S&P 500 Prediction 2023?

[Love This Community]

S&P 500 Prediction 2023?

I don't know, it is easy to get at least a guess a week through the 1st quarter.

I vote for 1/10/2023 11:59PM Pacific time as the prediction deadline.

I am working very hard on building my analytical models and fixing my broken crystal ball at the same time. This deadline is adding too much pressure. I need to shift things into high gear now.

 

[38Chevy454]

I am working very hard on building my analytical models and fixing my broken crystal ball at the same time. This deadline is adding too much pressure. I need to shift things into high gear now.

Mine is more like a random number generator

 

[Rickt]

4550

 

[SloHan]

I don't know, it is easy to get at least a guess a week through the 1st quarter.

I vote for 1/10/2023 11:59PM Pacific time as the prediction deadline.

I hear the word deadline and now this fun thread sounds more like w@rk

 

[mebden]

I say 4500

 

[Jerry1]

I don't know, it is easy to get at least a guess a week through the 1st quarter.

I vote for 1/10/2023 11:59PM Pacific time as the prediction deadline.

I hear the word deadline and now this fun thread sounds more like w@rk

Maybe after the 10th we should require a PowerPoint presentation if anyone wants to make a prediction.

 

[GravitySucks]

I am working very hard on building my analytical models and fixing my broken crystal ball at the same time. This deadline is adding too much pressure. I need to shift things into high gear now.

Sticking with chicken entrails. My most reliable leading economic indicator.

 

[N02L84ER]

4005

 

[gooddog]

3600

 

[kgtest]

4750. They say the bear market recovers within a year or two. Hopefully this will be the year and I am correct. It could go the complete other direction as well though, with mass layoffs which already seem to be happening, tightening of credit, foreclosures and bankruptcies.

No prize for getting it right so I am going high!

FWIW I tried to ask ChatGPT OpenAI and got this response:

AI: "I'm sorry, but I am not able to provide you with predictions about the future movements of the stock market. There are many factors that can affect the performance of the stock market, and it is difficult to accurately predict its movements. It is always important to do your own research and invest wisely."

 

[jollystomper]

To pass the time during commercials and halftime of the Seahawks-49ers game, I summarized all of the guesses in this thread. Rather than put out one huge table, I have segmented the guesses into Divisions.

Each division is named after a U2 single whose title I feel best describes the sentiment of the guesses in that division. If there is a mistake in your screen name or guess, let me know, this was typed while watching football. If you object to a division name, hey, this is just mindless fun - feel free to repost with your own segmentation/division names based on whatever you want.


Sunday Bloody Sunday Division (9 guesses)

Name|guess|percent change
ShokWaveRider|2000|-47.9%
bmurphy|2100|-45.3%
pb4uski|3000|-21.9%
FLSUnFIRE|3072|-20.0%
freedom2022|3200|-16.7%
DFW_M5|3305|-13.9%
11522914|3338|-13.1%
Hank|3369|-12.3%
Freedom56|3420|-10.9%

Numb Division (11 guesses)

Name|guess|percent change
mmurphy|3500|-8.8%
Beststash|3506|-8.7%
Mr. Tightwad|3516|-8.4%
Pointby2|3525|-8.2%
24601NoMore|3600|-6.2%
gooddog|3600|-6.2%
GenXguy|3620|-5.7%
Born2Fish|3650.22|-4.9%
almost there|3721|-3.1%
Rowej|3780|-1.5%
Rocky mtn high|3800|-1.0%

Desire Division (14 guesses)

Name|guess|percent change
38Chevy454|3975|3.5%
Lakedog|3993|4.0%
yhoomajor|4001.28|4.2%
N02L84ER|4005|4.3%
rrs26ja|4015|4.6%
GravitySucks|4032|5.0%
aaronc879|4033|5.0%
PatrickA5|4034|5.1%
Taco|4042|5.3%
NW_Bound|4100|6.8%
dmpi|4110|7.0%
Reese|4122|7.4%
Al18|4133|7.6%
Markola|4143|7.9%

Beautiful Day Division (22 guesses)

