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The problem is determining, ex ante, the locations that will experience 11% per annum appreciation for 30 years.
I would suggest that the locations that have seen historical appreciation for the last 30 years of 4% are more likely to see high appreciation in the future versus those that just experienced 11% appreciation for the last 30 years. Reversion to the mean and all that rot.
Maybe we should all be buying in Charlotte, Puerto Rico, and Alabama. I'd put money there instead of the $1 million $800,000 $600,000 $500,000 houses available in the 11% appreciation markets. Plus properties in areas of lower historical appreciation might actually cash flow today. Fancy that.
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