Anyone Else Gambling on Boeing (BA)

[Chuckanut]

One other things to consider is that there are two big players who do not want Boeing to fail:

1. The US Government - if they would not let GM go under what makes people think they would let Boeing go under.

2. The Airlines - I suspect they wouldn't mind a 3rd player in the industry. I seriously doubt they want to see their options reduced to Airbus for the foreseeable future.

 

[Starsky]

Given that this evidently wasn't a vendor flaw, and was a known problem to many at Boeing, their liability is almost unlimited. This is a culture problem, and I don't see Boeing recovering from this without some significant blood-letting. and maybe even rebranding.

The scale of the problem is unprecedented. This will be a new case study for HBS crisis management.

 

[mpeirce]

1. The US Government - if they would not let GM go under what makes people think they would let Boeing go under.

And Boeing is much more important defense contractor. There has been a lot of consolidation over the years. DoD will never let Boeing die. That doesn't rule out bankruptcy and reorganization, but still.

 

[NW-Bound]

One other things to consider is that there are two big players who do not want Boeing to fail:

1. The US Government - if they would not let GM go under what makes people think they would let Boeing go under.

2. The Airlines - I suspect they wouldn't mind a 3rd player in the industry. I seriously doubt they want to see their options reduced to Airbus for the foreseeable future.

+1

The chance of Boeing going bankrupt is low.

However, there's too much risk for its earnings and reputation to recover. I will pass on it as an investment.

 

[Montecfo]

Amazing hyperbole in this thread. Hopefully investor views become even more negative.

 

[RetireBy90]

^^^ have to agree with Montecfo. Remember the thousands of flights with and 2 disasters. I read early on about how the US airlines don’t have the same issue as they have purchased additional options on planes that mitigate the MCAS issue, and the military had changes to planes built for them that would keep the same issue from occurring. We live in a time where media reports jump on anything to sell more media or get eyes on advertisements. Yes, we live in that time so as investor I have to accept that and consider it in making investment decisions. However, we have lived through many cycles like this that have been overcome by companies involved. However, I was a late investor in Pan Am so I must also consider that I may be wrong. I really can’t see BA going away, but worst case for me would be several years in penalty box with reduced profits. iMHO

 

[BeachOrCity]

I didn’t see anyone including me saying they were going out of business.

What I did say myself is that the risk is not adequately priced into the current valuation. The stock is hardly on sale as it is trading around what it was at year end 2018.

 

[RetireBy90]

I didn’t see anyone including me saying they were going out of business.

What I did say myself is that the risk is not adequately priced into the current valuation. The stock is hardly on sale as it is trading around what it was at year end 2018.

As they say, the difference is what makes a market.

 

[target2019]

Boeing is dropping out of XS-1 space program to direct its resources elsewhere.
https://www.livescience.com/boeing-withdraws-darpa-military-space-plane.html

Stock might bounce on this news.

 

[CRLLS]

I could very easily see BA splitting into 2 or more separately traded companies. Maybe Military, Commercial, Space, Financial, Service ? While an interesting idea, I don't think
I would invest in BA under the current situation.

 

[NW-Bound]

I could very easily see BA splitting into 2 or more separately traded companies. Maybe Military, Commercial, Space, Financial, Service ? While an interesting idea, I don't think I would invest in BA under the current situation.

It should be noted that the current Boeing was created by a merger in about 2000 between Boeing and McDonnell Douglas. At that point, Boeing was primarily in civilian aircraft, while MDD was stronger in military and space.

It is difficult to see the future effect on the reputation of the company from the 2 accidents. In 1979, the horrific accident of the MDD DC-10 when an engine detached from a wing in Chicago caused a permanent scar on the company reputation, even though the accident was later ruled to be caused by American Airlines. MDD was never able to compete again to design and build new civilian jetliners.

 

[BeachOrCity]

This eval just came in my seeking alpha feed:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...ity?utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha

 

[RetireBy90]

Just read on CNBC app FAA told airlines the 737 max could be recertified before mud tear, ahead of Boeing timeline.

