Notmuchlonger
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
- Joined
- Dec 20, 2007
- Messages
- 4,764
Ah here is the little guy!
Believing that would actually make investing a lot easier, at least for myself. But I tend to believe that if our portfolio is dropping, someone else's is going up (or at least not dropping nearly as much). Wrong assumption?
Strange, but I see multi-million dollar homes selling (albeit at at 15% haircut from the peak), crowded restaurants, and long waits for admission to private schools and for golf club memberships. I see an economy that has slowed a bit, but has not receeded. Maybe it will, but maybe it won't.
If you want to talk politics, I don't see people being hauled off to gulags for regular torturing sessions, but I have noticed that we have not had a terrorist attack on our soil since 9/2001--even though most Americans polled after the attack said they fully expected us to me attacked again.
IMHO, things are not that bad.
Im better off now than I was 10 years ago. I almost feel dirty..
Filthy Merkin...
There ya go, Marquette.. that's the spirit! I'll join ya. What kind of stick do you prefer? I'm partial to oak.Then again, I'd be able to keep myself amused in a dirt field with a stick for days on end... your mileage may vary.
There ya go, Marquette.. that's the spirit! I'll join ya. What kind of stick do you prefer? I'm partial to oak.
Shhh.... Don't tell the tinfoil hat crowd that. They are having too much fun watching CNBC, drooling, and contemplating how much Merkins deserve economic doom for some sort of undefined shortcomings.
That is if this is a crisis
Nobody knows, maybe it isn't even in the pipeline yet. But the answer is that an opportunity will come along, next week, or next year or in the next decade.... and my biggest question that no one wants to answer: where are the future growth/earnings going to come from?
I don't know what people are reading but I see bankruptcies up, foreclosures up, unemployment up, jobs down, credit tightening and cash short everywhere.. and my biggest question that no one wants to answer: where are the future growth/earnings going to come from? The US economy is contracting and it's been like pulling teeth the last few months here to get any number of people to admit to even that.
From June 26 WSJhe U.S. economy grew slightly more in the first quarter than previously estimated, and home sales rose in May, but concerns are rising about potential threats to growth in coming months. "For the balance of this year, it looks like the economy is trapped in a subpar growth pace but not a recession," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist with RBS Greenwich Capital in Stamford, Conn.
The Commerce Department said the nation's gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of 1% during the first three months of the year, up from its previous estimate of 0.9%. The economy grew at an anemic 0.6% pace in the final quarter of last year. Stronger consumer spending and export growth helped boost growth in the first quarter; inflation rates also were revised higher.
The price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding energy and food -- a gauge of inflation watched closely by the Federal Reserve -- rose at a 2.3% pace, above the 1.5%-to-2% range that the Fed considers price stability.
Sales of previously owned houses, meanwhile, rose 2% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.99 million after declining in the previous two months, according to the National Association of Realtors. Still, the sales pace of existing homes, which make up about 85% of the market, is down about 16% from May 2007.
Sales of existing single-family homes rose 1.6% last month to a 4.4 million rate but are down about 15% from a year earlier. The monthly rise was likely fueled by declining prices; the median single-family home price last month was $206,700, 6.8% lower than in May 2007. Condominium and co-op sales also rose last month but remain 25% below the year-ago pace.
On GDP, analysts expect a similar performance for the April-through-June period, as government economic-stimulus checks provide some relief to consumers. Rising exports also continue to buoy growth.
1) Stocks and real estate are cheaper now than they were
2) Oil can't go up forever and may peak soon
3) Alternative energy may be on the horizon
4) Many markets are very oversold and due for a bounce
Perhaps because we have NOT seen data that shows that it is contracting. . Slowing, boarding on recession sure but actually there.. we will know in Aug. BTW, a lot of people claimed the US was in recession last summer.
From June 26 WSJ
WADR, how many of of the folks in the retirement community remember the depression. They'd have to be born before 1925, making them a minimum of 83. Even then, I'd want them to be 15 in 1930 making them 90+.
what if the fed raised short term interest rates ... and the dollar started going up ... and commodities started going down ... and US stocks started going up ... and foreigners started piling into US stocks because of the dollar going up and US stocks reversing trend ...
I want my birthday to be a national holiday.
History of continuous bi-partisan gov. statistics manipulation here:
Hard numbers: The economy is worse than you know - St. Petersburg Times
"Pollyanna Creep" is an apt phrase that originated with John Williams, a California-based economic analyst and statistician who "shadows," as he puts it, the official Washington numbers. In a 2006 interview, Williams noted that although few Americans ever see the fine print, the government "always footnotes the changes and provides all the fine detail. Nonetheless, some of the changes are nothing short of remarkable, and the pattern over time is what I call Pollyanna Creep."
I think the inflation numbers are bogus and I have for years. I don't think there's some grand conspiracy about them, but I can understand why some would think so given the government's obvious conflict of interest in being able to determine COLAs and interest paid on TIPS and I-bonds with their own numbers.well, if you take out that offending nomenclature.. what about the actual content describing the actual historical tactics undertaken re. statistics?? It's just as irrational to over-react in one direction as it is to over-react in the other, just based on terms that are provocative.