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With Deflation Possibly Near, This Economist Is All Abuzz - WSJ.com I subscribe to his economic outlook newsletter, and he's done pretty well so far. Being forewarned on the housing and credit bubble I sold my house and investments three years ago, putting it all into 30 year treasuries. Insert...

The folks over at Hoisington have a quarterly newsletter that's always worth reading, as they take a short to medium term look at economic conditions. http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2008Q4NP.pdf They make a case that this isn't your typical post-war recession. The key being that while...

So I transferred a bunch of money to Vanguard last month, and this month (my wife - not me for some reason) got a 'Time Sensitive' flyer, with a picture of a guy doing something with a pencil, announcing we're Voyager Select customers. Woot! (Oh wait a minute, I just checked more pictures, this...

Shilling on TechTicker 1 Shilling on TechTicker 2 Shilling made me FI this year by listening to his advice; he now predicts S&P 600 next year with an P/E of 15 (usually it's 10 at bottom but interest rates are really low), and that corporate profits are going to get creamed to the tune of...

Hi Folks, Has anybody read his book or studied this idea? Bloomberg.com: Worldwide I'm selling my Treasuries and am considering when to own some stocks again. My intuition says it's too early yet.

Unfortunately, it seems Modern Portfolio Theory didn't work too well this year. Comment from CALPers Comment from Gary Shilling (hope he doesn't mind) further Locally, MyCo's pension (glad to still have it) tanked this year. The costs of refunding the loss is being pushed down to the local...

Hi, I know most here follow MPT approach, but does anybody follow a barbell strategy? Taleb (The Black Swan) and Richelson (Bonds, The Unbeaten Path ...) recommend this approach. The idea is that you put 85%-90% of your portfolio into buy/hold vanilla govt. bonds, and then speculate the rest...

People have been bandying around the death, or not, of the U.S. consumer. I believe that the consumer is indeed in a secular retrenchment, and have been studying the idea the past two years, as part of my research into lucrative investing over the next decade. I won't post all of the data...

In another thread laurence asked me about my long bond strategy. In case there's general interest, or just for amusement, I thought to share it here The idea is that during some periods investing in declining interest rates is more profitable than investing in stocks given the risk premia of...

All the investing books warn of the dangers of inflation and how to protect against it, but it's too bad none of them warn of the dangers of deflation and how to protect against that too. It would have helped a lot of people this year. For some reason the investing community relegated that to...

At my company income is being cut. This is a relatively old, prosperous technology company, which survived the dot.com and after 8 years since then is lean and mean (and profitable). But recently they cut the company bonus, cut the stock purchase plan, and froze all raises etc. Back of the...

Hi All, We're nearly there, just joined the 1M club, early 40's, I work in software (architecture). Funny thing is I actually like my job, I think I'd FIRE just to get to do more interesting computer work. Glad to meet ya :)

With the action in the Treasury market last week I did finally - yay! With all the shared pain on this board recently I thought I'd start a positive thread. Don't hurt me ... :)