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Your numbers are not too far off, but echo the health insurance need - big wild card. Your 4.6% seems a bit high for a 50 year retirement. Also note that 50 years of exposure virtually insures a number of "sea changes" including periods of serious inflation, gov't policy changes, unimaginable stock market gyrations, national debt needing to be controlled, etc. etc.
If you go this route, I'd seriously consider building in serious cushion, esp with kids in the picture, and read Taleb's "Black Swan" book (I really didn't like the book but found it sobering).
In your shoes, I'd rather go the Clyatt route: early semi-retirement, keeping an income stream coming doing something you enjoy. It doesn't take much money to make a big difference. If you pull in even $30k per year it's like having and $600-$750K extra in investments from a cash-flow standpoint.
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Rich
Tampa, FL (ESR-bound. Really. I mean it. Seriously.)
As if you didn't know..If the above message happens to contain medical content, it's NOT intended as advice, and may not be accurate, applicable or sufficient. Don't rely on it for any medical purpose whatsoever. Consult your own doctor for all medical advice.
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