I think I'm going to say it ..... One More Year :(

[Amethyst]

This describes my position rather well. Retiring and taking pension (no SS) will leave us in the same tax bracket with lower income, because of losing deductions for TSP and FEHB premium.

I keep not wanting to get into that position, but the only other choice is to keep working full-time and watching life drain away. Sometimes you gotta cut the cord, even if it means your longer-working cow-orkers will have more $ and end up in a higher-class old age home than you will

Amethyst

I You could easily end up working another year or two, and if the market declines, end up having a lower net worth. Then what? Work another year or two? I've had the same experience of losing friends/family at a young age and it sure motivated me to enjoy life now.

 

[Live And Learn]

From one worry-wart to another, when I first attempted ER back in 2008 and watched our nest egg drop by about 40% it freaked me out to the point that I eventually went back to work after two years. I think we probably had enough to stay retired but I wasn't prepared for how hard it would hit me emotionally. Also, I found out I was a much better saver than a spender. It killed me to spend down our portfolio, even though all the numbers "worked" according to all the calculators and studies.

The other thing that killed my ER was I got bored after two years due to a lack of planning, and because we still had kids in school so we really couldn't go do much "retirement" type travel. My wife was still working at the time.

Our new plan has me trying it again after the kids are in college. I just turned 48, so at 53 I hope I still feel like surfing everyday. ��

Interesting - sounds like you're happy with your "un-retirement" ? Do you think you'd be happier if you didn't have that retirement dry-run in 2008 at all ?

 

[obgyn65]

I feel the same about the "one more year syndrome". I was planning to FIRE last year... To the OP : I would wait at least a few more months until the 3 calculators show 100% success rate. Good luck.

Easy to get caught in the one more year trap. But if 1 or 2 more year puts you over the top, I would. Fifty was my goal, but settled for 52.

 

[meekie]

So now I feel like I need to work OMY to make up for the "lost" severance ! How crazy is that ??

I don't think it's crazy. I'm sorry to hear that you're too valuable to get a severance.

If I could get severance and then unemployment, I'd take it in a heartbeat and try out a new (part-time) career. But without it, I make too much money at my current job to take that risk.

I think you really need to think about why you want to retire. Is it just to meet your goal of age 50? Is that goal still important to you? Are there things about your current job that you need to get away from? Are there things in your life that you feel that you are missing out on by working?

You can keep running numbers forever, and even if you get to 100% you'll probably still find more things you want to have special buckets for.
But what will you be missing out on by working? I took a few days off work in December to hang out with my mom and dad. When my dad died from a heart attack on Jan 1, I was really glad that I didn't let work come first.

 

[Live And Learn]

Ok, so lets look at this. I have 1.1mm in post-tax dollars (investment purchase price plus cash). If I spend that over 40 years that gets me 28k in expense I can cover that wont be part of my MAGI. Gets me to taxable income (assuming all other dollars are pretax) of 63k. BUT ... if I get Obamacare subsidy at MAGI of 60k my expenses go down by 15k which means I need to fund 72k in expense, less 28k = 44k, well below 60k cliff.

If I assume Obamacare subsidy I get 100% to age 100 in Firecalc, 95% to age 95 in Vanguard, and 92% to age 90 in FIDO.

The BS bucket is feeling awfully heavy after running those numbers !

 

[DeborahB]

My advice is to make sure you can get health insurance. If you can - get out of the rat race ASAP! I don't hear you saying you love your j*bs

 

[Live And Learn]

My advice is to make sure you can get health insurance. If you can - get out of the rat race ASAP! I don't hear you saying you love your j*bs

I am currently getting coverage through my husband who will continue to work for another 8 years (God willing). With the new healthcare act everyone will have access to healthcare. My new numbers which include the subsidy look very doable, and even without the subsidy I was at 85 - 95 % success.

I just need to convince myself that it will be ok to bail out ! My BS bucket is FULL !

 

[Live And Learn]

If I could get severance and then unemployment, I'd take it in a heartbeat and try out a new (part-time) career. But without it, I make too much money at my current job to take that risk.

Yep - exactly the same here !

I think you really need to think about why you want to retire. Is it just to meet your goal of age 50? Is that goal still important to you? Are there things about your current job that you need to get away from? Are there things in your life that you feel that you are missing out on by working?

You can keep running numbers forever, and even if you get to 100% you'll probably still find more things you want to have special buckets for.
But what will you be missing out on by working? I took a few days off work in December to hang out with my mom and dad. When my dad died from a heart attack on Jan 1, I was really glad that I didn't let work come first.

