Buying a little here - where we are in the news cycle

[dex]

I've divided up my remaining cash into 4 pots and will be buying today - I think Thurs & Fri will be relatively flat.

A rule of thumb is to buy towards the end of the week in a bear market - beginning in the bull market.

The stock market is focusing in on earning reports now.

http://www.early-retirement.org/for...before-this-stock-downturn-is-over-39767.html

 

[ziggy29]

The funny thing is that whacked the market based partially on bad expected earnings, and when they get bad earnings... it gets whacked again. That's not how rational markets work. Rational markets usually discount the future and then correct after the rumor becomes news. Not this market -- everything is a reason to sell.

 

[REWahoo]

Rational markets usually discount the future and then correct after the rumor becomes news. Not this market -- everything is a reason to sell.

Which may be further evidence we haven't seen the bottom yet.

"My guess is that, when that low does finally occur, we'll be witnessing, and experiencing ourselves, a lot more of the psychological traits associated with capitulation: Exhaustion, disgust, lack of interest, even apathy."

The difference between panic and capitulation - MarketWatch

 

[Bestwifeever]

I admire your strategy, Dex--but we are scaredy cats and waiting here.... and we will be thrilled to be wrong.

 

[al_bundy]

i have to check my newsletter from last night to see what the sell signals are. making money on shorts today and don't want to get too greedy

one is a bit more conservative in it's prediction and Bob Prechter's analysts are saying 800 for the SP500 in the next few weeks.

 

[dex]

i have to check my newsletter from last night to see what the sell signals are. making money on shorts today and don't want to get too greedy

one is a bit more conservative in it's prediction and Bob Prechter's analysts are saying 800 for the SP500 in the next few weeks.

Which newsletter do you read?

 

[W2R]

Seems to me that market bottoms are seldom recognized until afterwards. However, I think that at the very least we can confidently state that the market has dropped.

In my opinion, for those who aren't clairvoyant this is as good a time as any to invest. Dex, I like your strategy.

 

[armor99]

Well.... I finally bit the bullet. Even as I am writing this, just put opened up a taxable account at Vanguard. 50% in Total Stock Market Fund... and 50% Total International fund. This is something that always gives me a bit of apprehension. I suppose it will always make me nervous moving a lot of cash from a safe (relatively) bank account and into the market. I truly do beleive this is a once in a life time opportunity for me... and I will kick myself forever if I did not "go for it". Market is already way down today... but my money has not hit vanguard yet.... which is just fine....

 

[al_bundy]

Which newsletter do you read?

Elliottwave.com and elliottwavetechnology.com

it's around $120 a month for both and i easily made it since last week.

the former is run by Bob Prechter but he has a bunch of peons writing the updates. the latter also uses MACD and RSI for it's buy and sell signals and they do more signals to try to catch every move and they are a bit more conservative.

checked and last night's copy says 912 sell target for the SP and 8533 for the Dow. For the Nasdaq they use NDX and not COMPQ. Monday they said get ready to short again.

Bob says we are in wave 5 and get ready for the SP to go to 784 - 812 before we rally. I checked the math and it's about right although you can use a higher target for the low.

 

[dex]

Well.... I finally bit the bullet. Even as I am writing this, just put opened up a taxable account at Vanguard. 50% in Total Stock Market Fund... and 50% Total International fund. This is something that always gives me a bit of apprehension. I suppose it will always make me nervous moving a lot of cash from a safe (relatively) bank account and into the market. I truly do beleive this is a once in a life time opportunity for me... and I will kick myself forever if I did not "go for it". Market is already way down today... but my money has not hit vanguard yet.... which is just fine....

For future reference - I strongly recommend averaging into and out of a position - unless it is a small amount. You may not catch the top or bottom but it gives you options.

Starting when the cash I have to invest in funds is gone. I will take the dividends from the Vang. High Yield fund and invest them in stock funds. It is a small amount but it should help my portfolio recover faster from the drop.

 

[ziggy29]

I'm going all in... with new contributions. I've not been on pace to fully fund my 401K this year, but I just changed my new contribution election to put 20% of my salary into it with each pay period. It'll make current cash flow tighter for the rest of the year, but I want to plow as much new money into the market as I can. That should just about max me out by year's end.

Still not ready to catch the falling knife by finishing my rebalancing, though. I really should but I'm letting the fear emotion alter my decision-making (bad, I know)...

 

[dex]

Bob says we are in wave 5 and get ready for the SP to go to 784 - 812 before we rally. I checked the math and it's about right although you can use a higher target for the low.

Those numbers are close to the last low - several years ago. It would be a double bottom.

Take a look at Decisionpoint.com - Complete Market Research at a Glance also for other tools -

 

[al_bundy]

the wave 5 is just for the august downturn. looking at the entire October 2007 high till now we are only finishing up wave 3. wave 4 is a rally with the hypothetical top being 1200 - 1300 on the SP500 since that is where wave 1 ends. then wave 5 will start next year and the lows are anywhere from 400 - 600 on the SP500 depending on who you ask and how you read the last 100 years of data
\
very interesting, i'm reading about Elliott Wave and follow the daily prices every 30 minutes or so and the movements correspond pretty much how Elliott said they should back in the 1930's. what's more amazing is that the theory along with other technical indicators seems to hold true even on longterm movements over decades.

 

[FIREd]

If the DOW remains firmly below 9000 by the close, I will do some buying too.

 

[Hamlet]

You're going to look like a genius in 10 years.

May look a little stupid for a year or two, though.

Now is the time to get rich.

Well.... I finally bit the bullet. Even as I am writing this, just put opened up a taxable account at Vanguard. 50% in Total Stock Market Fund... and 50% Total International fund. This is something that always gives me a bit of apprehension. I suppose it will always make me nervous moving a lot of cash from a safe (relatively) bank account and into the market. I truly do beleive this is a once in a life time opportunity for me... and I will kick myself forever if I did not "go for it". Market is already way down today... but my money has not hit vanguard yet.... which is just fine....

 

[HFWR]

Which may be further evidence we haven't seen the bottom yet.

"My guess is that, when that low does finally occur, we'll be witnessing, and experiencing ourselves, a lot more of the psychological traits associated with capitulation: Exhaustion, disgust, lack of interest, even apathy."

The difference between panic and capitulation - MarketWatch

I'm there...