 Quote:
Originally Posted by FUEGO
I would suggest that the locations that have seen historical appreciation for the last 30 years of 4% are more likely to see high appreciation in the future versus those that just experienced 11% appreciation for the last 30 years. Reversion to the mean and all that rot.
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That's the point! How can you determine the mean without knowing the annual rates? In Honolulu I have short term rates of 15%, 20% and long term (30years) of 9%. Pretty much any property on Oahu has a rate of 9% over 20 years. Is 9% the mean?
What factors in 4% areas will change that will cause them to appreciate higher? If you can't identify them then they'll probably not happen.
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