Record Dow! Whee!

[retire@40]

I held off all year at putting some money in a SEP-IRA. I finally did it today.

 

[ERD50]

The ERF sentiment indicator is bullish: 48% bulls vs 39% bears.

Unless you are a contrarian.

How accurate has the ERF been in predicting market swings?

-ERD50

 

[twaddle]

Unless you are a contrarian.

How accurate has the ERF been in predicting market swings?

We won't know for another 6 months.

Interestingly, it's giving a different signal than the put/call ratio, which recently went pretty high (which is considered bearish sentiment, and a bullish contrarian indicator).

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

I just watch you guys and go the other way

 

[Donzo]

I hope that I havent jinxed the market - I did some buying and rebalencing today. It takes the sting out of the loss this week because of the possible upside. I will be much better off when the market gets to 14,000 again.... If the market continues to slide I am going into "don't look mode".
I don't have to sell any stocks or M funds for at least 7 years - so that is comforting. Yes I am going to have fun this weekend - you gotta keep a sense of humor/adventure and enjoy the ride!
No matter - this is way better than work -- I will make this retirement continue by hook or crook! Well maybe not crook - I am to fragile to go to prison :>)

 

[ziggy29]

My mom has a Vanguard IRA that is almost entirely in money markets; when my dad was diagnosed as terminal a little more than two years ago he moved everything to cash from mostly stocks because she knows next to nothing about investing. I've recently taken POA on her investment accounts; she's 72 and reasonably healthy.

As the market falls, I take a chunk of it and put it into Wellesley and/or Wellington. I put another 10% of her portfolio into them today. She still has 70% in money market funds, but as I feel for good entry points and as money market yields fall in a panic, I get a little more invested. None of this is money she needs to live on, so it's worth getting some of it invested. My ultimate target is to get about 40-50% in stocks, but I don't want to go "all in" in this market.

 

[megacorp-firee]

If nothing else, the degrading market is doing one thing for me: it's helping me "beat the market" because of my holdings in bonds, cash and gold stocks. Of course, I'm still falling quite a bit, but not as much as Mister Market is overall...

As little as two weeks ago, my portfolio was losing to the S&P 500 by 2.5% (I've beaten it every year since 2001). Now I'm only trailing it by 0.48%.

If this keeps up, my streak may remain intact at the end of the year. Plus, I'm looking to put my mom's IRA back into the market and I'm seeing better and better entry points for DCAing some of it back in. I'm trying to see this half full Even if I did have to push my FIRE clock back one minute.

WOW ... now that is really bending over backwards to see the bright side.
...best of luck to you ziggy. Sound like you may be a bit on the conservative side on your investments ... it may be time to look at tweaking the AA. ... just my 2 cents ... and worth every penny of it.

 

[ziggy29]

WOW ... now that is really bending over backwards to see the bright side.
...best of luck to you ziggy. Sound like you may be a bit on the conservative side on your investments ... it may be time to look at tweaking the AA. ... just my 2 cents ... and worth every penny of it.

Well, the thing is, I did very well with my investments for many years -- as I said, my allocation has beaten the S&P every year since 2001 (heck, I was only down 5% in 2002), and my returns mostly kicked butt through most of the 1990s -- so I've started making my allocation slightly more conservative. I'd rather minimize my chance of a crash derailing my plans and goals than try to maximize my portfolio at the cost of a higher chance of meltdown. I'm 42 and I have about 25% in bonds and 8% in cash, which might be a tad on the conservative side for my age...but I also sleep better through periods like this one. I did well enough earlier that I don't need to put my capital at quite as much risk to still meet my long-term goals.

Still, it's going to be rebalance time in about a month. I need to sell a few thousand here, buy a few thousand there. Oh, and for what it's worth, at the end of today I was only trailing the S&P by 0.14%. I'm catching up! One more market bad hair day and the streak may live on! Wheeeee!

 

[haha]

For reasons that I can't really figure out, I am down only a little over 1% on the week.

I think we have entered a two tier market since August- Cramer's 4 Horsemen have been going to the moon. Even that tired old nag Henry Blodgett has been recycled to make outrageous "price targets" on GOOG, AAPL and RIMM. Doesn't anyone remeber what happened to his picks last time around?