The stress is more than I want to deal with. Its unhealthy. I don't enjoy getting up in the mornings anymore. Perhaps all I need is a different job. I've considered that option also. It would be a tradeoff of of 3:1 years. Am I willing to work 3 or 6 more years somewhere else rather than put up with the BS here for 1 or 2 more ? I'd rather be free (but who wouldn't) and the numbers are close enough that "I think I can" but I'm afraid of making the decision on my own. Yeah, I know - I'm looking for a scapegoat, I get that.

I'm so sorry to hear about your Dad but I'm glad you got to spend the time with him. I spent 3 days in the hospital hanging out with my Dad the month before he died. I'll always treasure those three days.

 

[Live And Learn]

I would wait at least a few more months until the 3 calculators show 100% success rate. Good luck.

Emphasis mine. Months ? I wish it were months With my 10% market contingency it's probably more like 5 - 7 years before all three calculators get me to 100%.

Without my market contingency and w/out any Healthcare subsidies I get 92%, 88% and 99% with Fido / Vanguard / Firecalc respectively.

I'lll look at this again in August which was my target date.

 

[DeborahB]

I am currently getting coverage through my husband who will continue to work for another 8 years (God willing). With the new healthcare act everyone will have access to healthcare. My new numbers which include the subsidy look very doable, and even without the subsidy I was at 85 - 95 % success.

I just need to convince myself that it will be ok to bail out ! My BS bucket is FULL !

In your situation, health insurance would be my only concern. Since you are talking about waiting until August (I think?) by then we'll know if the healthcare act really happens. I'm cynical. It's coming too late to help me, unfortunately, but I go on medicare in June and my expenses drop enormously.

I have never looked back, never regretted a moment of that decision to quit! There's been a lot of stress since I quit, but fundamentally it was nothing compared to what I experienced at my j*b. I grew to hate my job and the whole work environment I was in. Life's too short to put up with that crap!

 

[obgyn65]

Ok. Then to answer your concern, I would wait a few more years until the calculators get me to 100%. I am sorry.

Emphasis mine. Months ? I wish it were months With my 10% market contingency it's probably more like 5 - 7 years before all three calculators get me to 100%.

 

[Live And Learn]

Ok. Then to answer your concern, I would wait a few more years until the calculators get me to 100%. I am sorry.

LOL thanks ObGyn ! thats why we love the ultraconservative that you are

 

[DeborahB]

I just thought of this because it doesn't always get factored in... Your expenses can be adjusted. You can cut travel and entertainment, or buy fewer clothes - whatever is an expense you can live without. Right now I'm spending a lot more on travel than I will in a few years (I think). But I want to do it while I have the energy. As I get older I expect my expenses will drop (unless I need long term care). Maybe one car... Who knows. But I could cut thousands out of the next 12 months and still be a happy camper (although one who stayed home more).

 

[NanoSour]

L&L,

Where do I find the Vanguard calculator?

 

[rbmrtn]

If I assume Obamacare subsidy I get 100% to age 100 in Firecalc, 95% to age 95 in Vanguard, and 92% to age 90 in FIDO.

The BS bucket is feeling awfully heavy after running those numbers !

Are you carrying the obamacare cost all the way to 95? medicare would take over @65 should that should be a big step change down ( assuming medicare is still around ).

As another post mentioned, I think you are over doing the contingency numbers, maybe double dipping in some places. Like the 150k for home expenses... for 150k I could buy a brand new house. So far in 12 years I've done less than 2K, and 1200 of that was new AC compressor.

 

[daylatedollarshort]

The stress is more than I want to deal with. Its unhealthy. I don't enjoy getting up in the mornings anymore. Perhaps all I need is a different job. I've considered that option also. It sould be a tradeoff of of 3:1 years. Am I willing to work 3 or 6 more years somewhere else rather than put up with the BS here for 1 or 2 more ? I'd rather be free (but who wouldn't) and the numbers are close enough that "I think I can" but I'm afraid of making the decision on my own. Yeah, I know - I'm looking for a scapegoat, I get that.

We just cut our expenses until the calculators all came out to 100%. Have you read Your Money or Your Life? If not, it has some good food for thought that might help with your decision.

 

[Chuckanut]

We just cut our expenses until the calculators all came out to 100%. Have you read Your Money or Your Life? If not, it has some good food for thought that might help with your decision.

