Thoughts on TESLA

[kcowan]

Habits regarding body movements are really strong.

Yes we go through an adjustment period when we move houses twice a year (south to north). It is especially troublesome finding seldom used items in the kitchen. I suspect that no attempt has been made by Tesla to compensate, especially when moving from an ICE to a Tesla regularly.

 

[bobandsherry]

More "good news"

Tesla Backtracks on Self-Driving, Killing Another Growth Story

https://www.gurufocus.com/news/831287/tesla-backtracks-on-selfdriving-killing-another-growth-story

Tesla’s latest backtracking is bad news for the company, and its stock, for a number of reasons. Indeed, virtually all the leading experts believe self-driving cars are several years,*if not a decade or more, away. Thus, Musk’s statement is more than merely aggressive;*it is downright fanciful, as we explained in a recent research note.

 

[samclem]

It is time for Elon to declare victory on the self-driving car thing. In fact, Teslas are already a step beyond that and are autonomous. Teslas are already 100% successful as autonomous vehicles (for the 95% of the time that they sit parked and uninhabited). The people who wanted a self-driving Tesla got a 95% solution. They should stop complaining.

 

[bobandsherry]

Competition... If this becomes reality it will give Model 3 a run for the money.

Fisker, a new electric car startup founded by famed designer Henrik Fisker, is going to unveil a new ~$40,000 all-electric car, according to the CEO.

https://electrek.co/2019/03/13/fisker-40000-electric-car/

 

[cyber888]

The Model Y Crossover will be released today. I think it will be a bigger hit than Model 3, because US consumers love SUVs.

 

[ERD50]

The Model Y Crossover will be released today. I think it will be a bigger hit than Model 3, because US consumers love SUVs.

Then why wasn't the Model 3 an SUV?

-ERD50

 

[Chuckanut]

A video claims to show a Tesla avoiding an accident from a car nearly sideswiping the Tesla.

https://youtu.be/BdpoInUSS_g

 

[Totoro]

Then why wasn't the Model 3 an SUV?

I'm stumped too. Most EVs in Europe are actually cross-overs (Kia Niro, Jaguar iPace, Audi E-tron). The compacts and hatchbacks will arrive in 2020.

 

[NW-Bound]

I am guessing that the advance in performance of the battery as well as its price drop now makes an electric SUV more economically feasible.

SUVs have a taller profile than sedans do, and the higher aerodynamic drag cuts down on the cruising range with the same battery capacity, making it harder to sell.

PS. I recall reading on the Web a Prius owner mentioning that just having a roof rack cut down on his range. When he put something up there, oh la la, he worried about not making it home from the store.

 

[Independent]

Then why wasn't the Model 3 an SUV?

My guess is that back in 2013, when Musk was making the decision, sedans were still outselling crossovers by a comfortable margin. Musk missed the momentum and thought he should lead with sedans. 2013 U.S. Vehicle Sales Rankings By Model – Top 270 Best-Selling Vehicles In America – Every Vehicle Ranked | GCBC

 

[aja8888]

Was there an unveiling for the new Tesla Model Y today?

Edit: I see it's at 8 PM PST.

 

[ERD50]

Was there an unveiling for the new Tesla Model Y today?

Edit: I see it's at 8 PM PST.

Be interesting to see the reaction at the market open. I just skimmed a bit, but what I saw doesn't really look like a crossover/SUV to me, looks a lot like the Model 3. So if that distinction is supposed to push sales, I don't see it.

-ERD50

 

[bobandsherry]

Be interesting to see the reaction at the market open. I just skimmed a bit, but what I saw doesn't really look like a crossover/SUV to me, looks a lot like the Model 3. So if that distinction is supposed to push sales, I don't see it.

-ERD50

The pre-market reaction has been pretty negative, down almost $9 or 3%. Guess we'll have to see how the stock moves during the day once the fan boys get up, maybe they'll have different reaction and drive up the price today.

 

[Aerides]

The SUV is growing in popularity globally, much of that after the model 3 decision point. It's going to be 75% the same, including the chassis, so sounds like the smaller SUV models from Honda and others that were designed Car-Up.

Per Quartz:

"SUV’s share of the global auto market has risen from 22% to more than a third since 2014"​

"Musk predicted the Model Y would sell more units than the Model 3 and Model S, combined."​

I think he's right; this is the first time I'm remotely interested. Still the Model 3 did well last year, and that's before the price drops, so I'd guess similarly good stats for 2019 sales:

"With some 140,000 units sold in 2018, the Model 3 was the best-selling electric car in the US last year...and the fifth best-selling sedan overall. The Model 3 accounted for 20% of the 700,000 mid-priced sedans...sold in the US in 2018."​

https://qz.com/1573818/tesla-launches-the-model-y-suv/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=daily-brief

 

[bobandsherry]

The SUV is growing in popularity globally, much of that after the model 3 decision point. It's going to be 75% the same, including the chassis, so sounds like the smaller SUV models from Honda and others that were designed Car-Up.

