Another "Can I Retire Yet" Post

The problem being "how do you even think about leaving a high paying job you don't necessarily hate, but something inside you tells you to stop and spend more time with kids, family, etc."

This is the *very heart* of the problem. Your perspective in this post is really helpful, and gives me a different way to look at it. Thank you.
 
Just be really, really, really sure you have future healthcare expenditures nailed down. Problem is ....you can't. No one can.
You and your wife have 20 years before MEdicare kicks in....if it is still there. Plus your children will need insurance for at least another 10 years.

To give you a little perspective, I spoke with a rep from our state exchange who told me that the info he received is that most carriers next year will have a 10-15% increase in premiums with higher deductibles and OOP maximums. This is because many states with their own healthcare exchange will lose subsidies from the Gov't as was planned under the ACA. The reason many have dropped state exchanges. My wife and I are ten years older than you guys with a NW of $4.5M of which $4.3 is invested at an allocation of 50/50. Our expenses approximate $50,000/year. I am retired ....my wife not yet. I ran the numbers until we both qualify for MEdicare with 15% increases in premiums every year and assuming the worst case scenario that we would max out deductibles every year. For the next 9 years this would cost us $300,000 for medical expenses alone. And that doesn't even include dental. CAn we still afford it? Sure but my wife will probably now work until age 60 ( 5 more years) bringing us closer to MEdicare eligibility....not for the money ... but for the excellent plan she has at work.

With the money you are making, unless you cannot stand your job, I would probably continue working until the youngest child entered college. This only puts you and your wife in your early 50's with still decades ahead to enjoy retirement. Unless consulting work or some other endeavor would provide some steady part time income. I just think future healthcare expenses will be higher than even projected. Anyway good luck to you.
 
Just as an idea. Maybe inverting the problem will help some.

Another way for me to invert the problem is to consider how I'd feel if I were fired (like let go from work, not FIREd ;^)) Would I feel good about that, or bad? I've mused for a few years that I'd be really happy in that event. Maybe that's telling. I was downsized (after earning out after an acquisition) a few years ago, and I remember being stoked, even though I wasn't FI at the time.

Just be really, really, really sure you have future healthcare expenditures nailed down. Problem is ....you can't. No one can.

Yeah. I've budgeted $20K/year and will have to figure something else out if the cost of healthcare doubles every 5 years. If that's sustainable politically (!), I could see the benefit of moving out of country and returning or traveling to another developed country if major surgery is needed.

I'm pretty sure that 5 years from now it won't be politically feasible to charge a family $40K/year for health insurance. I think that would pretty much end small business ownership in the US unless some other provision was made.
 
Mrloco
It's a great point. Healthcare has always been my biggest wildcard concern. When I started my own business it was also the most stressful thing (more stressful for me cause no ACA back then and so it was really every person for themselves).

That said I also try to look at broad probabilities. Who wins the election, and then next one and the next one has a big impact on ACA (probably). But also on taxes, etc.

Imagine if national tax policy mirrors California and all investment income is treated like normal income? That would hit a lot of retired people hard.

Imagine if some things that are income tested become means tested? That's also a big change.

There's many hidden risks and while I agree healthcare costs is a major one.. you can also go crazy trying to mitigate all of it.

I also weigh the more invisible risks. For example every year I get older there's a greater chance of a fatal heart attack or cancer or what have you. Every day I commute to work there's a risk of a disabilitating car accident.

And of course it's hard to weigh that against the value of time with family. It rips my heart when I read about people who retired and then quickly lost their spouse. Of course retiring and running out of money is pretty horrible too.

I just see it as there's always risk on every side and I guess we all have to navigate our own way through.

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app
 
Back
Top Bottom