Getting excited in PA

[baseman250]

I FINALLY got around to looking at spending for the last couple of years. Just about what I figured...

2018 = ~$45K
2019 = will end up remarkably similar
(Will look at 2016 & 2017 this weekend, but don't anticipate any surprises.)

I was running FireCalc at a $75K/yr spend with very good results.

Employer-provided med/dental/vision premiums for the past few years have been running at about $5K/yr, but I'll earmark $10k/yr for premiums and deductible when ER'ed... and, as someone did point out, I haven't figured in a LTC plan.

Anyway, I have at least two more years before ER is even remotely possible, and a lot can change before then. I also want to replace both high-mileage cars (and maybe a 10 year old motorcycle)...

I'll be mostly lurking at this point, but this is an amazing resource. Thanks to all that take the time to respond!

Welcome!

It sounds like you need to spend some close-up time with your expenses. You don't want to retire on "75-100 should be fine" - you want to have a real solid idea of what you'll need/want.

Look at your actual data for the past year or 3. Resist the urge to say "ooh well we'll spend less on clothing/gas when we retire" - for now at least. Just pull the info together. Then add in healthcare and taxes. Spread in costs for new cars, a new roof, big repairs, the kind of things you have every 5 years or so. Have a browse over on healthcare.gov to get an idea of prices for next year and then swag it in your plans, knowing it can change quite a lot each year.

Most people are going to want to placeholder-budget at least $1k per month for ACA expenses (an HSA account is good to start now if you can take it with you).

If your expenses really would be $100k per year, then even at a 4% rule (tight, not advised), your "nut" would be $2.5M. Most folks here would say go with 3% - 3.5% for your annual withdrawal rate. So this is why you see there's a big difference between $75 per year and $100. And why there's a big difference between "that should work" vs. "I know this is what we'll be fine with as a budget".

With 10 years between your RE and Medicare/SS, you'll want a good degree of confidence.