Thoughts on TESLA

[Running_Man]

Goodness. Why don't you apply some of your genius to starting a major corporation that can pay these poor Tesla workers a higher wage? Otherwise, they will continue to suffer without options. How hard can it be? Currently advise financially for a company that has grown 50% annually last two years and pays 40% higher hourly wages than TESLA

For those reveling in Tesla's weak 1Q, it was anticipated. If the second quarter is a big letdown, I will join you in predicting their imminent collapse. Until then, take advantage of this over-reaction by picking up Tesla shares at a discount.
If this was anticipated why did you jump on shares @ 293 in the middle of the quarter, saying in a few weeks they would be much higher?

Tesla does not operate in a vacuum. They are currently [-]producing[/-] losing money on quality EVs at a pace unmatched by any other manufacturer and will continue to have little competition while they complete a new factory in China. Everyone else is playing catch-up while Tesla's financial position keeps falling further behind.

Fixed it for reality

 

[ERD50]

Please everyone, the mods have put up multiple warnings about closing this thread. Let's keep it civil!

I really don't think describing other posters as people who "belittle those people who do choose to own them" is helping to keep things cool. Are there any actual examples of that? Who, Where? And if so, maybe that poster should be addressed, rather than painting everyone else with a broad brush?

Or assuming anyone who criticizes Tesla actions is a "sympathetic former oil and gas employee" or short?

Or saying these posters are "reveling in Tesla's weak 1Q". It's news, it's being discussed, it's relevant. Maybe it would not get quite so much attention if there weren't so many claims about things like 'exponential growth'?

How about addressing the content of the posts, rather than ad hominem attacks on the posters who have something to say that doesn't fit your world view? And how about providing backup for claims made?

This thread would be a lot shorter and to the point if there wasn't so much back-forth over claims from thin air.

And for those who keep telling us they've made money on Tesla stock, I'd sure like to see the buy points of what they currently own. This is the "Stock Picking" forum after all.

Thanks, -ERD50

 

[oneill225]

Fixed it for reality

"Currently advise financially for a company that has grown 50% annually last two years and pays 40% higher hourly wages than TESLA"

Perfect. Have you "advised" this amazing company that they should hire away Tesla's impoverished serfs? Or, have you applied to Tesla to offer your wage driving advice?

Last time I checked, this was still a free country with unlimited opportunity for those willing to seek it. At the end of the day, a fair wage is decided between the employer and his/her employee. If your advice for Tesla is to greatly increase their employee costs during a period of heavy growth and debt, then I have little respect for your financial advice.

 

[oneill225]

And for those who keep telling us they've made money on Tesla stock, I'd sure like to see the buy points of what they currently own. This is the "Stock Picking" forum after all.
Thanks, -ERD50

To what end? Do you contend it is not possible? Are these claims fraudulent in your opinion?

I do not believe you currently hold or are interested in holding TSLA stock. Why should those who are willing to invest their money, produce "buy points" for you? These are serious questions. What would be the purpose?

 

[samclem]

"Currently advise financially for a company that has grown 50% annually last two years and pays 40% higher hourly wages than TESLA"

Perfect. Have you "advised" this amazing company that they should hire away Tesla's impoverished serfs? Or, have you applied to Tesla to offer your wage driving advice?

Last time I checked, this was still a free country with unlimited opportunity for those willing to seek it. At the end of the day, a fair wage is decided between the employer and his/her employee. If your advice for Tesla is to greatly increase their employee costs during a period of heavy growth and debt, then I have little respect for your financial advice.

I'm not sure this is helpful. I didn't see that Running Man said that Tesla workers were underpaid, he said they were paid less than others in the industry. That has a direct relationship to the quality of employees they are getting (or need?) and it also bears on the likely ability of the company to seek higher profits by cutting personnel costs.
Keeping things focused on this company, its products, its stock valuation, and relevant info on EVs, battery technology, etc will keep things productive.

 

[oneill225]

I'm not sure this is helpful. I didn't see that Running Man said that Tesla workers were underpaid, he said they were paid less than others in the industry. That has a direct relationship to the quality of employees they are getting (or need?) and it also bears on the likely ability of the company to seek higher profits by cutting personnel costs.

Well, if that was the only point, then I must have misunderstood. My mistake.
I would look at this as a plus for Tesla. The lowest employee costs in the industry while still being fairly compensated for their work. Good management.

 

[bobandsherry]

And for those who keep telling us they've made money on Tesla stock, I'd sure like to see the buy points of what they currently own. This is the "Stock Picking" forum after all.

