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Re: Can anyone realistically generate long-term alpha?
Old 05-17-2007, 01:16 PM   #14
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Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 423
Quote:
Originally Posted by Want2retire

I sometimes wonder if the appeal of passive investing via index funds appeals to people like me for all the wrong reasons. I have less understanding of the positive and negative aspects of the multitude of individual companies than almost anyone you might meet. Suddenly, I find myself wanting to retire and trying to learn what I need to know to invest. The suggestion that all I have to do is to invest in a few index funds, using a simple asset allocation, is far too appealing.
If you follow the teachings of Bogle, this is exactly what he says. That everyone has a "system" to beat the odds, but in the end, simply staying the course and buying the market will beat 2/3s or 9/10s of active funds.

On the dow idea, there is a well known tactic did sorta similar, except the exact opposite called "dogs of the dow". The idea behind the "Dogs of the Dow" strategy is to buy those DJ companies with the lowest P/E ratios and highest dividend yields. By doing so, you're selecting those Dow stocks that are cheapest relative to their peers. So, basically, you are buying the WORST performing dow stocks. It is a value play and it worked well for a time. Then everyone started doing it and it worked its way out of the market.

So, Want2Retire, I'd say you have as close to the optimal plan as possible, whether by accident or intent A whole lot of Hurry up and wait. And don't worry, most mutual fund and hedge fund managers just like to THINK they understand the positive and negative aspects of most of their investments, time is the judge of that.
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