Bond allocation tinkering... perhaps market timing??

To be clear, VBTLX is Vanguard Total Bond... that was -1.22% YTD as of 7/19/18 and by bond portfolio is a little over 2% to the positive.... that is what I am happy about because VBTLX is my benchmark for fixed income.

That +3.22% difference on the bond side is a large part of the reason that my total portfolio return is ahead of my overall benchmark.
 
pb4uski said:
To be clear, VBTLX is Vanguard Total Bond... that was -1.22% YTD as of 7/19/18 and by bond portfolio is a little over 2% to the positive.... that is what I am happy about because VBTLX is my benchmark for fixed income.

That +3.22% difference on the bond side is a large part of the reason that my total portfolio return is ahead of my overall benchmark.
Click to expand...
I'm not much of a bond guy but I'm curious: Did this result involve a lot of trading, non-US, or junk? IOW, what was the secret sauce?
 
No secret sauce... mostly just dumb luck.

At the beginning of the year my fixed income portfolio was a mix of corporate and high yield target maturity bond funds maturing in 2018-2022, Vanguard Total International Bond and Vanguard Emerging Mkt Govt Bond. See Portfolio Visualizer link for details. Plus some 3% PenFed CDs.

In early June, I liquidated all the Guggenheim funds and plunked the proceeds in Prime MM which is yielding about 2%.

I had made an error in my earlier post when I blended in the PenFed CD return... I used 3% (a full year), rather than 1.75% (for 7 months)... so the little over 2% positive should really be 1.33% YTD positive... but still better than the Vanguard Total Bond negative return for the same period.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2018&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=6&endDate=07%2F20%2F2018&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&symbol1=BSJI&allocation1_1=10&symbol2=BSJJ&allocation2_1=8&symbol3=BSJK&allocation3_1=35&symbol4=BSCK&allocation4_1=6&symbol5=BSCM&allocation5_1=3&symbol6=IBDC&allocation6_1=7&symbol7=VGAVX&allocation7_1=5&symbol8=VTABX&allocation8_1=26&symbol9=VBTLX&allocation9_2=100
 
pb4uski said:
No secret sauce... mostly just dumb luck.

At the beginning of the year my fixed income portfolio was a mix of corporate and high yield target maturity bond funds maturing in 2018-2022, Vanguard Total International Bond and Vanguard Emerging Mkt Govt Bond. See Portfolio Visualizer link for details. Plus some 3% PenFed CDs.

In early June, I liquidated all the Guggenheim funds and plunked the proceeds in Prime MM which is yielding about 2%.

I had made an error in my earlier post when I blended in the PenFed CD return... I used 3% (a full year), rather than 1.75% (for 7 months)... so the little over 2% positive should really be 1.33% YTD positive... but still better than the Vanguard Total Bond negative return for the same period.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=2018&firstMonth=1&endYear=2018&lastMonth=6&endDate=07%2F20%2F2018&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&symbol1=BSJI&allocation1_1=10&symbol2=BSJJ&allocation2_1=8&symbol3=BSJK&allocation3_1=35&symbol4=BSCK&allocation4_1=6&symbol5=BSCM&allocation5_1=3&symbol6=IBDC&allocation6_1=7&symbol7=VGAVX&allocation7_1=5&symbol8=VTABX&allocation8_1=26&symbol9=VBTLX&allocation9_2=100
Click to expand...

Just want to make sure I understand something....

I understand that the value of VBTLX has dropped in spite of the fact that yield has increased. (Or because yield has increased.) As regards your individually held bonds, the 1.33% YTD increase comes just from the interest on them, right? If the market value of the bonds increases due to interest rates increasing or decreasing, do you adjust the value of those you own on your personal spreadsheet? Or do you carry them at face value because you don't intend to sell them until redemption at maturity?

Thank you.
 
I don't have any individual bonds... they are all bond ETFs or mutual funds. The 1.33% YTD is a blend of the YTD total return on the ETFs and mutual funds (so interest, realized gains and losses and unrealized gains and losses) and interest on the PenFed CDs.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Lsbcal
Could bonds be great in 2024?
2
Replies
25
Views
3K
pb4uski
pb4uski
FiveDriver
Question about Bond ETF's
Replies
10
Views
842
Phroig
P
D
Change Asset Allocation 80 Stock / 20 Cash?
Replies
5
Views
867
mrfeh
M
H
YTM calculator for bond portfolio
Replies
5
Views
382
pb4uski
pb4uski
M
Balanced Portfolio market frustration continues..
2
Replies
29
Views
4K
I am He
I

Latest posts

Back
Top Bottom