Cyclical, Financials, and Industrials

[refi]

I'm currently heavyweight in tech stocks, some have taken a beating YTD, but still looking good overall, since most (not all) have been acquired pre-dip last year or during the dip last year and I've held on.

With that said, I'm not too sure what the rest of the years holds with increasing interest and my portfolio has a number of very leveraged tech companies not making profits yet.

So the question is:

1) Do I start buying some cyclicals, financials, and industrials? Don't currently have huge exposure. If so, how do I enter, any specific ETFs? Do I buy into travel, banks, restuarants, materials, etc..?

2) There's been quite a run up these areas given the anticipation of this reopening. Is it too late? Do I just keep the course and buy into my normal S&P ETFs?

3) Do I ditch some of my tech stocks? Some of my stocks i'm still bullish long-term - SHOP, MELI, PINS, OKTA but short-term, am a bit hesitant. At this point, I think i should hold as I still believe in thesis, and have taken the hit YTD already.

Note: I do have a solid allocation in ETFs and Mutual funds that I won't touch. Asking this more so for the cash I have on hand and my tech/single stock picking portfolio.


Thanks!

 

[flintnational]

OP, you have asked some very good questions. However, I do not know the answers to those questions. Accordingly, I have chosen to invest in broad index funds. I suspect some of the stock pickers on the forum will come along shortly and provide their opinions. But, please remember, if you do not know the answers to these questions, maybe you should not invest in individual stocks. Good luck with your decision.

 

[Montecfo]

My market view is that we are in a rapidly growing economy with rising interest rates. I believe the large uptick in inflation is temporary and will moderate over the next 12 no.

I am not adding to the smaller pre-earnings tech names, such as the ones you mentioned, here in this rising rate environment. I may add to the blue chip tech (FAANG + MSFT) selectively on dips, particularly GOOG, FB and AMZN. I lightened some tech in Feb and trimmed a bit more recently. I did add TTD on the big dip.

I have been adding to my banks and oils. Also REITs and drugs, which have gotten cheap, being very selective.

I don't think it is too late for reopening plays if you are selective and do your homework.

This is not investment advice, YMMV, do not try this at home, etc.

 

[Dash man]

I agree you may not be suited to individual stock investing. Asking an Internet forum what sectors to move some investments to may not be your best approach. I agree you should look for some broad market ETFs and stick to them. Include about 10% developed countries ETFs in the mix too.

 

[target2019]

I'm currently heavyweight in tech stocks, some have taken a beating YTD, but still looking good overall, since most (not all) have been acquired pre-dip last year or during the dip last year and I've held on.

With that said, I'm not too sure what the rest of the years holds with increasing interest and my portfolio has a number of very leveraged tech companies not making profits yet.

So the question is:

1) Do I start buying some cyclicals, financials, and industrials? Don't currently have huge exposure. If so, how do I enter, any specific ETFs? Do I buy into travel, banks, restuarants, materials, etc..?

2) There's been quite a run up these areas given the anticipation of this reopening. Is it too late? Do I just keep the course and buy into my normal S&P ETFs?

3) Do I ditch some of my tech stocks? Some of my stocks i'm still bullish long-term - SHOP, MELI, PINS, OKTA but short-term, am a bit hesitant. At this point, I think i should hold as I still believe in thesis, and have taken the hit YTD already.

Note: I do have a solid allocation in ETFs and Mutual funds that I won't touch. Asking this more so for the cash I have on hand and my tech/single stock picking portfolio.


Thanks!

I think I understand that you're looking for a go-to ETF you can add to, that may zig when Tech zags.

This page makes sense of business cycle in general. Whether it will help you find prosperity is to be found out.
https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eres...ectors/si_business_cycle.jhtml?tab=sibusiness

For example, we are in the early stage, where Tech does well. Look for underperforming sector and invest in that now.

Or use your broad ETF. That's the simplest answer.

 

[Out of Steam]

I agree you should look for some broad market ETFs and stick to them. Include about 10% developed countries ETFs in the mix too.

Did you mean to suggest 10% developing country ETFs, rather than developed country ETFs?

The converse of 90% developing country seems like an unwise allocation for a novice investor.

 

[Dash man]

Did you mean to suggest 10% developing country ETFs, rather than developed country ETFs?

The converse of 90% developing country seems like an unwise allocation for a novice investor. [emoji57]

No, I meant developed countries like The EU, Japan, Korea, Canada, Australia, etc. I avoid emerging markets because China is still considered an emerging market.

The rest should be in US ETFs.

 

[Out of Steam]

Did you mean to suggest 10% developing country ETFs, rather than developed country ETFs?

The converse of 90% developing country seems like an unwise allocation for a novice investor.

Got it, your recommendation is 90% US, 10% developed countries other than the US.

My personal tendency has been about 20% non-US.

 

[refi]

I think I understand that you're looking for a go-to ETF you can add to, that may zig when Tech zags.

This page makes sense of business cycle in general. Whether it will help you find prosperity is to be found out.
https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eres...ectors/si_business_cycle.jhtml?tab=sibusiness

For example, we are in the early stage, where Tech does well. Look for underperforming sector and invest in that now.

Or use your broad ETF. That's the simplest answer.

Thanks for the insight folks. Yea, wasn't my intention to be overweight in single stock picking, just happened; I picked some great winners over the past years, that's why my single stock picking portfolio far surpassed my regular broad market holdings.

With that said, i'm trying to be smarter and reallocate to more funds and not market time. The main issue is how I sell units (or rather buy and hold some more) without incurring a large capital event.

Anyways, a bit of rambling, will look at some cyclical opportunities, but try to reallocate to easier/hands-off investing choices.

 

[DrRoy]

I have chosen to invest in broad index funds. Please remember, if you do not know the answers to your questions, maybe you should not invest in individual stocks.

+1

 

[target2019]

Thanks for the insight folks. Yea, wasn't my intention to be overweight in single stock picking, just happened; I picked some great winners over the past years, that's why my single stock picking portfolio far surpassed my regular broad market holdings.

With that said, i'm trying to be smarter and reallocate to more funds and not market time. The main issue is how I sell units (or rather buy and hold some more) without incurring a large capital event.

Anyways, a bit of rambling, will look at some cyclical opportunities, but try to reallocate to easier/hands-off investing choices.

Rambling is good, so long as you don't get lost!

We've reduced the number of individual holdings (mostly inherited) by 50% at least over a few years. The easy part was selling losers to offset winners. Covid presented another opportunity, and took advantage of that also.

Dividend re-investment is turned off. Periodically we take uninvested cash and put it in money market, muni fund, or a broader ETF. That's our individual approach. Each year there'll be more trimming.

 

[bingybear]

I have part of my allocation in cycles ... IWM, SCHM and materials VAW
cycles have been running doe months....