After running our numbers on a couple of sites, we're starting to get into % success rates that are looking pretty good. That said, FireCalc has definitely been the most optimistic.
I'm curious what % success rate people feel comfortable with, and what age you plan to, especially given the current market conditions. A 95% success rate in FIRECalc feels pretty good, but is it *really* 95% after an extended bull market, given SORR...
I know the answers to this Q will vary tremendously depending on risk tolerance, age, buffer, etc... but am curious to hear the responses.
FWIW, in FIRECalc, we're at 88% with most aggressive assumptions (no downsizing, live to mid-90s, high spend level with fair amount of extras), 95% assuming we cut our [padded] budget by about 5% and live to 90, and 100% if we add in a downsizing to that last scenario.
I'm having trouble pulling the trigger, I think mainly because I know how stressed I will be in a downturn. After watching our investments grow and adding money year after year, the thought of pulling money out is pretty stressful, especially given where the markets are right now.
I find myself wanting to hit that 100% success rate for our most aggressive assumptions, but filled with dread at the thought that the market may take a turn for the worse in the interim and leave us stuck w*rking through a recovery, just to get back to where we are now.
I'm curious what % success rate people feel comfortable with, and what age you plan to, especially given the current market conditions. A 95% success rate in FIRECalc feels pretty good, but is it *really* 95% after an extended bull market, given SORR...
I know the answers to this Q will vary tremendously depending on risk tolerance, age, buffer, etc... but am curious to hear the responses.
FWIW, in FIRECalc, we're at 88% with most aggressive assumptions (no downsizing, live to mid-90s, high spend level with fair amount of extras), 95% assuming we cut our [padded] budget by about 5% and live to 90, and 100% if we add in a downsizing to that last scenario.
I'm having trouble pulling the trigger, I think mainly because I know how stressed I will be in a downturn. After watching our investments grow and adding money year after year, the thought of pulling money out is pretty stressful, especially given where the markets are right now.
I find myself wanting to hit that 100% success rate for our most aggressive assumptions, but filled with dread at the thought that the market may take a turn for the worse in the interim and leave us stuck w*rking through a recovery, just to get back to where we are now.