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I haven't had a flat in my Tesla yet, but it seems that the sealant approach isn't recommended due to the soundproofing foam in the tires. So we carry a puncture repair kit, compressor, and jack pads in the trunk. I was tempted by those MY-AWD 4680 variants in inventory, but they still use...

Will there be a color reveal party?

I agree that white with black trim suits the Model Y and its Orca shape. :)

In case it wasn't obvious, they have two chargers: a wall charger and a mobile charger. The mobile charger can plug into a 14-50, but it maxes out at 32A. The wall charger is hard-wired and maxes out at 48A. So, if you want fast level-2 charging, the wall charger and a 60A breaker are the...

We've had our M3 for a couple weeks now, so I can give you some n00b impressions. The ordering process was brilliant compared to a dealership, but Tesla nickels-and-dimes you these days: no floor mats, no charge cord, no free supercharger (SC rates are much higher than home charging), and they...

Hi! ERs are a bit odd in that we can control our income to play various tax games. 2023 seems like an interesting year for these games. So I just bought a Tesla that ostensibly qualified for a $7500 tax credit, but I only get that credit if my tax liability >= $7500, and usually it's less...

@chassis, I'm fairly sure that nearly everybody has tried your method at one time or another. Some people seem to be able to pull it off (at least for a while), but it doesn't seem to be having much effect at a population level. So there doesn't seem to be much value in trying to spread...

This is a why I said our vocabulary is weak in this area. All of these are short-term responses, and frankly, they don't matter much. You seem to imply (1) and (2) will make you fat. I don't think so. There is an initial satiety response. It's graded, and its function is to signal...

I guess this is where we differ. Like the bathroom analogy I gave earlier: you don't really have to pee *right now* do you? Hold it. A little longer. Then what happens? Yeah, your body compensates big time. And this is the reason "eat less, move more" has been an epic failure...

Now you're talking my language! :) Our vocabulary for hunger (and satiety) is lacking for sure, but consider the case where you "eat more than your body needs." How should your body respond? You should not be hungry again for many hours after that, because your body knows what...

@chassis, you're right about CICO in some ways. It's basically the first law of thermodynamics. But I'm sure you know that countless people have tried the "eat less, move more" approach and it didn't work for them. The reason has nothing to do with thermodynamics. If there's one rule...

OP, you apparently called it! I have to say that I did sign up with coinbase. Very easy for n00bs. Got a wallet now! Send me your unwanted doge!

I don't know if they talk about it, but I personally got very excited by 2008-2009. I went in a bit early, but I was definitely a buyer.

This is what makes ER so fun. If mean reversion happens after I'm dead, I don't care. If somebody ER's today, and P/E mean-reverts over the next decade, that could suck.

Yeah, the main reason to lose weight IMO is to become insulin sensitive. Huge health benefits. Some people believe that because low-carb or keto keeps insulin low, that's how it works to reduce body fat. Interestingly Taubes himself funded a study to prove that. Turns out that's not...

I used to get the VAP advanced lipid panel, but I think they went out of business. Here's somebody's report (not mine) to give you an idea:

I like him as an example because he's a lot smarter than me, he created a back-tested model with lots of fundamental insights, and he's been crushed. He finally capitulated a few years ago (he says 2017) and he now weighs market action a lot more than he used to. But it looks like he's still...

Yeah, I guess it has some "market timing" implications to some people, which may be why it's not a very popular concept. Hussman is one of the biggest believers, and he's been waiting a *long* time for it to happen. Fighting the fed. Oops.

Absolutely. There's no timeframe implied in his equation, but if you believe it, then today's outsized returns predict future below-average returns. That's all mean-reversion suggests.

I think that Bogle had the best way to look at it. Expected return = dividend yield + earnings growth rate + change in P/E. Sometimes P/E expands (as it has recently) and that fuels most of the return. Sometimes P/E contracts. Each year that P/E expansion fuels returns, that adds to the...

Agreed, but I think the reason you're seeing a lot of resistance is because CICO doesn't provide a very useful framework for weight control. The obvious inference is that all you need to do to drop body fat is reduce CI or increase CO, but the body will fight that if you just approach it with...

A "broken" metabolism doesn't violate CICO. In the biggest loser study (done by Kevin Hall, a CICO-loving physicist), resting metabolic rates went down after weight loss, which is expected. I.e., CO at rest went down. The magnitude of the drop surprised Hall. Keto doesn't break CICO...

Mean-reversion doesn't apply to price. It applies to characteristics that are rooted to some fundamental value. The classic example is height. The mean height is a function of biology (hormones, energy input, etc). So if you see a bunch of very tall people, it's likely that the next...

Uh oh. What Elon giveth, Elon taketh away.