It's not that hard to predict that areas with lots of jobs, greenbelt-limited growth, desirable climate, and cultural opportunities will continue to appreciate faster than average.
Zillow maps ups and downs of housing prices
But the cash flow in these areas is usually the worst, so investors will see all their additional appreciation going towards the money they are losing in rents.
So I vote 4%- Inflation. Just like has happened throughout all of recorded history except the last decade:
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/...aph2.large.gif
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