Name|guess|percent change
jollystomper|4223|10.0%
SecondCor521|4223.45|10.0%
audreyh1|4250|10.7%
Dreamer|4269|11.2%
MichealKnight|4270|11.2%
Foghorn Leghorn|4275|11.3%
Toast|4315|12.4%
Sjhawkins|4321|12.5%
latexman|4327.55|12.7%
Go-NoGo|4376|14.0%
tulak|4400|14.6%
SloHan|4415|15.0%
ducky911|4419|15.1%
Dash man|4430|15.4%
finnski1|4444|15.7%
Car-Guy|4500|17.2%
mebden|4500|17.2%
Out-to-Lunch|4512|17.5%
teejayevans|4545|18.4%
Closet_Gamer|4550|18.5%
Rickt|4550|18.5%
braumeister|4560|18.8%

Even Better Than The Real Thing Division (6 guesses)

Name|guess|percent change
kgtest|4750|23.7%
Jerry1|4796|24.9%
Ronbusa3|4799|25.0%
Gumby|5123|33.4%
retire2020|5325|38.7%
sengsational|6001|56.3%

 

[audreyh1]

Excellent. Well done!

Rocky mtn high should have been the one guessing 6001 instead of sengsational ha ha.

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

Love it!

 

[Jerry1]

Besides saying thank you for the great summary, all I can say is that I hope my division wins even if it’s not me.

 

[Toast]

This is awesome! Thanks for organizing our predictions.

 

[Gumby]

Besides saying thank you for the great summary, all I can say is that I hope my division wins even if it’s not me.

Switching bands, I say "We are the Champions".

 

[eytonxav]

I still see a recession coming despite the feelings of a soft landing. Corporate profits drive the market and companies are laying off to keep profits up, and I suspect the fed will continue with its rate increases next month and beyond and inflation will still be high for many more months. All we need is another unexpected calamity and all hell with break loose. If we could adopt a rationale energy policy and the war in Ukraine ended, I would feel more optimistic.

 

[jollystomper]

1st Quarter Update

I know we did not do quarterly predictions, but its still interesting to see how things are at this stage .

The S&P 500 finished the quarter in the "Desire" prediction division.

dmpi's prediction is just .69 over the 1st quarter finish. Perhaps dmpi is hoping for a flat rest of the year .

 

[Markola]

I guessed 4143 in post #22, and the current value is 4109. Others guesses are even more on track. One quarter down and three to go!

 

[dmpi]

I know we did not do quarterly predictions, but its still interesting to see how things are at this stage .

The S&P 500 finished the quarter in the "Desire" prediction division.

dmpi's prediction is just .69 over the 1st quarter finish. Perhaps dmpi is hoping for a flat rest of the year .

I want the market to keep moving up to make up for last year . If we can get through the budget mess this summer I think we have a chance.

 

[Markola]

S&P 500 Prediction 2023?

^^^^ I plan to ignore that, because it’s all been scripted and rehearsed so many times now that it’s boring and I think the markets largely price in this shopworn high school play at this point. The politicians and corporate media will torture us for angertainment purposes, then reach a last-minute, high-minded-sounding deal designed not to come together to fix any problem but to kick the debacle down the road. There will be some market turbulence in the process, which donors will pester the politicians about, then a return to normal. Then, depending on whether and how the musical chairs inevitably change in DC, which is what determines everyone’s situational “fiscal principles”, they’ll do it all again, and again, and again.

 

[jollystomper]

2nd Quarter update

For the 2nd quarter, the S&P 500 advanced to the Beautiful Day division at 4450.38.


finnski1 (4444) currently has the closest prediction.



It's a beautiful day, we hope it doesn't slip away...

 

[kcowan]

In our Canadian Forecast contest, 31 are below and 10 above the current value.

 

[audreyh1]

For the 2nd quarter, the S&P 500 advanced to the Beautiful Day division at 4450.38.


finnski1 (4444) currently has the closest prediction.



It's a beautiful day, we hope it doesn't slip away...

Half Time, eh?

 

[Markola]

I’m happily wrong about post #94 but right about #96, not that it was very debatable.