Thoughts on TESLA

[oneill225]

It’s “outrageous” to the estimated 90% of the population who can’t afford a Tesla (well over $35K) who only have to wait 5 minutes for refuel the ICE or hybrid. More affordable EVs don’t get anything like 300 mile range. Many/most Tesla buyers are eco-chics.

Missing the point. The question is whether potential EV buyers (who can afford it) would still prefer a hybrid if charging and range issues go away (due to better batteries and faster, more available charging options). I am saying that these are the only advantages of hybrid over EV.

In any case, we are talking about a relatively small percentage of buyers (probably the last to convert to full EV) who drive cross-country on a regular basis. In our house, we will likely have an EV (next year) and one of our current ICE vehicles. A few years from now the ICE will go away, as well.

I do not dispute that there will be those who will hang on to their ICE/hybrid cars until the bitter end, but the ultimate future is full EV, not hybrid and the required oil/gas infrastructure needed to keep them on the roads.

 

[braumeister]

the ultimate future is full EV, not hybrid and the required oil/gas infrastructure needed to keep them on the roads.

I think most of us would agree with that. I certainly do.
All I'm saying is that the transition period will probably be a lot longer than current EV enthusiasts think and hope.

 

[mpeirce]

...but the ultimate future is full EV, not hybrid and the required oil/gas infrastructure needed to keep them on the roads.

OK, "ultimate future" I suppose.

But in my lifetime, I seriously doubt it. Gasoline is just too cheap and the infrastructure is in place. Unless the government steps in and forces the issue the economics that I'm aware of just don't indicate a massive switch over to pure EV in the next few decades.

 

[oneill225]

How many miles I drive on an average day is irrelevant. When I make a long trip, which I do a number of times every year, I would definitely resent having to spend that long on a charge. And it wouldn't be 300 miles, either -- much less if that's the range. Even now, you have to plan your fuel stops to be sure you have enough in your tank for what you're doing. And charging stations won't be as ubiquitous as gas stations for a very long time indeed.

Like I have said, some will hold on to ICE and hybrids for as long as possible. I am talking about the more common driver who actually takes meal/rest breaks every 4 hours or so. For those people, a 310 mile Tesla currently meets the standard without irritation. Future cars will be able to do even more. You are the exception to the rule.

 

[braumeister]

You are the exception to the rule.

Story of my life.

 

[Midpack]

Missing the point. The question is whether potential EV buyers (who can afford it) would still prefer a hybrid if charging and range issues go away (due to better batteries and faster, more available charging options). I am saying that these are the only advantages of hybrid over EV.

In any case, we are talking about a relatively small percentage of buyers (probably the last to convert to full EV) who drive cross-country on a regular basis. In our house, we will likely have an EV (next year) and one of our current ICE vehicles. A few years from now the ICE will go away, as well.

I do not dispute that there will be those who will hang on to their ICE/hybrid cars until the bitter end, but the ultimate future is full EV, not hybrid and the required oil/gas infrastructure needed to keep them on the roads.

There are several assumptions in your POV that aren’t universally accepted. You may be on the right track, but lots of this remains to be seen before it’s clear full EV is the future.

 

[Texas Proud]

The only wildcard to this is if the political winds blow such that huge changes are made to laws. For example, an extreme hike in gas taxes. Or maybe a "Cash for ICE Cars." Etc. That could speed things up a bit.

Yes, other countries do some of what you say...


From what I read, Japan has a high tax on any old car.... well, just looked it up and it is a tough inspection that cost some money... either way, they can force the decision to go one way as opposed to another....


https://www.nytimes.com/1993/09/12/world/why-the-cars-in-japan-look-just-like-new.html

 

[ERD50]

....
I don't understand your predictions for hybrids. They are needed by some in the short-term, but who will want one when range and charging issues go away for full EV? ...

It is hard to take you seriously when your 'questions' are so loaded.

That's a bit like saying "who wouldn't buy XYZ stock if they knew it was going to double in 6 months?"

I see there have been plenty of replies similar to the one I would make, so I'll leave it at that. Ground has been covered - OK, except for my other issue - unless we have an excess of RE for all those EVs, next gen hybrids will likely be better for the environment than those EVs. I like the environment.

-ERD50

 

[Texas Proud]

Missing the point. The question is whether potential EV buyers (who can afford it) would still prefer a hybrid if charging and range issues go away (due to better batteries and faster, more available charging options). I am saying that these are the only advantages of hybrid over EV.

In any case, we are talking about a relatively small percentage of buyers (probably the last to convert to full EV) who drive cross-country on a regular basis. In our house, we will likely have an EV (next year) and one of our current ICE vehicles. A few years from now the ICE will go away, as well.