Meanwhile back at the ranch, some very high quality stocks are on sale. I don't mean black-box banks. They may also be on sale but how would we know?

Look at Pfizer. Sure they have problems. Lipitor. the pharmaceutical commercial success of the century, faces strong generic competition from Zocor, and it will soon enough go off patent itself. But drug stocks ride a see-saw, one will be down for a while, then up for a while. Rarely does one go away, or stay down too long. Pfizer has doubled its dividend in the past 5 years-that's almost a CAGR of 15%-and it now yields more than a money market fund or a 10 year treasury. It is possible that the rate of increase will slow, or that they will even go a year or two without an increase, but it is highly unlikely that they would have to decrease the dividend. IMO, a great retirement stock on sale today.

There are many others, some more asset or price plays rather than yield.

Buy a put on GOOG, and buy outright some of these big strong stocks that have hit temporary rough times.

Ha

 

[OAG]

Don't sweat the market. Laddered CD's are still paying 5.725% (about 1/2 of 1% gain EVERY month). Two COLA'd Annuities (SS and Military Retired Pay) and all is well. I am concerned about the falling dollar but, like gas prices, I cannot do much about it.

 

[Spanky]

Look at Pfizer. Sure they have problems. Lipitor. the pharmaceutical commercial success of the century, faces strong generic competition from Zocor ...

Our health plan does not cover Lipitor anymore since Zocor is cheaper.

 

[ziggy29]

Our health plan does not cover Lipitor anymore since Zocor is cheaper. [/COLOR]

Just curious: does it not cover Lipitor at all, or is it a "step therapy" medication (one which is only covered if a cheaper alternative fails)?

I am being thrown into a new health HDHP/HSA plan with a new administrator with different rules, and the new plan has "step therapy" like this so I'm trying to figure out how it all works.

 

[Dawg52]

Our health plan does not cover Lipitor anymore since Zocor is cheaper.
[/color]

An even cheaper alternative is the generic form of Mevacor at Walmart for $4/mo. Don't need health insurance for this price. Your doc may say it's not potent enough for your needs however.

 

[Razor]

An even cheaper alternative is the generic form of Mevacor at Walmart for $4/mo. Don't need health insurance for this price. Your doc may say it's not potent enough for your needs however.

An even cheaper alternative than that is diet and exersise. Regular exercise and dietary modification can greatly improve your cholesterol profile and prevent the development of heart disease. We have become a country too dependant on drugs.

 

[ziggy29]

An even cheaper alternative than that is diet and exersise. Regular exercise and dietary modification can greatly improve your cholesterol profile and prevent the development of heart disease. We have become a country too dependant on drugs.

Well, yeah, for sure I would think "lifestyle changes" should be the first line of defense to lower cholesterol and blood pressure. But that's not always enough, and THEN it may be appropriate to medicate. I wouldn't necessarily be judgmental about all who are on these meds, though. Some people just have the wrong genes no matter what they do.

A lot of couch potatoes out there seem to be wishing that a little pill will cure all their problems. A pill won't convert fat to muscle.

 

[Razor]

We are a culture that believes drugs and doctors will cure all that ails us. Health care costs are too high because of our lifestyles. We eat like pigs, don't exercise, smoke and drink to excess, drive recklessly, and lack common sense to avoid preventable accidents which is 99% of them. If people would take responsibily for their own health instead of relying on modern medicine to fix the problems they bring upon themselves healthcare costs would plummet. Most people could live long and heathy lives without any drugs if they just made some lifestyle changes.

 

[Robert the Red]

If people would take responsibily for their own heath instead of relying on modern medicine to fix the problems they bring upon themselves healthcare costs would plummet. Most people could live long and heathy lives without any drugs if they just made some lifestyle changes.

My wife swims 2 hours a night 4 nights a week. She weighs what she did 30 years ago (not fat at all). We eat a very low fat & low salt diet. And she still has high cholesterol and high blood pressure.

sheesh.

 

[Razor]

My wife swims 2 hours a night 4 nights a week. She weighs what she did 30 years ago (not fat at all). We eat a very low fat & low salt diet. And she still has high cholesterol and high blood pressure.

sheesh.

Like I said, most people. There are exceptions of course. Most high cholesterol and high blood pressure are caused by diet, lack of exercise and unhealthy life choices. Just look around you at how fat people are now adays.