Thanks, -ERD50

Heh.... I've inquired several times from those who are pro Tesla product if they own TSLA, so far found no one who admits to being long. I've played it several times as a TRADE, have made money. Bought last time when it dropped at $256, jumped out at a week later at $287. I know, i left a little $$$ on the table, but also had dry powder set aside for yet another play. I snagged some again today on another drop, in again at $262. I have high confidence that there will be those who are irrational on their buys and will push this back up for another trade. Keep taking advantage of the "good news" and may end up making enough to pay for a Tesla Model 3. [emoji41]

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
And for those who keep telling us they've made money on Tesla stock, I'd sure like to see the buy points of what they currently own. This is the "Stock Picking" forum after all.
Thanks, -ERD50

To what end? Do you contend it is not possible? Are these claims fraudulent in your opinion? ...

Again, it would be much more helpful, and would keep the thread more on point if posters would stop attacking other's motivations, or make assumptions about the post, and just address the post.

Of course I don't think it is impossible to make money on a/any volatile stock. Just buy lo and sell high. Easy. And a short can make money on a failing stock. Clearly it is possible, and I would never, and have never, claimed otherwise. And I would not, and have not said any claims to that effect made by any posters to this thread are fraudulent. Why even go there?

.... I do not believe you currently hold or are interested in holding TSLA stock. Why should those who are willing to invest their money, produce "buy points" for you? These are serious questions. What would be the purpose?

I've explained this before. I'm interested in the topic. I follow all sorts of topics that I'll never actually directly be involved in. Am I going to rebuild an old diesel train engine? No, but I follow and contribute to that thread as well as many other topics on the internet. For a stock picking thread to have any real purpose, it seems people should be willing to post information about their trades. Otherwise, it all sort of comes across as "I could pick up this house if I wanted to, I just don't want to" talk.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

Heh.... I've inquired several times from those who are pro Tesla product if they own TSLA, so far found no one who admits to being long. ...

I don't see anything odd about that. A company can make a product you love, but that doesn't mean you see the stock as a good buy.

And since I've gone to broad-based index funds/ETFs, it would take a lot for me to buy any individual stock, I just don't see the point. Never say never, but it would have to be something very unique for me to want to go into an individual issue.

I did it with AAPL, bought a lot within a hair of the low in 1987. Made a big bundle. Could have made an unbelievable bundle if I held longer, but I got out at 13x the low entry point, so I'm happy. But I really felt the stock was misunderstood by the masses. I doubt I'll ever feel so strongly about a stock again. Oh, and I don't use their products anymore either, though DW does (MacBook & iPad).

-ERD50

 

[ls99]

I think a more apt comparison is to Apple in 1985 when Jobs was ousted, Apple had more expensive products that were not differential enough for the price difference, this company may need the same thing and perhaps time away would do Elon and Tesla some good. But Apple almost went under before they came back with the products that were desired. But a capital raise will give TESLA time to sort this out. Perhaps they may go bigger than I think a 8-10 billion dollar raise would take away all concerns of bankruptcy. Eventually TESLA will be produced in the lowest wage country that can build them and they will become an import, that is inevitable.

Maybe so. Especially for the early adopters whose cars will certainly need parts and repairs. I do assume Tesla's car division is fixable, sort of like spaceX where elon is kept at arms length.
I am just considering whiz bang cars, though the Edsel was not a revolutionary drive train product. Except there the parent auto company did not sink, just a few their products. Then there was the Pinto but that was low cost car.
Given deep enough pockets a large car maker can survive loosing a few duds.
I'd be curious if NHTSA will look into the driver's inability to open doors of Tesla cars due to a likely electrical failure. One would reasonably expect that the car's door can be opened regarless of electric power availability. Seems that should be a fail safe design. Having worked in the railway industry, the ability to open doors in case of electrical failure was a prime safety requirement.
Knowing that electrical failure can prevent opening doors should be a prime deterrent to buying a tesla. Warning BAD LAnguage
https://twitter.com/stocksharks_/sta...159297/video/1

 

[bobandsherry]

I don't see anything odd about that. A company can make a product you love, but that doesn't mean you see the stock as a good buy.

And since I've gone to broad-based index funds/ETFs, it would take a lot for me to buy any individual stock, I just don't see the point. Never say never, but it would have to be something very unique for me to want to go into an individual issue.

I did it with AAPL, bought a lot within a hair of the low in 1987. Made a big bundle. Could have made an unbelievable bundle if I held longer, but I got out at 13x the low entry point, so I'm happy. But I really felt the stock was misunderstood by the masses. I doubt I'll ever feel so strongly about a stock again. Oh, and I don't use their products anymore either, though DW does (MacBook & iPad).