+1

100% success rate is an illusion. There are so many assumption made with these calculators and so many exogenous factors that can mess things up. They are certainly a useful tool. But don't attribute any divine guidance to them. One thing that is 100% certain is that had I waited for three calculators to all show 100% success, I would have given two or more years of my life to work, and traded good experiences for carrying an overflowing BS bucket.

 

[Huston55]

Timo, I'm now going to raise the bar for the expectations of what my husband says about me to include admitting that I, too, walk on water.

Sarah-

I know he thinks it...even if he doesn't say it out loud.

 

[Live And Learn]

L&L,

Where do I find the Vanguard calculator?

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/retirement/nearing/when-can-i-retire


It runs 5000 simulations, uses your AA, but assumes static spending. Good enough for a ballpark and comparison

 

[Live And Learn]

Are you carrying the obamacare cost all the way to 95? medicare would take over @65 should that should be a big step change down ( assuming medicare is still around )..

At age 67 I take it down to 15k per year. I've assumed they will raise the age to full retirement age. The 15k came from the Fidelity article that said a married couple will need 240 over 20 years. Being me, I added a 3k contingency

As another post mentioned, I think you are over doing the contingency numbers, maybe double dipping in some places. Like the 150k for home expenses... for 150k I could buy a brand new house. So far in 12 years I've done less than 2K, and 1200 of that was new AC compressor.

The 150k covered 2 roofs (one on current home before I sell it, and one roof on new downsized home), 2 replacement cars (used), 3 AC units (2 on current house and 1 on new), 35k for new kitchen and bathrooms on the new house, 10k in moving expenses and 12k in new furniture for the new house. I've definitely double dipped with the 3k "one time" expenses.

I've done about 80k in improvements and repairs in my current house over 10 years. 8k was flooring (discretionary), 6k was rescreening of the lanai (discretionary to some degree). The rest was pretty mandatory. I still have my 1980 kitchen and bathrooms. But you're right - I've never had to spend that much on the two houses I had before this.

Good feedback. Thanks

 

[REWahoo]

At age 67 I take it down to 15k per year.

Way too much at age 67, about right at age 87, far too little at age 97.

 

[Live And Learn]

We just cut our expenses until the calculators all came out to 100%. Have you read Your Money or Your Life? If not, it has some good food for thought that might help with your decision.

I get to 97% on all three if I (a) remove my 200k contingency for a 10% market drop and (b) keep my MAGI below 60k and get HI premium subsidies. I guess the real question is .... are those two changes "reasonable".

 

[daylatedollarshort]

I will read the book - I haven't yet. As for cutting my expenses, I guess I'm choosing to work to fund the nicities I have in my budget (3k annual travel, 3k annual cash "allowance" for DH and I. Will I spend all that ? Probably not. Would I like the option ? you bet ! These things are actually more than I spend today - I haven't have TIME to spend or travel because of work. But you do give me food for thought. Perhaps it is just a matter of tweaking here and there.

Mental note to get the book from the Library !

You might also find it helpful to compare your planned annual expenses to the households in the Consumer Expenditure Survey. As other posters have mentioned, some of your contingencies and budget numbers are probably fairly high compared to what other households actually spend, especially if you look at the tables by age group.

 

[mathjak107]

there is a big flaw in trying to use the ces survey. it may falsely draw the conclusion we spend less as we age.

the issue is it does not follow the same folks through the different ages, they are totally different groups of people.

the problem is each age group has its own cultural and income differences. the older folks may have been depression kids . they may have spent less their entire lives not just now.

as each group leaves the work force they had higher and higher wages and therefore different social security and income levels.

what is being perceived as spending less with age may be only an income adjustment.

the older folks get less therefore they spend less regardless of age.

we really do not know how any age group will alter spending if at all since no study ever was done with any group all the way through.

no question we may not travel or go out to eat as much but if we have the dough it gets spent on others in our families or healthcare or charities .

 

[Live And Learn]

there is a big flaw in trying to use the ces survey. it may falsely draw the conclusion we spend less as we age..

I did look at it and I'm fairly average once I adjust for a couple of very large differences (HI is 4k in the CES survey -- I WISH !), I don't have a mortgage, and I can't find vacations.

I think the data is useful for things like home maintenance costs and perhaps things like furniture and appliance replacements. ie: the things that I have called "future one time expenses". Totally agree that I may not be average but the CES data will at least give me a place to determine if I'm in the right ballpark.