Your 2022 S&P Prediction

[Iggysmom]

4200. Think a correction is due.

 

[FIREarly]

1,000,000

 

[matjung]

I predict that during the year it drops below 4000.

By the end of 2022 it bounced back into 4100 to 4200.
Inflation will put pressure on that market.

 

[Spirit_Cheese]

Well, the average so far is 5047.59 (5.9% increase) and the median is 5147 (8.0%). I'll get another cup of coffee now...

 

[PatrickA5]

Well, the average so far is 5047.59 (5.9% increase) and the median is 5147 (8.0%). I'll get another cup of coffee now...

Did you factor in the 1,000,000 above? That should help things out.

 

[Spirit_Cheese]

Did you factor in the 1,000,000 above? That should help things out.

Of course I plugged it in just to see (407.4% increase). Oddly enough it didn't change the median at all

I did see what prediction I would have to make to match last year's return, but I doubt it'll go to 55,000.

 

[Magus]

4500

 

[Car-Guy]

5000

 

[Magus]

Figured I would reply with my reasoning like others have. Here's how I see the year playing out: Omicron peaks in mid-Jan, Fed completes taper in March, Fed raises interest rate to .25% in June, new COVID variant emerges in July / August, Fed doesn't raise interest rate in the fall, Fed raises interest rate to .5% in December. Gains will be strong in the market until the first rate hike in June, markets sells off after that and volatility rises with new variant and the mid-term election cycle. November and December are VERY strong months in the market to end the year. Unemployment falls to 3.5% by year end, GDP growth on the year is 4.5% and 10 year treasury ends the year at 2.25%.

Quite optimistic on real GDP growth. I'll guess 1-2%

I think we'll be lucky with 2-3% growth this year. I'm also betting inflation is > 5% in 2022, possibly 8%+. FR and USG actions usually take a year+ to really show up + combined with the never ended covid variant = very high inflation.

 

[Magus]

For those who are confident in their predictions, I would be interested to know what actions you are taking with your portfolio to take advantage of your result. This is in the spirit of Nassim Taleb, who says: "Don’t tell me what you think. Show me your portfolio."

For DW and me, the most reliable market prediction I have ever heard is attributed to JP Morgan: "It will fluctuate."

I'm not confident as the standard deviation on what can happen is - like the last two years- much higher than normal. I'm 48% RRE, 35% equities, 7% cash, 7% bonds, 3% gold/silver/digital currency. I am most confident on RRE since I think high inflation is > 75% chance this year.

 

[timbervest]

I believe the market will be higher 5 years from now.

 

[matjung]

I'm not confident as the standard deviation on what can happen is - like the last two years- much higher than normal. I'm 48% RRE, 35% equities, 7% cash, 7% bonds, 3% gold/silver/digital currency. I am most confident on RRE since I think high inflation is > 75% chance this year.

RRE as in Residential Real Estate?
Do you adjust rents based on inflation?

 

[sengsational]

I'm going with 6001 due to rampant inflation.

 

[sengsational]

User|Prediction
luckydude|

2860​

|
Alectoris|

3631​

|
Scratchy|

4000​

|
NW-Bound|

4000​

|
matjung|

4150​

|
Iggysmom|

4200​

|
RetireAge50|

4247​

|
Closet_Gamer|

4300​

|
jeroly|

4300​

|
gooddog|

4300​

|
GravitySucks|

4400​

|
Mr. Tightwad|

4500​

|
Magus|

4500​

|
Out-to-Lunch|

4512​

|
VanWinkle|

4675​

|
aja8888|

4900​

|
braumeister|

4900​

|
Chuckanut|

4932​

|
Bigdawg|

4933​

|
BatcherNCarolina|

4991​

|
donheff|

5000​

|
Car-Guy|

5000​

|
Golden sunsets|

5004​

|
karen1972|

5050​

|
corn18|

5050​

|
Out of Steam|

5084​

|
Dtail|

5100​

|
Kork13|

5100​

|
PatrickA5|

5101​

|
Gumby|

5123​

|
mrfeh|

5147​

|
Surfs_Up|

5150​

|
Helen|

5150​

|
clifp|

5151​

|
Live Free|

5176​

|
MichaelKnight|

5180​

|
teejayevans|

5191​

|
Born2Fish|

5200​

|
SoHan|

5243​

|
ducky911|

5280​

|
SecondCor521|

5281​

|
swaneesr|

5290​

|
38Chevy454|

5300​

|
tulak|

5335​

|
Taxman59|

5338​

|
aaronc879|

5400​

|
DektolMan|

5433​

|
jollystomper|

5447​

|
freedomatlast|

5480​

|
CRLLS|

5481​

|
mistermike40|

5500​

|
CincyDave|

5569​

|
ATXFIRE2034|

5576​

|
Tom52|

5675​

|
kgtest|

5720​

|
Fermion|

6000​

|
F.I.R.E User|

6000​

|
sengsational|

6001​

|

 

[Doingitwrong]

I predict the end. Again.
One of these times I’ll be right.

 

[Doingitwrong]

I'm going with 6001 due to rampant inflation.

6002.
Because I remember The Price Is Right.

 

[sengsational]

6002.
Because I remember The Price Is Right.

 

[Magus]

RRE as in Residential Real Estate?
Do you adjust rents based on inflation?

Based on what I can get in the market for a B+ or better tenant. For existing tenants, it just depends.

 

[Maximus]

5298

 

[matjung]

For those who are confident in their predictions, I would be interested to know what actions you are taking with your portfolio to take advantage of your result. This is in the spirit of Nassim Taleb, who says: "Don’t tell me what you think. Show me your portfolio."

For DW and me, the most reliable market prediction I have ever heard is attributed to JP Morgan: "It will fluctuate."

For me it has no real impact. Markets are going up and down.
I will allocate more time into portfolio insurance.

 

[Lvus101]

I predict 5576 for 2022.

I think we all need to recalculate

 

[F.I.R.E User]

Pretty soon this war news will get old and market will ignore that. 6,000 by 1/31/22.

 

[Helen]

4200. Think a correction is due.

Whoa, we closed at 4201 today.

 

[kgtest]

If it's lower than it is today by end of the year, I owe everyone in this thread a drink!

 

[yakers]

If it’s lower at the end of the year I’ll need ?