Chasing Yield or Wise Move?

marko

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Thought I'd run this by the collective wisdom.

Dividend investor here. Earlier this year I moved about 2% of the portfolio to a split purchase of TBills Fund (paying 5.x%) and a Floating Bank Rate Fund (paying 8.x%) with the idea of moving that cash back to the fund I "borrowed" it from when year end distributions are expected. That fund typically pays about 12% at year-end in dividends and MF cap gains.

Just received my preliminary year end distribution report from T. Rowe Price and learned that the year end dividend and cap gains will only total 6%. Disappointing. The dividends remained solid but the cap gains were pitiful.

So: I'm thinking of adding a more aggressive amount (10%? total) to the TBill fund and Bank Rate fund in January after the payouts. Then, review again at next year's year end report as the funds only pay once a year. In short, instead of being happy with the 6% at year end, move a bit more to the TBills et al and reap another 6% +/- in interest throughout the following 10 months.

My main concern is that I'd miss a market growth spurt, and while reaping better interest income, would lose on the growth end. Having said that, rumblings of a recession make me wonder how likely that would be. All the above are inside my IRA so taxes are not a big issue.

Yes, I realize that I'm chasing yield and no, we're not desperate for additional income to make up the shortfall and yes I understand how a dividend payment lowers the share price, but wondering what's wrong with this strategy.
 
What's wrong with the strategy is you think you can predict the future. If you feel strongly about the adjustment and understand the risk/reward its probably not a big deal. As long as you won't adversely impact your overall investing/financial goals you can just chalk this up as a "hobby".
 
What's wrong with the strategy is you think you can predict the future. If you feel strongly about the adjustment and understand the risk/reward its probably not a big deal. As long as you won't adversely impact your overall investing/financial goals you can just chalk this up as a "hobby".

I'm old enough to know quite well that I can't predict what's going to happen 3 minutes from now.

But your overall point is correct: I tend to "nibble around the edges" with relatively low risk movements. Even a very bad move has limited consequences.
 
With equities going below their 12 month moving average AND unemployment increasing, my opinion is now is not the time to increase equity risk. Probably best to stay put or decrease equities. This has worked in the past but not 100% of markets since 1950. Of course, if you sell you should have a plan for buying back.

P.S. not sure if the OP was included stocks or just about fixed income
 
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I had a LOT of my AA in stocks... but when I moved my 401(k) over I put about 10% of my portfolio into bonds and preferred stocks to get these higher divis/interest...



My weighted avg current yield is 8.6%... that is not YTM as most of my bonds are bought under par and my preferred that has a maturity is almost all under par...


I am happy with this.. do not plan on every putting it back into stocks..


I would only do what you want (move into interest bearing) if I planned to keep it there... market timing is not a reason to move it...
 
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I would only do what you want (move into interest bearing) if I planned to keep it there... market timing is not a reason to move it...

Thanks. The only "market timing" involved is that interest rates are now at 5.x% which is a relatively recent occurrence. Sounds like "time" to take advantage and pivot a bit.
 
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Thanks. The only "market timing" involved is that interest rates are now at 5.x% which is a relatively recent occurrence. Sounds like "time" to take advantage and pivot a bit.


yes.. pivot is OK... adjusting your AA is pivoting... getting another 10% or so into income producing assets can be a wise move...


My question would be... why not lock in some longer term holdings... I do think rates will be at this level for a few years, maybe a bit higher... so some might not want to go out 10, 20 or 30 years... but holding to maturity is a way to know your return..
 
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