Recent content by Cool_Sparrow

Nest egg currently at 51x expenses (very little travel), but with a kid at home, ER not a possibility till Jr. reaches college (~5 years). Future ER travel may offset current kid expenses, so I expect the expenses to remain the same so the above multiple to remain unless of course, market...

That's not what I meant. If a non-financial event is going to mess up your retirement calculations (one of the outcomes can be positive from a financial sense in that you could drop dead much sooner than any actuarial model), then it doesn't matter that decades ago, you relied on 75%...

I agree. This is what William Bernstein also warns about relying too much portfolio success probabilities in Backtest based or Monte Carlo calculators. He specifically says planning beyond 80% success probability is futile as it only increases the probability of a non-financial event (like...

Given your situation, I would recommend that you have about 20-30% of your retirement assets invested in Turkey, especially rental real estate or home sites (land) in economically developing or developed parts of the country. Ideally, it should be multiple small sites, so that each can be...

I request other early retirees to share their views about the two approaches to 'stress test' the portfolio described above. Do you do something similar? I would appreciate any ideas in this regard. Sent from my GT-I9300 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app

No replies yet to my previous 2 posts?! :-( I request FIRECalc experts and ERed folks to please share your thoughts on the methodologies mentioned.

As a follow-up to my previous post, I found another instructive way to address the risk raised by molof. The biggest risk to retirement income survival that retirees face is early years' market performance. To simulate that, I re-ran FireCalc for 50-year period with the starting portfolio as...

Thanks all again for your inputs. I cannot help but wonder whether the aggregate of 2 lowest cycles is unrealistic. Taking the lowest of two 25-year cycles in sequence creates a sort of 'double worse' case scenario, does it not? In other words, the worst possible outcome of 25 years is taken...

First, thank you all for your perspectives. And, molof, a big thank you for that excellent insight. :bow: Of course, this stress test has given me a big pause. When I take the 'low' of the 35, 30 and 25 year periods and plug into the next part of the 50-year cycle, the 'low' figure from the...

Request to forum admin: Given that this thread is more about financial adequacy of my RE plan, should this thread be moved to 'Fire and Money' section to get more viewers and responses?

Thanks, REWahoo. Btw, I also used i-ORP, it gave similar results as FIRECalc. Don't know of any other calculators, if there is anything else recommended, please let me know. MBAustin, Papad...your views please? This is a major decision for me, need to be sure I did not miss anything...

REWahoo, MBAustin, papadad and others.... requesting your views please on my previous detailed post. Thanks.

Thanks to you all for your inputs. Gumby's summary is indeed excellent, so I thought to answer additional questions you have, I should reply to each point in his very useful list of things to think about. After you review the following, please let me know if you feel confident about my...

Thanks, pb4uski, for sharing your experience. Nearly 350 views and only 1 reply?!! I request all ER experts (REWahoo and several others) to opine on my plan please... Need confidence that I am on the right track here. Any pitfalls you see? Thanks.

Hi all :greetings10: This is a follow-up to my OP 5 years ago that the system no longer accepts replies on, so I started a new thread to update. It's almost 5 years since my last update. Things are looking up, mostly thanks to nice capital market growth over the last 5 years. Junior (now...