2022 Investment Performance Thread

[VanWinkle]

I want to start out that I'm not picking on you two but have just noticed a trend that is perplexing. For many posters, their disclosed 2022 returns are a lot better than the 2022 returns under Portfolio Visualizer for a portfolio with the same AA.

For example, a 50/40/10 AA consistent with MidPack's sig line returned -14.85% according to PV, but MidPack bettered it with -12.8% Similiarly, sengsational's reported return for 2022 was -14.3% but a 67/33 AA was -17.43% according to PV.

For the benchmark I used VTSAX (Total Stock Admiral) for equities, VBTLX (Total Bond Admiral) for bonds and CASHX for cash... PV's 2022 returns of -19.53% for VTSAX and -13.16% for VBTLX agreed with the 2022 return for those tickers on the Vanguard website and the CASHX return for 2022 was 1.82%, which seemed reasonable.

So the DQOTD is why are forum members reported returns so much better than the return for a similar AA on Portfolio Visualizer? Superior stock picking? Less interest rate sensitivity that VBTLX due to more IBonds and credit union CDs? Overall shorter duration for bonds and brokered CDs than VBTLX? Other reasons?

In the interest of full disclosure, my reported 2022 return of -4.17% was also significantly better than the -13% per PV for a similar AA... though while my AA drifted over the course of the year as I made some portfolio changes I think -13% is about right.

In my case I'm pretty sure that it is because I sold about 1/2 of my equities from the beginning of the year in January before the blood let too much. Also, 43% of my fixed income at the beginning of the year were preferred shares that I sold off in early February before things got too bloody. So I was cash heavy for a lot of the year.

Finally the fixed income that I didn't sell did a lot better than the -13.16% return for VBTLX in 2022 because it was mostly IBonds and credit union CDs that are not interest rate sensitive.

And yes, its a slow day so far.

Sounds like you were right once by reducing equities and selling off your preferred stocks before the carnage(tax consequences unknown). There will be another timing to get back in when the market turns and it is difficult to get both of these decisions right.
Good luck to you,

VW

 

[REWahoo]

In my case I'm pretty sure that it is because I sold about 1/2 of my equities from the beginning of the year in January before the blood let too much. Also, 43% of my fixed income at the beginning of the year were preferred shares that I sold off in early February before things got too bloody. So I was cash heavy for a lot of the year.

I also want to start out that I'm not picking on you but have just noticed this post might be a better fit in the [-]Market Timing[/-] Active Investing, Market Strategies & Alternative Assets forum.

And yes, it's a slow day so far.

 

[pb4uski]

Sounds like you were right once by reducing equities and selling off your preferred stocks before the carnage(tax consequences unknown). There will be another timing to get back in when the market turns and it is difficult to get both of these decisions right.
Good luck to you,

VW

I also want to start out that I'm not picking on you but have just noticed this post might be a better fit in the [-]Market Timing[/-] Active Investing, Market Strategies & Alternative Assets forum.

And yes, it's a slow day so far.

Fair points on market timing. It wasn't particularly intentional but it did work out. As VW points out, the real trick is when to get back in.

All in tax deferred and tax free so no tax cost or benefit at all.

 

[Dtail]

Fair points on market timing. It wasn't particularly intentional but it did work out. As VW points out, the real trick is when to get back in.

All in tax deferred and tax free so no tax cost or benefit at all.

For another reference point, I hold no bonds in my 56% fixed income allocation, so my Stable Value and CD's did much better than the generic bond fund.

 

[sengsational]

... Similiarly, sengsational's reported return for 2022 was -14.3% but a 67/33 AA was -17.43% according to PV.

I'm glad I did better than the basic US large cap / bond fund because lord knows I've often done worse than that AA.

My more detailed asset allocation is probably in the forum somewhere, but I'm too lazy to find it right now. But it's got developed and emerging international and a tilt on the US equities, so not just large cap (or total market which is very large capish anyway). One thing that probably helped is that a major good chunk of my bond allocation is in a 401K stable value fund, so I didn't take it on the chin at all compared to some bond fund holders. And I did sell the smaller bond portion of my AA that was in a bond fund, finally, and bought individual bonds, but I think that was probably too late to help much.

 

[Markola]

From Novelinvestor.com.

 

[Happyras]

Ok, the numbers are all in......-13.4% which I think ain't too bad.
I was heavy into large cap growth, and health care well into 2022. A few bonds and some preferred's. But thanks to my life long friend who taught me well, I moved almost all of my 70% equities into SPY and sold covered calls in the late spring. Not for everyone, but I had to put a lot of faith into what the FED has to do, and still must do. Lyn Alden helped reinforce a lot of my own belief.

If I had simply let it roll, I would likely have been down closer to -30% with the allocation I had. My HSA account indicates this, as I did not protect that one account with this strategy.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Yes, Tellico Village just southwest of Knoxville.

Tellico is on my list of possible destinations. Please let us know as you go on how things are!

 

[VanWinkle]

Tellico is on my list of possible destinations. Please let us know as you go on how things are!

Will do!!

 

[RobLJ]

-12.8% with a 57-23-20 portfolio (now, not sure what it was Jan 1 2022).