 

[haha]

We are a culture that believes drugs and doctors will cure all that ails us. Health care costs are too high because of our lifestyles. We eat like pigs, don't exercise, smoke and drink to excess,

Ok folks, let's give it up for our dear friend, The Reverend Cotton Mather!

Ha

 

[Razor]

Ok folks, let's give it up for our dear friend, The Reverend Cotton Mather!

Ha

I guess some people can't handle the truth.
America, 100 Percent Fat - Page 1 - Obesity in America - MSN Health & Fitness

The number of obese adults has doubled in just 20 years, with 67 percent of the adult population overweight or obese, according to recent figures from the Centers for Disease Control.
And things appear to be getting worse. Back in 1995, when researchers started to notice the changing landscape, one doctor sounded an alarm in The Lancet, a British medical journal. After studying the rise in obesity that had occurred over the 30-year period between 1960 and 1991, Dr. John Foreyt at the Baylor College of Medicine in Houston predicted that 100 percent of Americans would be overweight by the year 2230.
Upon seeing more recent data, Foreyt bumped up his projection by almost two centuries: “We’re gaining by 1 percentage point every year. Assuming that trend continues, 100 percent of the population will be overweight or obese by 2040.”

 

[toofrugalformycat]

Robert the Red wrote: "My wife swims 2 hours a night 4 nights a week. She weighs what she did 30 years ago (not fat at all). We eat a very low fat & low salt diet. And she still has high cholesterol and high blood pressure."

Sorry this is off topic from this thread, but as someone who can strongly relate to your wife, when I switched from being a teetotaler to having 1/2 glass of wine each night with dinner, my cholesterol ratio improved dramatically. Doctors don't recommend this because of the danger of undiscovered alcoholics starting to drink and not being able to stop. Becoming an alcoholic is much worse for a woman than having high cholesterol.

 

[audreyh1]

My wife swims 2 hours a night 4 nights a week. She weighs what she did 30 years ago (not fat at all). We eat a very low fat & low salt diet. And she still has high cholesterol and high blood pressure.

sheesh.

1. It's not high TOTAL cholesterol that is bad, but the ratios of good and bad. Given your wife's admirable exercise levels, her good cholesterol levels would be high. This might give a high total, but great ratios. Hopefully your doctor is looking at the details instead of the total.

2. A low fat diet will not necessarily improve cholesterol levels, sometimes it can make them worse if the diet is high in refined carbohydrates at the expense of good fats. You have to eat the RIGHT kind of fats to improve good cholesterol - fats high in omega 3s, nuts, etc. And a diet high in soluble fiber helps too.

3. Blood pressure - low salt helps, but high veggies/fruit is very important.

Perhaps you know all these things already.

Audrey

 

[flipstress]

I guess some people can't handle the truth.
America, 100 Percent Fat - Page 1 - Obesity in America - MSN Health & Fitness

The number of obese adults has doubled in just 20 years, with 67 percent of the adult population overweight or obese, according to recent figures from the Centers for Disease Control.
And things appear to be getting worse. Back in 1995, when researchers started to notice the changing landscape, one doctor sounded an alarm in The Lancet, a British medical journal. After studying the rise in obesity that had occurred over the 30-year period between 1960 and 1991, Dr. John Foreyt at the Baylor College of Medicine in Houston predicted that 100 percent of Americans would be overweight by the year 2230.
Upon seeing more recent data, Foreyt bumped up his projection by almost two centuries: “We’re gaining by 1 percentage point every year. Assuming that trend continues, 100 percent of the population will be overweight or obese by 2040.”

Maybe "peak oil" will break the obesity trend. When gasoline prices become really high, we'll be forced to walk, bike, and run to catch a bus or train so that might lessen obesity.

 

[cute fuzzy bunny]

I think we should lance all the chubby people, drain off the excess and break out those turn of the century whale oil lamps.

Heck, I could light the house for a couple of weeks, easy.

 

[flipstress]

More Of: Less Obesity in a Peak-Oil World

Yeah...just like folks gathering cooking oil from restaurants for biodiesel, we could collect all the liposuction fat bucket contents and use 'em.

<Sorry, I'm having a hard time working this Monday.>