Not sure if it’s called a bull trap or a bear trap, but I’m betting it’s a trap and that there will be second and third order repercussions many aren’t factoring in yet such as: massive bankruptcy of some household name mega corps, shockingly high headline unemployment rate, one or more state pension funds declaring functional insolvency, home loans becoming exceedingly hard to get, etc.
I think there are fundamentally two sets of prognosticators:
Group 1: those who feel the economy had been very good, and that the virus is essentially a temporary pause in economic activity.
Group 2 (which includes me): those who feel the economy had not been nearly as good as touted because it was essentially supported by unsustainable debt, and now the credit bubble has burst and the long term repercussions will play out regardless of how the virus recovery goes
No one can say right now which group is right, but I’m betting pretty big money it’s Group 2.