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It's not merely that active fund managers, as a group, can't predict market turning points. The lower (or higher) the market goes, the more convinced they become that the turning point is nowhere in sight. They are least likely to think the market has bottomed when the market bottoms, and least...

Ha, I agree with you that deflation is not likely (although I wouldn’t bet the security of my retirement that it’s impossible). But here is the issue: regardless of whether you or I think deflation can or can’t happen in the future, it has happened in the past. And because FIRECalc runs off of...

Theseus, thank you for your reply. In answer to your question, the last long, severe bout of deflation we experienced ended in 1933. This pre-dated the introduction of Social Security, so we can’t know if or how Social Security payments might have been adjusted back then. However, even though...

I agree with the other posters that you could retire now with very little risk of ever running out of money, but am wondering if the desire to stay on the job till 63.5 has to do with health insurance coverage? If you are trying to hang on for COBRA coverage, have you investigated your options...

First, let me just say that I think FIREcalc is an excellent resource, and that Early Retirement.org is providing a tremendous service by making it available and maintaining it. The simulator's use of actual historical returns is far superior to Monte Carlo models that fail to account for mean...

"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge." - Lao Tzu

Here's a clear answer from the Kaiser Family Foundation FAQs section (http://kff.org/health-reform/faq/health-reform-frequently-asked-questions/) on the ACA: I'm leaving my job and will be eligible for COBRA. Can I shop for coverage and subsidies on the marketplace instead? Yes, leaving...

To be clear here: If your friend estimates his 2014 income as just above 100% of FPL, and then it turns out his income is below 100% of FPL, he will have to pay back the premium subsidy to the IRS when he files his 2014 tax return. The savings your friend would realize on co-payments (for...

Here's what the IRS says in their Questions and Answers page (Questions and Answers on the Premium Tax Credit) on the ACA tax credit: 5. Who is eligible for the premium tax credit? You are eligible for the premium tax credit if you meet all of the following requirements: Purchase coverage...

Have you considered precious metals equities as an alternative? They have been a pretty good hedge. The average PME mutual fund had positive returns of over 45% in the 2000-02 bear market, which was better than gold's 12% returns. They didn't do as well in the 2007-09 bear market, but still...

Many people use REITs both to diversify their portfolios, and as a hedge against inflation. They did work well for both purposes up until the 2000s. But in this article (http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=624535), Samuel Lee of Morningstar notes their correlation with the...

I think the justification for not being concerned is just what you said--"money is money", and similarly a loss is a loss, whether you realize it or leave it unrealized. If you start out with a $1 million portfolio, the portfolio pays $30,000 in dividends but loses $200,000 in price, you now...

Huston, I think your Point No. 3 on inflation is crucial to shedding light on why these results seem to fly in the face of FIRECalc, as well as the published historical analyses of safe withdrawal rates and asset allocation. At least for the period since 1926, the primary risk to retirement...

I look forward to reading Lee's articles--they are consistently thought-provoking and well written. But I missed this one, thanks for pointing it out. Chris

Will do!

Thanks Hermit, I just added my name to the list. Chris

I just submitted my official 2-weeks notice this morning--last day Jan. 3. So I guess that makes me Class of 2014! Chris

racy, thanks for the recommendation, I'll check it out. Chris

Thank you omni, and I'll let you know on the book (hopefully somewhere around mid-2014). Chris

Maybe the Canadian financial sector dodged the bullet in 2008-09--but for many countries a portfolio overweighted towards banks, insurance and other high-dividend financial sector stocks (e.g., REITs) would have taken a very big hit. After all, it was companies like Lehman Brothers, Bear...

Hello fellow early-retirees, I’ve enjoyed reading the posts here for the past few weeks, and having just submitted my official 2-week notice this morning thought now was a good time to celebrate by joining the FIRE community. I’m a 56-year-old engineer—make that retired engineer. I’ve been...