when to buy GE

After the Jack Welch financial games it would take some selling to get me to buy.
 
aja8888 said:
Will someone please announce when it will be the right time to buy GE again? :)
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As a business with 7 Billion in Cash Flow and 8.8 Billion shares and their Pension issues to arrive at a value higher than 15-18 dollars per share would require a very optimistic view of prospects for GE, I think at 15-18 it would be fairly valued. Because of it's long term reputation it trades higher but it will trend to 15-18 if nothing changes in the next 12-18 months
 
Saw this article a couple days ago. What a dog!

"Since former CEO Jeff Immelt took the helm in September 2001, the stock is down more than 40 percent and has posted a negative return even after reinvesting its juicy dividends."

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-results/ge-vows-20-billion-asset-sales-sweeping-change-as-profit-falls-idUSKBN1CP1AO?il=0
 
Shanky said:
I am a buyer at $8 which won't be for another 4 weeks.
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My basis in the share of GE I own is about $8.50. It's been painful to watch it drop. Have been holding on as not to create a sizable tax event for this year.
 
RE2Boys said:
My basis in the share of GE I own is about $8.50. It's been painful to watch it drop. Have been holding on as not to create a sizable tax event for this year.
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Avoiding taxes is not a good reason to hold a stock. Based on price of $28, at $21.50 today you've already taken a $7.50 (23%) haircut on the price. Conversely, if you would have sold at $28 you would have had a gain of $19.50 a share and taxes at 25% would have been about $5/share.

And it doesn't have to be an all or nothing, could have sold a portion of the holdings.

After holding this pig for 3 years I finally sold it off myself several months ago. Got tired to watching the falling knife on this.
 
Another company that did a lot of stock buybacks back when the price was higher!

Cash flow problems - I bet they wish that hadn't blown all that cash on buybacks!

In the first half of 2017, General Electric (GE) paid dividends of $4.2 billion and bought back common stock worth $3.6 billion. Despite the sharp fall in GE’s price, the company repurchased equity shares worth $1.3 billion in the second quarter. It was much less than the $2.3 billion buyback in the first quarter of 2017.
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http://marketrealist.com/2017/09/general-electric-what-it-has-returned-to-shareholders-in-2017/
 
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Danmar said:
Right. That’s exactly what my in laws did. Cost basis about $6. Better question might be “when to sell”?
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I'm pretty sure that over this time period counting my dividends my cost basis has to be below $0. Not sure how to calculate it though.
 
Finally dumped my GE today. Not much. Only 80 shares. Needed the loss to balance the gains for the year. I will leave it on my "watch" list. It was about 1% of my "play" account.
 
aja8888 said:
Will someone please announce when it will be the right time to buy GE again? :)
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Based on the earnings conference call and forecast for the next quarter, I would expect some support at $15.50-$16. I previously was looking at the $19.50-$20 range for a trading buy. With tax loss season upon us, don't be surprised to see the $19.50 range over the next few weeks. I'm maintaining my position on my notes that mature in 2018 and 2022. Ironically even GEB, GEH and GEK with their relatively low coupons have been a better investment over the last 4 years than GE common stock.
 
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Whenever you want to.
 
Broke through support at $20 this morning, it tried doing a chin-up to $20 again but couldn't hold. $18 is possibility on this. And strangely a dividend cut may be a signal for people to buy back in.
 
bobandsherry said:
Broke through support at $20 this morning, it tried doing a chin-up to $20 again but couldn't hold. $18 is possibility on this. And strangely a dividend cut may be a signal for people to buy back in.
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If the dividend is cut, it will be a $11-12 stock. The 2018 estimates are $1.15 vs $1.07 for 2017. At current prices GE is not a bargain. I expect to see this stock down to $15 in December.
 
The dividend is cut, in the announcement the new CEO promised a return to greatness by reducing the company to 3 main areas of business and exiting all other businesses. Also in cutting the dividend in 1/2 they promised improved shareholder performance and in lowering the forecast for the coming year promised making targets is a key objective going forward. Sometimes reality is the best comedy....
 
I see it just dropped down below my $19.50 buy price, so I guess I own a few hundred more shares GE stock now. It's in my Roth IRA gambling account, so it's not an impact on our net worth. Now I'll have to figure out a sell point and set a limit order. Then forget about it and check back in a year or two and see what happened.
 
Not there yet IMO but that's a step closer to the time-to-buy.
 
marko said:
But does a lower dividend change your calculation?
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No, since I'm looking for growth and have expected GE to bottom shortly after this dividend cut. My limit order to buy is in.
 
GrayHare said:
No, since I'm looking for growth and have expected GE to bottom shortly after this dividend cut. My limit order to buy is in.
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This is an interesting comment, what growth can be seen for GE when the CEO says they will have negative growth. If you mean value of the underlying assets perhaps I could understand that but there will be no growth in financial performance for a couple of years.

In addition, the company said it will "address overcapacity" and simplify its portfolio. While it slashed its dividend in half, the company also set a $3 billion share buyback priority. Addressing its pension plan shortfalls, Flannery said the company will borrow $6 billion to take advantage of the current rate environment.

The board of directors will be reduced from 18 to 12, with three new members slated "with relevant industry experience." Directors will have 15-year term limits.

"We have not performed well for our owners," Flannery said. "This is unacceptable, and the management team is completely devoted to doing what it takes to correct that."

Employee bonuses also will be restructured, with elimination of the three-year cash long-term performance awards and a switch to a program that conforms to "market norms."

The dividend allocation will be $4.2 billion for 2018, pushing it from above 100 percent of free cash flow to 60 percent to 70 percent,
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Let’s look at what they are saying: we will have 6-7 billion of cash flow, 4.2 billion will be for dividends and 3 billion for share buybacks, meaning they will utilize 100% of cash flow for those two financial gerrymandering which does zero for growth of the business. Additionally they will BORROW to pay their pension expenses, note one could also look and say they are borrowing to pay their dividend, but semantically let’s give them a break. They will be exiting businesses and have overcapacity issues.

How is this ANY different than what they have done for the past years, it is not, it is a downsizing of the previous strategy because cash flow has been cut in half and for anyone looking for this to work you are praying a subpar management team can find value with no funds with which to fix the actual business, a recipe for disaster. While GE as a business is probably worth 15-18 per share with this plan it would need to be near 12 to be a decent value because management is slowly destroying all it’s money making revenues by increasing debt while shrinking assets
 
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