I do not dispute that there will be those who will hang on to their ICE/hybrid cars until the bitter end, but the ultimate future is full EV, not hybrid and the required oil/gas infrastructure needed to keep them on the roads.

But even the chart that was earlier by someone who thinks it will be all EV showed that about 50% of vehicles SOLD in 2040 will be ICE...



The conversion to 'all' EV will take more than a few decades...


So I do not think your stmt of people hanging on until the bitter end makes sense... they are not 'hanging on'.... they are making rational decisions...



BTW, you still put down that when this and when that it will be... but as pointed out many times those problems will not go away for many people... they might be reduced a bit here and there, but not go away...

 

[Chuckanut]

Missing the point. The question is whether potential EV buyers (who can afford it) would still prefer a hybrid if charging and range issues go away (due to better batteries and faster, more available charging options). I am saying that these are the only advantages of hybrid over EV.

In any case, we are talking about a relatively small percentage of buyers (probably the last to convert to full EV) who drive cross-country on a regular basis. In our house, we will likely have an EV (next year) and one of our current ICE vehicles. A few years from now the ICE will go away, as well.

I do not dispute that there will be those who will hang on to their ICE/hybrid cars until the bitter end, but the ultimate future is full EV, not hybrid and the required oil/gas infrastructure needed to keep them on the roads.

With all do respect you seem to be thinking like everybody else leads your life. We don't.

 

[oneill225]

With all do respect you seem to be thinking like everybody else leads your life. We don't.

Not everybody, but a significant number of American families have at least two cars. Odds are the they don't currently have an EV and odds are that they will not replace both of their current cars at the same time.

I point this out to counter the idea that people will not be buying EVs in the short term because EVs cannot go cross country without better charging options. If there is still an ICE (or hybrid) car in addition to the EV, they could just take that car for a long trip.

Over time (3-5 years?) the range and charging issues will fade to the point of no longer being a factor for long range trips.

 

[Midpack]

I point this out to counter the idea that people will not be buying EVs in the short term because EVs cannot go cross country without better charging options. If there is still an ICE (or hybrid) car in addition to the EV, they could just take that car for a long trip.

Over time (3-5 years?) the range and charging issues will fade to the point of no longer being a factor for long range trips.

The ‘range and charging issues will fade within 3-5 years’ for a meaningful segment of the population? OK, Elon.

 

[NW-Bound]

... the ultimate future is full EV, not hybrid and the required oil/gas infrastructure needed to keep them on the roads.

I think most of us would agree with that. I certainly do.
All I'm saying is that the transition period will probably be a lot longer than current EV enthusiasts think and hope.

+1

The EVs will need more infrastructure to provide them with juice, and that has to be built yet.

 

[corn18]

The reason charging stations can pop up quickly is that they are pretty simple. A gas station is a very expensive capital expense requiring dedicated real estate. The states could change the world by just installing charging stations at all the rest areas on the interstates.

 

[NW-Bound]

Not in places where the grid is already loaded and barely covers residential consumption. And do we have excess electric generation?

 

[NW-Bound]

I made a post on the required infrastructure for EVs a while back, using just a back of the envelope calculation.

The following is post #304. This current one is #916.

This is an interesting subject, so it's worthwhile for me to invest a few minutes to look up a few facts.

Total car miles driven in 2017: 3.22 trillion miles
Total electric energy consumed: 3.82 trillion kWh

The Nissan Leaf uses about 340Wh per mile. So, assuming all cars are that small, the total annual energy required is 3.22 trillion x 0.34 kWh = 1.09 trillion kWh.

To that, we need to add energy used by commercial vehicles, which is about 40% of all private cars, bringing it up to 1.09 x 1.4 = 1.5 trillion kWh.

That is about 1/2 of all energy produced and consumed right now. So, the rough order for all vehicles to be EV is that the grid and generating capacity needs to be increased by 1/2. That can be done, but takes a lot of money, and has to be done over few decades.

 

[aja8888]

Originally Posted by NW-Bound

This is an interesting subject, so it's worthwhile for me to invest a few minutes to look up a few facts.

Total car miles driven in 2017: 3.22 trillion miles
Total electric energy consumed: 3.82 trillion kWh

The Nissan Leaf uses about 340Wh per mile. So, assuming all cars are that small, the total annual energy required is 3.22 trillion x 0.34 kWh = 1.09 trillion kWh.

To that, we need to add energy used by commercial vehicles, which is about 40% of all private cars, bringing it up to 1.09 x 1.4 = 1.5 trillion kWh.

