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Originally Posted by GolferAndy
I'm with you on this John because you and I are the same age and I too plan on firing my employer this year. What I would question, however, is your planned 50k income stream. IMO a 5.2% withdrawal rate is simply too high with a possible 37 yr. time horizon, especially when you would be starting out with valuations as high as they currently are. In addition, a plan that counts on an income stream from a government entiltlement program that will almost surely be changed before you can collect a dime from it in 13 years time is also reason to be cautious. The generation(s) behind us baby-boomers will almost surely rebel at the future cost of providing us with full SS & Medicare benefits. I use the online SS calculator myself.. but I subtract 30% from what it says for my ER planning. Good luck.
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Congratulations on firing your employer !* I actually enjoy mine though, as long
as I'm only there a few months per year.* *Maybe if your employer is sad to see
you go, you can finagle some kind of occasional-work arrangement like me, and
significantly boost your retirement income picture ?
Yes, a 5.2% withdrawal rate seems way too high for 37 yrs.* Except it's only
5.2% for 9 to 13 yrs, until SS kicks in; then it's way lower.* *My impression,
correct me if I'm wrong, is that all the papers and conventional wisdom about
SWR is not taking SS into account.
Your point about the reliability of SS is a good one.* I've read somewhere
that SS is pretty safe, at least for OUR lifetimes, because of the massive
political strength of the segment of the population getting SS.* After all,
AARP is the strongest lobby they say, and this is only gonna get moreso.
Nonetheless, it seems like a good argument to begin at the earliest possible
age (62yo for me).* And* your 30% discounting of the SS calculator's result
seems only prudent; surprisingly, it only reduces my target overall annual
income of $50K by $2500 or so.*