-ERD50

But to see no one here, in a stock picking forum, not raising their hand as being long just seems a bit strange. I have most my investments in funds, but have a portion set aside as my "fun money". It's enough to have some fun with making picks as I find an opportunity, but keeps me away from feeling the urge to play with the bigger pot.

 

[NW-Bound]

Fuel is much more expensive in the EU. 1.40 euro per liter vs. 0.64 in the USA, it adds up. One third of my car total cost is fuel. If you drive electric you can halve that cost easily.

We're pretty close to break-even in the better off countries for modest cars, including France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Ireland. Without factoring in subsidies.

If cost trends continue, electric cars will be de facto standard within 7 years, especially at the lower end for older cars that don't drive much: once depreciated, electrics have lower fixed costs and lower variable costs.

The cost of gasoline is high in Europe, but electricity is also more expensive there. For example, a kWh costs around €0.30 in Germany, which is about 3x the average cost in the US.

Perhaps you still see some gains in reducing operating costs with an EV. The initial purchasing cost cannot be ignored, however.

One thing that may help the EV market in Europe is that people do not routinely drive long distances. A car with a more limited range would be less expensive due to a smaller battery. Here in the US, people get "range anxiety" unless they have at least 300 miles of cruising range.

 

[Ready]

I have zero dollars invested in any individual stock and have always been a passive index fund investor. I have “invested” in the purchase of two Model 3 vehicles though, which I suppose I wouldn’t have done if I thought the company was likely to go under. It is important that Tesla sell lots of these cars to ensure that they will be around for warranty support and after warranty parts availability. The Model S and X were niche cars that didn’t sell enough volume to ensure long term success, so I avoided them. But the Model 3 seems to be selling enough for me to have confidence that either Tesla will be around for a long time, or someone will buy them out and keep the company running if need be.

Q1 numbers were disappointing and the market is reacting to it. But the company is still valued at $46B, which is higher than Ford Motors in spite of the vast difference in number of vehicles Ford sells compared to Tesla. So the market must still think that Tesla has a bright future if it thinks that a company that only sells a few hundred thousand cars per year is worth more than a company that sells 2 million cars in a year.

 

[samclem]

But the company is still valued at $46B, which is higher than Ford Motors in spite of the vast difference in number of vehicles Ford sells compared to Tesla. So the market must still think that Tesla has a bright future if it thinks that a company that only sells a few hundred thousand cars per year is worth more than a company that sells 2 million cars in a year.

It can be hard to know how much a stock price reflects faith in the company, and how much it reflects the belief in the continued future existence of stock buyers at a higher price. With dividend-paying stocks, the former is more important. With (speculative?) growth stocks like Tesla, usually not so much.

 

[kcowan]

I think the Mods chased the arguments over here by closing down the other thread so they have an obligation to keep this one civil without shutting it down too.

 

[Running_Man]

I would hope this thread remains open, a topic like this can go back and forth quite a bit and will be interesting as time goes by as a real life dissertation on TESLA. A bit of spirited disagreement will hopefully be allowed.

I would think this will continue on for several more years. Thinking optimistically, I would hope it continues at least until August 2025.

 

[braumeister]

I think the Mods chased the arguments over here by closing down the other thread so they have an obligation to keep this one civil without shutting it down too.

I'm sure what you meant is that those participating in this thread have an obligation to keep it civil to avoid shutting it down.

 

[ocean view]

That situation, the (general) failure to pay for road maintenance, the tax subsidies... it all adds up. Warranted or not, EV drivers should not be surprised if resentment grows.

I drive a 2012 Leaf in CA. In 2018 my registration fees increased $55 for road maintenance fees otherwise collected at the pump for non-EVs. Assuming most people drive 15,000 miles a year, compared to a 30mpg ICE, that would be approximately 10 cents per gallon surcharge. Since I’m retired and only drive a third of that, I think I’m due a refund. (I’m joking).

So CA has corrected the road maintenance fee inequality issue. Other states may impose similar fees too. No need for anyone to resent us.

15,000/30mpg = 500 gallons of gas. $55/500= 11 cents/gallon equivalent tax

 

[Lakewood90712]

California state + federal gasoline tax is just over $ .65 per gallon + a reduced rate of sales tax of 2.25%. Add the equivalent to the Kilowatts used by electric vehicles and those will turn to

 

[ERD50]

California state + federal gasoline tax is just over $ .65 per gallon + a reduced rate of sales tax of 2.25%. Add the equivalent to the Kilowatts used by electric vehicles and those will turn to

Putting some math to that, assume a 30 mpg car, so $0.65 in tax to go that 30 miles on one gallon.