That is about 1/2 of all energy produced and consumed right now. So, the rough order for all vehicles to be EV is that the grid and generating capacity needs to be increased by 1/2. That can be done, but takes a lot of money, and has to be done over a few decades.

It's just these darn facts that EV fanboys never want to address when they preach their love for idealism.

 

[Oz investor]

It's just these darn facts that EV fanboys never want to address when they preach their love for idealism.

had a lot of experience with the Apple version ( of fanboys )

the best you can do is take a deep breath and venture elsewhere .

yes i invest in technology EVs will use ( and a tiny EV company )

but i won't be alive to see it become the dominant transport energy

too much time has been wasted in the past for that

 

[samclem]

Liquid fuel is a wonderfully flexible way to store energy for vehicles. When we price out the cost of adding electrical capacity to supply all these vehicle charging stations, or need to figure out how to store up electricity in an economical way, we'll appreciate this even more.

When a tanker truck pulls up, in a few minutes it can offload 11,000 gallons of fuel. That's enough to provide a typical 15 gallon fill up to over 700 cars. It doesn't matter when they come, and they will each spend only a few minutes to refill.

It's trivial to add a few more pumps to a typical gas station to handle extra demand a few times per year (e.g heavy driving on holiday weekends). It is >not< trivial to add more power lines to send more power to a service station for use a few times per year. The only thing more aggravating than waiting 30 minutes for your EV to get a partial charge will be having to wait behind 2 other people getting their own "quick" charge of 30 minutes each on Memorial Day. Oh, and among the places I'd least like to wait would be a typical highway rest stop. "Honey, I'm on my third cup of machine coffee and have almost memorized this fascinating state road map. Did you know that the Iowa state bird is the Eastern Goldfinch?"

 

[aja8888]

I was in Jal, New Mexico last week. There were no EV's to be seen anywhere, all day. Just pickup trucks and oilfield equipment. As a matter of fact, once you left Jal, there was nothing to be seen for a hundred plus miles in ANY direction. Nothing but scrub growth and sand. Good thing I was driving a Ford pickup with a 20+ gallon fuel tank.

Lots of the West is like this. And lots of people live and work here. Every day.

 

[Oz investor]

I was in Jal, New Mexico last week. There were no EV's to be seen anywhere, all day. Just pickup trucks and oilfield equipment. As a matter of fact, once you left Jal, there was nothing to be seen for a hundred plus miles in ANY direction. Nothing but scrub growth and sand. Good thing I was driving a Ford pickup with a 20+ gallon fuel tank.

Lots of the West is like this. And lots of people live and work here. Every day.

in Australia as well

yes EVs should carve a niche but much work still needs to be done ( even for hybrid dominance )

 

[Mr. Tightwad]

It’s “outrageous” to the estimated 90% of the population who can’t afford a Tesla (well over $35K) and only need 5 minutes for refuel their ICE or hybrid. More affordable EVs don’t get anything like 300 mile range. Many/most Tesla buyers are eco-chics, notably the ones who brag about zero emissions...

The Hyundai Kona ( a small SUV, something along the size of a RAV-4) will be available for purchase in a few months. 250 mile range. Price expected to be in the low 30's. After 10,450 in credits/rebates, actual price will be in the low 20's.

Some will only be able to afford these EV's. Others can afford Tesla'a or the Audi SUV that is coming next year. Some who are in the area AJA8888 mentioned will always prefer a Ford 150.

And it takes me 10 seconds to plug my Model 3 in to charge

 

[mpeirce]

The only thing more aggravating than waiting 30 minutes for your EV to get a partial charge will be having to wait behind 2 other people getting their own "quick" charge of 30 minutes each on Memorial Day.

Or imagine getting out of town for an evacuation.

Maybe there's a hurricane that made a surprise turn and is now heading your way. Oops, you only have a half charge and can't get out of the danger zone without a quick charge. Of course there are a "few" others who need that same quick charge. hmmm

Not a common occurrence, but one people will think about if they live in certain areas.

 

[MichaelB]

Or imagine getting out of town for an evacuation.

Maybe there's a hurricane that made a surprise turn and is now heading your way. Oops, you only have a half charge and can't get out of the danger zone without a quick charge. Of course there are a "few" others who need that same quick charge. hmmm

Not a common occurrence, but one people will think about if they live in certain areas.

I think this is the biggest shortcoming. For the most part it is a second car limited to local use.

 

[oneill225]

in Australia as well
yes EVs should carve a niche but much work still needs to be done ( even for hybrid dominance )

Where there is a need, there will be a supply. New gas plants will be built at a pace to keep up with demand. Why would they not?

Tesla up 16% pre market.