that such a thing is not data mining.
I can't quite reproduce your numbers, but I agree that the "Total Market" portfolio
gives significantly less optimistic results than the "mixed portfolio" and I don't quite
understand why.* I'd like to know exactly what the default portfolio is.
I agree about data mining.* I think at success rates well above 90%, your failures
are all in that "perfect storm" period, so the results of tweaking the equity mix is
tailored to that scenario and probably not generally applicable.* *Given that, it
probably makes a LOT more sense to stick with the generic "total market" portfolio.
John
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