I thought it was gong to be considerably worse but I had to type in all dividends/capital gains in Quicken for 2 accounts, one of them my biggest account, since the Quicken download no longer works for those accounts (it does update fund values, just not dividends/gains/etc). It made a big difference.
"Just a flesh wound!" -- Black Knight

 

[almost there]

2023 will be just under 4%. Around 3.80.

 

[target2019]

2023 will be just under 4%. Around 3.80.

For 2023, is this interest rate? S&P500 return? Or something else?

 

[audreyh1]

2023 will be just under 4%. Around 3.80.

For 2023, is this interest rate? S&P500 return? Or something else?

Wrong thread perhaps? Sounds like planned withdrawal rate.

 

[RetiredAt49]

2022 Year End Performance

AA = 100% equities
Return = Down about 28%

I fired my wealth management company in June 2021. They had me in about 80 individual stocks and I've shifted a majority of my portfolio to low cost index funds.

 

[steelyman]

With today’s inflation report from BLS, it appears that the 2022 real return from my retirement portfolio was -28.31%.

Quoting a long-running late night talk show gag: “This is only an exhibition, not a competition.”

 

[almost there]

For 2023, is this interest rate? S&P500 return? Or something else?

My actual return on CD's. LOL LOL

 

[audreyh1]

My actual return on CD's. LOL LOL

Thanks much for clarifying! You are one of the few who know their return in advance!

 

[JOBO]

. For many posters, their disclosed 2022 returns are a lot better than the 2022 returns under Portfolio Visualizer for a portfolio with the same AA.

My 58/24/18 ended 2022 down 8.9% on a time-weighted basis

According to PV, 2022 has a ~7% delta between equal and cap-weighted S&P 500 funds:
RSP -11.6%
SPY -18.1%
Highlighting that even when in "the same investment" AA and index type can make a huge difference.

 

[Still Learning]

Started 2022 at 60/40 with larger cash savings (equal to investment portfolio) with final result of -14.7% and gain to $25K additional to savings with 0.7% withdrawal rate.



Spent October thru December investigating Vanguard/Fidelity/Schwab/regional & national banks/local Financial Planners to determine if I wanted to vacate the investment management seat. Decided to continue self management and continue use of our consultant for simple retirement tax preparation and financial planning. We always meet post tax preparation and anytime during the year to obtain his independent thoughts on proposed changes to our investment strategy and understand future tax implications for our short and long term goals.


In December 1) most stock/bond funds had been changed to Federal Money Market Fund that is currently seeing 4.28% 7 day SEC return 2) Put $400K from savings into new non-retirement accounts to erase 2023 loss and increase investment portfolio 3) purchased $350K of short term CDs with savings cash which should provide +4% return after taxes. In January we kept our 2 best performing investment funds and added 2 new large cap value funds which we can hopefully fund to a higher level this year. Finally we raised our withdrawal rate to 1.75% on a larger investment portfolio which increases or income flow 4X and still allows the portfolio to grow. We have no current need for the additional cash so it will simply go into savings for future use.

 

[pb4uski]

My 58/24/18 ended 2022 down 8.9% on a time-weighted basis

According to PV, 2022 has a ~7% delta between equal and cap-weighted S&P 500 funds:
RSP -11.6%
SPY -18.1%
Highlighting that even when in "the same investment" AA and index type can make a huge difference.

Probably true, but indices are cap-weighted so an equal weighted index isn't relevant. When someone says 60/40 it's 60 total stock and 40 total bond.

 

[madman]

Ended 2022 at -6.23%. 93% stocks, 7% bonds. Got lucky where my company stock did well to offset S&P 500 index fund losses. Lost more on my bonds in 2022 than my stocks which I was not expecting.

 

[target2019]

My actual return on CD's. LOL LOL

Ha, you get extra points, literally.

 

[VFK57]

Ha, you get extra points, literally.

It is all depends on what is ahead of us. I think that we are heading into recession or already in it (based on many major High Tech companies are massively laid workforce like Tesla, Twitter, Google, Meta etc.) and Feds keep fighting inflation raising rates and slowing economy by doing so. The question is how long the recession is going to last as the world is in a major Geopolitical change and it is not possible to predict economic and financial future. Future of Humanity is also at stake. Russian Dictator threats should not be taken easily. So as usually LOL will be the one, who is going to save their nest egg and in my opinion it will not be easy with 80%-100% equities.

 

[street]

It is all depends on what is ahead of us. I think that we are heading into recession or already in it (based on many major High Tech companies are massively laid workforce like Tesla, Twitter, Google, Meta etc.) and Feds keep fighting inflation raising rates and slowing economy by doing so. The question is how long the recession is going to last as the world is in a major Geopolitical change and it is not possible to predict economic and financial future. Future of Humanity is also at stake. Russian Dictator threats should not be taken easily. So as usually LOL will be the one, who is going to save their nest egg and in my opinion it will not be easy with 80%-100% equities.

Can you define "SAVE" in your view from above opinion?

Thanks

 

[brokrken]

-20.46% at roughly 90/10