Bad early retirement withdrawal strategy?

Jheroine

Confused about dryer sheets
Joined
Oct 3, 2012
Messages
3
Hello Everyone, I've been a reader for 2 years but first time posting. I turned 52 late last year and am planning an early exit strategy in case my work drives me crazy enough to retire early, which would be at 55. I'm in CalPERS, but have been a consultant for half of my 27 years career so I don't have a lot of service years with CalPERS. If I do retire once I turn 55, I should be able to get about 32% of my current salary via CalPERS. I do worry that I won't have enough to live on comfortably if I retire at 55 as I have read many reports and studies saying that $1 Million is not nearly enough. Here's my situation, I'm a single female, no kids but have 3 cats and I feed many strays and TNR them as well. My widowed mother lives with me (she collects SS but I pay for everything). I plan to live in my small mortgage-free house until I die and since I promised my parents I would pass it onto my nephew and niece, I will not count this as part of my asset.

I live in Southern California and although I plan to travel a lot, I do not plan to move out of state. I have approximately $125K in 457b, $1 M in 401K, $225K cash, $475K investments, $250K ROTH. I will get approximately $50K/year in pension. Currently I average about $45K per year in expenses (necessities, hobbies, charitable contributions). Since I would be retiring with less than 20 years CalPERS service, I will only get 80% contribution to health insurance and will have to pay approximately $500/month out of pocket for premiums. I do not foresee a reduction in my expenses although there could be a change in types of activities (currently I snowboard, travel, and eat out as hobbies, plan to continue, and contribute more to charity and more volunteering). I have never had to budget so I'm not sure I will be able to afford to retire and live for optimistically 35+ more years on what I have (Mom's side lived to 100, Dad passed away at 75 so maybe I'll be lucky to reach 80).

So assuming I will have $50K/year in pension, I plan to withdraw $50K/year from my 457b plan (I anticipate at 55, I will have about $250K in the account as I currently max out my pre-tax deductions for my 401K and 457b), so that should last me until I'm 60. From 60 to 70, I plan to withdraw from my 401K accounts, and at 70, I will withdraw the minimum required from 401K (what's left of it) and file for Social Security (expect it to be maxed at $50K/yr). I was very worried whether there would still be Soc Sec by the time I file, but a friend who is now 67 told me not to worry, that there's no way the government will let SS fail although they might reduce it. I hope he's right. I'm thinking with $100K pre-tax, I would have to pay $25K tax and leave me $75K/year for expenses/some wiggle room. I also have LTC insurance that is projected to cost up to $10K/year (currently paying $3200/year). Will I have enough to live on and last me until the end with this withdrawal plan? Suggestions to other withdrawal strategies would be welcome. Thanks all!
 
Hi and welcome.

You've done a great job saving.

Do you know if your SS will be reduced because of your pension? My sister spent half her career as a teacher, half in business. Her CalSTERS pension is nice, but her SS is reduced because of the pension.

I'm a little confused about your statement that $1M isn't enough - because you have a lot more than $1M. (125k+1M+225k+457k+250k = $2.057M.

3% (very sustainable) withdrawal rate gives you $60k/year withdrawals.
 
Thanks Rodi.

I don't believe my SS will be reduced since I have paid SS taxes throughout all my jobs, at least that was what a quick search on Google says.

I just said the $1M because that seems to be an amount that is thrown around by many retirement articles I've read, that it requires a lot more, so even with $2M, I wasn't sure if I'd be comfortable.

I guess being single, I feel like I don't have any backup in case something happens to me. That's why I bought the LTC plan since I was 30, so been paying for a long time already.
 
OP - you seem to be mixing current value and future values (I think it's better to talk in today's dollars, otherwise you have the added complexity of inflation):

"So assuming I will have $50K/year in pension, I plan to withdraw $50K/year from my 457b plan.." <= this is current values

" and file for Social Security (expect it to be maxed at $50K/yr)." <= this appears to be a future value.
 
