For grins: expand the "Won the game" metaphor

jjquantz

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Last time I saw DD#2 we spent a little time talking about savings, investing, and early retirement. SIL brought up the "won the game" metaphor - he's a regular reader of some early retirement blogs. So, we talked about where we felt we were in the "retirement game." For some reason basketball seemed like the most relevant sport.

DW and I think that we are, "up by 20 points with 5 minutes left."

I see my daughters as "having jumped out to a 15 point lead midway through the first half."

When I was their age, DW and I were "trailing by a couple of points, but if some shots start to fall we should do OK."

How about you?
 
Football (North American, not soccer)

I am up by 5 points with 3 minutes to go and all my timeouts left.
 
My superstar just fouled out. The fans are leaving the building early. The tv announcer is vamping stories about his playing days. Heck, even the cheerleaders look depressed.
 
Auerbach_Red-2.jpg
 
Every which way I crunch my numbers, we are 100% golden for our lifestyle, a lifestyle we have no desire to change (e.g., we will never take 5 vacations in a year, buy a Rolls Royce, etc.).
So I say we won the game by at least 1 point. It shows up as a W, and the W cannot be erased.
 
DD and her fiance are very happy, planning a wedding, and are cost conscious people. They will be OK in the long run. Dad is their backup plan (for now) and their coach. All is on track.
 
I just dove into the pool for the men's 100 meters freestyle before realizing I can't swim.
 
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Here I am sitting thinking, well we won, got a nice shiny trophy that would impress the eyeballs of my friends if they ever saw it. Life is all good.

Until I realize what if
someone stole my shiny trophy,
or a natural disaster killed us,
or nuclear war destroyed society.

Then I would have worked and trained so hard to win the game, only to have to do it all over as a poor loser.
 
Boxing: I got my opponent by the ropes. The only way he can beat me by knocking me out but his KO win percentage is at 0.

Baseball: Leading by 5 runs, bottom of 9th inning, two outs, no one on base, and the opposing batter is showing bunt.

Basketball: 2 seconds to go with 10 point lead.

Soccer: 3 goal lead with 2 minute injury time left.

You get the picture.
 
In this sort of discussion, since analogies seem to be the approach, you'll only know the answer that matters until after the "fat lady sings".
 
I have a better chance of being struck by lightning than dying broke.
 
Being 20+ points ahead with 2 minutes to play feels about right to me even if we are talking about the Houston Rockets.:LOL:

To me winning the game means that you can "fully" retire and live in the lifestyle "you reasonably want" without "needing" to invest/risk/gamble/speculate for market returns or returns in anything else for that matter. Yes there are still risks with that much in cash. e.g. total dollar collapse, zombie apocalypse, etc, but that's where survivalist planning starts to come into play.

Now if you have enough money set aside to retire "and" live like you want but still "play" or invest in "stuff" with the extra, then that's okay in my book. YMMV.
 
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I think the game analogy is sometimes a little overstated. Ie in my view the game is never over until you are expired so you would never “stop playing”. Ie it’s not over until it’s over.
 
Over halfway through a long season. Most players are healthy, but everyone fondly and wearily recalls that bye week long ago. Maybe the league will add a surprise bye before the playoffs?
 
I no longer care about keeping score.
 
I would use the analogy that I made it over the top of the hill, and now on the downhill coasting. Still need to use some caution to not get out of control, but the hard work is done.
 
Okay, I'll play.


When I was planning my ER back in 2007-08 (I was 44-45 years old at the time), I was expecting to use some of my principal in my late 50s to cover my expenses before I turned ~60 and could gain access to my "reinforcements.". In sports terms, I was expecting to hold a big lead but watch it erode slightly while still being able to win fairly handily.


Instead, I am not only nowhere near having to tap into principal but have seen that principal grow despite the monthly dividends per share falling in the last 9 years. In sports terms, I tweaked my game strategies a little bit and watched my lead increase, not decrease. I can easily coast to victory now, and those "reinforcements" will actually be bigger, not smaller, than I had planned 9 years ago.


Game over.
 
I'm looking at an eight-ender and the other rink have just burnt their hammer.
 
My sportsball team is outsportsballing the other sportsball team by a very large margin, though I'm only 48% way through the game (stochastically speaking).
 
I'm still not sure I understand the metaphor.

Winning what? The Game of Life? Surely keeping score is more than just tallying up dollars for points. And it's not really a zero-sum game. He who dies with the most toys is NOT always the winner.

Or did I miss a previous conversation? I did a quick search of the FAQ but came up empty.
 
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