[Razor]

Why the oil boom will eventually bust - Jun. 6, 2008


It’s tempting to not to let the facts get in the way of a good story, but even the oil industry itself admits this issue is a red herring. For example, the National Petrochemical and Refiners Association conceded at a May 23 Senate hearing on price gouging that gasoline supplies were temporarily tight. But the oil industry lobby went on to note that:

This situation will ultimately be addressed through announced additions to U.S. refinery capacity, estimated at 1.4 to 2.0 million barrels per day. This is an 8-11percent increase in U.S. capacity, which should be in place by 2010 at the latest…. over the past 10 years, domestic refining has increased by an average of 177,000 barrels per day of production each year or the equivalent of building one new, larger than average refinery each year. This fact should assuage some concerns about the fact that no new grassroots refinery has been built in the U.S. in over 30 years.

Indeed, at a Senate hearing last year, BP’s chief executive officer explained that “[refinery] margins over the last 10 to 15 years have not been high enough on average to justify building a new refinery.” And in a recent closed-door briefing with congressional aides, an Exxon Mobil official said that company foresees no need to build new refineries at least through the year 2030.