Dow 8000?

Have the cover stories of Newsweek or Time said we are in a recession yet? I haven't checked.

If they have, it is time to buy stocks.
 
A reasonably good article in this week's Standard and Poor's The Outlook (available at your library or from your broker) describes 3 scenarios about the recession we are already in. They describe what they think is the most probable view, but then nicely describe a gloomier 20% downturn from here and a rosier 20% upturn from here. My synopsis of the article is that everything will hinge on oil prices.

I will note that Dow 8000 is not in any of the scenarios. :)
 
Whoopeee! Fear, Greed, Lust, Passion.

Football season is over - gonna buy a new pair of heavy gloves, beef up the checkbook and maybe try and catch some falling knives!

The snow hasn't melted and it's too early for a Spring kayak sale at Dick's Sporting goods in Kansas City.

heh heh heh - I wonder if I put my ear to the ground I hear my balanced index getting auto rebalanced at Vanguard. Probably too far away. :rolleyes: :D :cool:.

At DOW 7500 - back up the truck! Bet the farm?
 
No, the Dow is actually going negative, which will consume all matter and energy in the universe...

Let's see you diversify that away... :p
 
HFWR said:
No, the Dow is actually going negative, which will consume all matter and energy in the universe...

Let's see you diversify that away... :p
Click to expand...

I knew it! I just knew it! :2funny: We're doomed! Time to take everything out of the market and spend it all on seeds and survival gear. :rolleyes:
 
Time to buy the gold and the guns and the ammo and years of canned food, and pass the foil hats -- it's apocalypse time again!

The good thing is that the more people like this there are, the fewer sellers are left into the market. This has long been a pretty reliable contrarian indicator -- excessive apocalyptic doom and gloom has tended to be a sign that the bottom is near.
 
ziggy29 said:
Time to buy the gold and the guns and the ammo and years of canned food, and pass the foil hats -- it's apocalypse time again!

The good thing is that the more people like this there are, the fewer sellers are left into the market. This has long been a pretty reliable contrarian indicator -- excessive apocalyptic doom and gloom has tended to be a sign that the bottom is near.
Click to expand...

Oh thank goodness. I am ready for some good news, for a change! Bring on the market boom of 2008, and pass the champagne. :)
 
Want2retire said:
Oh thank goodness. I am ready for some good news, for a change! Bring on the market boom of 2008, and pass the champagne. :)
Click to expand...


While I'm generally a Bull, I think the market is at a point (to quote Rumsfeld) where we know the "known unknowns" but we don't yet know the "unknown unknowns" so anythings still possible ;).
 
I don't pay much attention to the DOW but my projection of the S&P 500 is between 1100 and 1150.
 
Wake me up....

When our 4-5 year cash position (I'm retired) is exhausted.

While I'm sure it means a lot (to a lot of people), in my/ DW's case it currently dosen't.

It's good to be old :cool: ...

- Ron
 
Dow 8000 wouldn't be all that bad -- In fact, for young folks such as myself, Dow 8000 sounds very attractive!
 
Absolutely amazing how not so bad (or even good) news can be spun so negatively by the media. The link in the article also shows unemployment rate of 4.8% which is very low by historical standards.
 
ziggy29 said:
Time to buy the gold and the guns and the ammo and years of canned food, and pass the foil hats -- it's apocalypse time again!
Click to expand...

Silly me, I just sold my gold and and pocketed the 140% profit I made on it... But maybe I'll use the money to buy canned food and ammo! ;)
 
Lakedog said:
Absolutely amazing how not so bad (or even good) news can be spun so negatively by the media. The link in the article also shows unemployment rate of 4.8% which is very low by historical standards.
Click to expand...

unemployment rate has been drifting down for decades, but stock prices go up on growth in the economy. 5.5% rate might seem low by historical standards but it will cause the economy to grow slower or even contract when you go up from 4.8%
 
Lakedog said:
Absolutely amazing how not so bad (or even good) news can be spun so negatively by the media. The link in the article also shows unemployment rate of 4.8% which is very low by historical standards.
Click to expand...

I think that was primarily due to 450,000 people who stopped looking for work during that time period. At least that is what I read.
 
While the rate, as measured, went down, many people simply 'stopped looking'.
Didn't the method of calculating the unemployment rate change not so long ago?
So while many fewer jobs are available, even fewr people are still looking for them.
 
that always cracks me up how people who stop looking means things are bad. maybe they have enough money to live on and just can't find a job that meets their exact standards.

all you FIRE people probably fall into this as well, shame on you for skewing the official numbers
 
What's interesting with the way the unemployment rate is calculated is the fact that with millions of baby boomers set to retire over the next decade, the economy could lose millions of jobs over that period of time and the unemployment rate could stay where it is today... Plus I don't like the way the government's unemployment rate is calculated because I think it is bound (or designed?) to underestimate the real number of unemployed people...
 
As Bush wisely said yesterday (quoting from a CNN Money article), "Economy has slowed."

Geez, really?? What foresight!

Seriously, though, this is the first time I'm glad we are getting a refund from the IRS. Having Uncle Sam hold my money means I wasn't buying depreciating stocks -- until now, of course.:duh:
 
I don't believe an 8000 DOW is out of the question. Had the FED not made emergency rate cuts we could be just about there by now.
I don't see any sector pulling the market up for awhile. The housing boom has turned to a bust, the tech market has leveled off and energy costs are on their way up. Oh and I forgot about the war we have to pay for.
Does anyone have an idea what will bolster the market and lead to prosperity for the next decade? Give me something to be optimistic about. Please.
 
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