Per Quartz:

"SUV’s share of the global auto market has risen from 22% to more than a third since 2014"​

"Musk predicted the Model Y would sell more units than the Model 3 and Model S, combined."​

I think he's right; this is the first time I'm remotely interested. Still the Model 3 did well last year, and that's before the price drops, so I'd guess similarly good stats for 2019 sales:

"With some 140,000 units sold in 2018, the Model 3 was the best-selling electric car in the US last year...and the fifth best-selling sedan overall. The Model 3 accounted for 20% of the 700,000 mid-priced sedans...sold in the US in 2018."​

https://qz.com/1573818/tesla-launches-the-model-y-suv/?utm_source=email&utm_medium=daily-brief

You may be interested as a purchaser, but how about as an investor?

For me, as an investor, I'm concerned with the movement of the delivery date from first half of 2020 (which Musk just recently stated) to now being late 2020. That's a pretty big slip in delivery date in just a few weeks. Add that Musk/Tesla is consistently aggressive in their dates and typically will miss those targets, this is more like 2021. So most likely that puts Tesla into a position where there is much more competition, especially in that segment.

Then consider that, given as you noted, they Y shares much of the same platform as the Model 3, and this announcement, IMHO, could very well cannibalize the Model 3 sales, giving people cause to defer their buying decision.

And then lastly, consider that any tax subsidies are gone at the end of this year for Tesla vehicles, and then consider that their competition will enter the market with being able to offer those incentives, well that just puts further pressure on Tesla pricing to compete.

So as a purchaser, it's all "good news. But as an investor I feel there are many challenges to overcome and competition that will be crowding this space, I'm still negative on the stock given the current valuation. I've been saying that for over a year and so far, as a long term investor, I've been right to stay out of the stock. I guess it's a 50/50 chance, so far I've called heads each time and won, maybe next flip will show tails.

 

[Aerides]

You may be interested as a purchaser, but how about as an investor?

I had a handful of Tesla shares which I sold last year when I decided I dislike Elon enough to dump them.

I have only a small number of individual stocks, and would no longer even risk play money on Tesla.

 

[kcowan]

TSLA has always been a speculation, priced to perfection. By 2020, we will know the outcome.

 

[bobandsherry]

TSLA has always been a speculation, priced to perfection. By 2020, we will know the outcome.

I'd say to perfection and then a premium on top of that. However, as an investor, you betting on the over or under?

 

[bobandsherry]

Perhaps more "good news"....

The Tesla Network Is Dead

Summary

-On March 6, Tesla removed all reference to the Tesla Network from its website.

-The Tesla Network is meant to be an autonomous car service that would eventually compete with Uber and Lyft in the ride-sharing space.

-Tesla has made big promises about its autonomous driving program, but it appears to be falling ever farther behind the leaders in the technology.

-Tesla's valuation is based in part on future mobility-as-a-service revenues. These are unlikely to materialize anytime soon, if ever.

-As analysts come to realize that the Tesla Network is not arriving soon (or perhaps ever), they will have to revise their price targets. Expect negative pressure on the stock.

 

[kgtest]

I was not impressed with that model Y debut. Then again, I've never been impressed with literally ALL of the Apple product debut's...difference being, I own APPL, I don't THINK I own TSLA, gotta double check my ETF and Index funds.


You can only offer the same exact looking car for so long. It looks like a mix of a dodge neon and a chevy traverse. EEEK. I'll keep my full frame trucks.



Is this the end of the line for Elon? *No pun intended


I am excited with what he's done with the Rockets though.

 

[aja8888]

Model Y Letdown

Kind of a letdown as I was expecting something like a Rav4 in size and shape. Maybe a Rav4 Hybrid is a better solution. Hey, Toyota is selling them like crazy these days.

 

[RobbieB]

My friend just ordered a model Y over the internet for delivery in 2020.

 

[kgtest]

My friend just ordered a model Y over the internet for delivery in 2020.

Were they sober? Different strokes..

 

[aja8888]

My friend just ordered a model Y over the internet for delivery in 2020.

Robby, there is still time for you to step up and place an order too!

 

[Texas Proud]

I was not impressed with that model Y debut. Then again, I've never been impressed with literally ALL of the Apple product debut's...difference being, I own APPL, I don't THINK I own TSLA, gotta double check my ETF and Index funds.


You can only offer the same exact looking car for so long. It looks like a mix of a dodge neon and a chevy traverse. EEEK. I'll keep my full frame trucks.



Is this the end of the line for Elon? *No pun intended


I am excited with what he's done with the Rockets though.

I would bet that you own a fund that has it.... heck one of my funds has it in the top 10 holding!!! I think it is the extended blah blah fund... market minus S&P 500 IIRC...