An EV ~ 3 miles/kWh, so 10 kWh to go that same 30 miles. So the $0.65 in tax divided by the 10 kWh is an added 6.5 cents per kWh to bring the EV to an equivalent tax charge per mile.

That's quite a boost over most kWh rates. For 10 cent kWh electric, that would bring it to ~ $1.65 to go 30 miles, not so very much cheaper than gasoline. And you can buy 40~50 mpg cars (hybrids) now, I don't think there are nay real high miles/kWh EVs, as the efficiencies are all up near theoretical max anyhow.

-ERD50

 

[samclem]

That's quite a boost over most kWh rates. For 10 cent kWh electric, that would bring it to ~ $1.65 to go 30 miles, not so very much cheaper than gasoline. And you can buy 40~50 mpg cars (hybrids) now, I don't think there are nay real high miles/kWh EVs, as the efficiencies are all up near theoretical max anyhow.

-ERD50

The national average gasoline price is $2.69/gal (inclusive of taxes), so even if we assumed a 40 MPG car, that works out to 6.7 cents per mile. The US average fuel tax (federal plus state) is about 52 cents/gal, so without the taxes, the 40 MPG car would burn 5.4 cents per mile.

The electric car in your example works out to 1.65/30 = 5.5 cents per mile--if it were paying the road tax. Still cheaper than the gasoline car (in this example) but not by very much (1.2 cents per mile, or $120 per year for someone who drives 10K miles). The much discussed "fuel cost savings" from going electric is primarily a tax savings. That's the tax used to pay for road maintenance and improvements as well as public transit projects, etc.

When tax policy catches up with this (and it appears to be coming), it could impact the desirability of electric cars, at least a little.

 

[eroscott]

Getting back to Tesla--when the taxman gets around to straightening this out, it may impact the desirability of electric cars.

It is funny how these comments only look as far as the USA with are artificially low gas prices compared to almost every other country. Tesla and other EV producing companies sell cars in various countries. In Tesla's case they are now building a more appealing sized car for several other countries -- Model 3 ... ann in the not to distant future the Model Y CUV. GF3 will be an enormous hit as an example. Various post above are proving that out.

Also electricity is really the only 'fuel' getting cleaner and cheaper every year. Example from yesterday: https://grist.org/article/batteries-are-key-to-clean-energy-and-they-just-got-much-cheaper/

 

[Ready]

I'm confused. Did California already begin charging an EV registration fee? The articles I googled say they don't go into effect until 2020.

I just pulled up my purchase agreement and it shows I paid a Registration/Transfer/Titling Fees of $247.00 and a License Fee of $288.00.

Do these fees include the EV fee or is there another fee coming due?

 

[samclem]

It is funny how these comments only look as far as the USA with are artificially low gas prices compared to almost every other country.

Well, let's look at the whole picture then. US electricity is also "artificially" (?) low. The US average residential rate in 2018 was 13 cents per KWH. Germans paid 33 cents. That's about 2.5 times as much. As their gasoline is "only" 2.3 times the US price (per your chart), any fuel cost advantage a Tesla enjoys in the US is >smaller< in Germany than it is here. Electricity costs in the rest of the EU are about double those in the US, so this will drive up the cost of "filling up" an EV relative to the US. To an even larger degree than the US, the prices at the gas/diesel pump in Europe reflect the inclusion of taxes rather than the underlying cost of the petroleum. We'll see if officials in these other countries move to recapture lost revenue if EVs become a larger portion of the traffic on their roads. Any moves like this will push per-mile driving costs closer to parity between EVs and IC vehicles.

 

[Lakewood90712]

It is funny how these comments only look as far as the USA with are artificially low gas prices compared to almost every other country. Tesla and other EV producing companies sell cars in various countries. In Tesla's case they are now building a more appealing sized car for several other countries -- Model 3 ... ann in the not to distant future the Model Y CUV. GF3 will be an enormous hit as an example. Various post above are proving that out.

Also electricity is really the only 'fuel' getting cleaner and cheaper every year. Example from yesterday: https://grist.org/article/batteries-are-key-to-clean-energy-and-they-just-got-much-cheaper/

US gas prices artificially low ? Try gas prices artificially high in other nations.

US gas prices in most states.
: cost of crude oil, refining, road taxes , profit, and in places like California where I live, bogus low carbon fuel fees ( subsidies to electric vehicle programs)

Except for souvren petroleum refiners in the middle east, everyone else pays the same for crude and has approximately the same refining practices.

How are US prices artificially low ?