Highlighting the important parts...unless I'm missing something, your pension will start right away at 55, and will cover all of your current expenses, and $5K of the $6K/yr for health insurance. With $50K in pension and $50K in withdrawals, your taxes shouldn't be anywhere near $25K, although it's better to overestimate than underestimate. But even with that budget, if you're concerned, you can stick to your $66K/year budget and probably preserve a lot of your savings. And don't forget, you'll be saving for another three years, so you'll have to see what your savings look like then!

It's a bit of a project, but you can put your numbers into https://www.i-orp.com/Plans/extended.html and have it suggest an optimized withdrawal strategy, and it'll show your accounts being drawn down over the years.

Hello Everyone, I've been a reader for 2 years but first time posting. I turned 52 late last year and am planning an early exit strategy in case my work drives me crazy enough to retire early, which would be at 55. I'm in CalPERS, but have been a consultant for half of my 27 years career so I don't have a lot of service years with CalPERS. If I do retire once I turn 55, I should be able to get about 32% of my current salary via CalPERS. I do worry that I won't have enough to live on comfortably if I retire at 55 as I have read many reports and studies saying that $1 Million is not nearly enough. Here's my situation, I'm a single female, no kids but have 3 cats and I feed many strays and TNR them as well. My widowed mother lives with me (she collects SS but I pay for everything). I plan to live in my small mortgage-free house until I die and since I promised my parents I would pass it onto my nephew and niece, I will not count this as part of my asset.

I live in Southern California and although I plan to travel a lot, I do not plan to move out of state. I have approximately $125K in 457b, $1 M in 401K, $225K cash, $475K investments, $250K ROTH. I will get approximately $50K/year in pension. Currently I average about $45K per year in expenses (necessities, hobbies, charitable contributions). Since I would be retiring with less than 20 years CalPERS service, I will only get 80% contribution to health insurance and will have to pay approximately $500/month out of pocket for premiums. I do not foresee a reduction in my expenses although there could be a change in types of activities (currently I snowboard, travel, and eat out as hobbies, plan to continue, and contribute more to charity and more volunteering). I have never had to budget so I'm not sure I will be able to afford to retire and live for optimistically 35+ more years on what I have (Mom's side lived to 100, Dad passed away at 75 so maybe I'll be lucky to reach 80).

So assuming I will have $50K/year in pension, I plan to withdraw $50K/year from my 457b plan (I anticipate at 55, I will have about $250K in the account as I currently max out my pre-tax deductions for my 401K and 457b), so that should last me until I'm 60. From 60 to 70, I plan to withdraw from my 401K accounts, and at 70, I will withdraw the minimum required from 401K (what's left of it) and file for Social Security (expect it to be maxed at $50K/yr). I was very worried whether there would still be Soc Sec by the time I file, but a friend who is now 67 told me not to worry, that there's no way the government will let SS fail although they might reduce it. I hope he's right. I'm thinking with $100K pre-tax, I would have to pay $25K tax and leave me $75K/year for expenses/some wiggle room. I also have LTC insurance that is projected to cost up to $10K/year (currently paying $3200/year). Will I have enough to live on and last me until the end with this withdrawal plan? Suggestions to other withdrawal strategies would be welcome. Thanks all!
 
I agree that you are better off than you are thinking you are. With approx $2M investment, and a paid off house, plus the pension; you are in good shape by my judgment. Even at 3% withdrawal rate, that is approx $60K. Then add in $50K pension, and future SS. Your LTC will help if you need that, although it is likely you will end up with more than just your house in your estate. Your basic pension amount is nearly what your current budget is with the added health ins.
I think once you add 3 years of contributions, you will be even better shape and can retire at 55. Then enjoy retirement, you will have enough to travel and spend some additional over your budget. Sure SS may get a haircut, but that will just reduce the amount you get. I don't know the rules if your pension affects SS or not.
 
Thanks everyone for your reassurance that I might be okay.

Whatever I have left in my estate (besides my house), I plan to leave to charity but will try and enjoy an early retirement.

Happy New Year!
 
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