 

[Ed_The_Gypsy]

Gambling is the correct word.

 

[RISP]

Boeing reports no new jet orders in January

Airbus had 247. This is going to get A LOT uglier than people seem to realize. I wouldn't touch BA with a 10-foot pole.

 

[Montecfo]

It caught an analyst upgrade to "buy" a couple of weeks ago. They seem to be getting things in order but time will tell.

 

[RetireBy90]

Woot - managed to convert my BA from TIRA to Roth at $320 and today we are in profit with latest at $349. They had a piece yesterday I think showing a test flight. Now my problem is how long to ride this. I don't expect back to $440 as the company rep has been damaged and will take time and $$. I'm thinking of an exit price about $400

 

[Dash man]

I dumped my Boeing a couple of weeks ago and bought AMZN and ULTA. I’m not disappointed. [emoji3]

 

[Chuckanut]

Here is another article critical of Boeing. At the risk of seeming to pile-on, I will publish the link. I hope that the Boing Aircraft Company has better days ahead of it.

https://arstechnica.com/science/202...-cargo-delivery-plan-is-very-unflattering/#p3

I regards to the Lunar Cargo contract:

In his assessment late last year, NASA's acting chief of human spaceflight, Ken Bowersox, wrote, "Since Boeing’s proposal was the highest priced and the lowest rated under the Mission Suitability factor, while additionally providing a conditional fixed price, I have decided to eliminate Boeing from further award consideration."

 

[Chuckanut]

It looks like we might find out when Boeing will launch the next unmanned test of it's Starline spacecraft. NASA and Boeing will have a press conference on 10/19 to give more information.

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-boeing-to-provide-update-on-boeing-s-orbital-flight-test-2

NASA and Boeing will hold a joint teleconference at 2:30 p.m. EDT Tuesday, Oct. 19, to update media on the company’s CST-100 Starliner spacecraft. Teams will discuss work on the oxidizer isolation valve issue that was discovered ahead of the planned uncrewed Orbital Flight Test-2 (OFT-2) mission to the International Space Station in August.

 

[Sniggle]

After I saw this thread I dipped my toe in, doing a buy/write of 300 shares at 221.79 and selling 3 227.5 calls on 8/24. Long story short, after numerous rolls (5), I exited my position when the 10/1 220 calls I sold were assigned.

I made $1602.96 over the 38 days I owned the stock, or 2.4% over that period, for an annual rate of return of approx. 26%.

I will do it again

 

[MichealKnight]

Inexperienced Investor

I dumped my Boeing a couple of weeks ago and bought AMZN and ULTA. I’m not disappointed. [emoji3]

Inexperienced at investing in stocks here, but I"ve owned a few small-medium sized companies, and have had 20 years off interface with a MegaCorp.

Big-Picture wise I feel America will indeed have an aviation industry. And it's going to be Boeing. And no different than autos - the government is not going to let it go down, and plenty of help will be provided.

My layman's worry: With all the bad news at Boeing, and even the news that management knew about it.....the culture was rotten somewhere up there and therefore I can't ascertain if the bad news is 100% put out there. This is one I'd rather not try to catch a falling knife and I'm happy to miss some upside on the way back up, one day

 

[Dash man]

Inexperienced at investing in stocks here, but I"ve owned a few small-medium sized companies, and have had 20 years off interface with a MegaCorp.



Big-Picture wise I feel America will indeed have an aviation industry. And it's going to be Boeing. And no different than autos - the government is not going to let it go down, and plenty of help will be provided.



My layman's worry: With all the bad news at Boeing, and even the news that management knew about it.....the culture was rotten somewhere up there and therefore I can't ascertain if the bad news is 100% put out there. This is one I'd rather not try to catch a falling knife and I'm happy to miss some upside on the way back up, one day

The quote was a long time ago. BA was 310 when I sold it. I recently bought some back at 206.