Good time to buy gold/gold ETF now - Nov., 2017?

non dividend paying stocks do not generate income .neither does my art work . i only profit when i sell . investments do not have to spin off income , they can just be something that appreciates over the years.

for the most part anything you buy that you think will go up in value can be an investment .

i market time my gold buying and selling , personally my view is i am speculating more than investing in my gold but many would still consider even market timing , investing .
 
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non dividend paying stocks do not generate income .neither does my art work . i only profit when i sell . investments do not have to spin off income , they can just be something that appreciates over the years.

for the most part anything you buy that you think will go up in value can be an investment .

i market time my gold buying and selling , personally my view is i am speculating more than investing in my gold but many would still consider even market timing , investing .
All true, but I think there are some fundamental differences:

Buying stocks means putting tens or even hundreds of thousands of employees working to make money for me. To the extent they are successful my investment will grow in value. I like that, especially when I'm well diversified in stocks.

Real estate can be profitable due to leverage, due to location (near a growing city, for example), and as an inflation hedge. Residential real estate, for example, will basically track personal income over the long haul. It also has the advantage that they aren't making any more of it. I have 25 years' experience in owning small residential real estate that generated profits due to leverage and inflation protection.

Art is a speculation, though with the advantage that dead artists aren't competing with you for sales. The supply is capped but the value isn't driven by anything tangible. Same-o for baseball cards. We have some art, though not bought with any appreciation expectations. I haven't owned baseball cards since junior high.

Gold and other precious metals really don't have any of these characteristics. Gold is being mined more or less continuously to meet demand so supply (at least for the near future) is unlimited, and industrial uses AFIK do not drive its price. So we are left with speculative demand, jewelry demand and potential future scarcity as the only fundamental drivers. On the behavioral economics scene, though, gold is a bubbling vat of excitement and volatility. So we can sail in there armed with a good bag of luck (we hope!) and make money on volatility. Or not. We have some gold as jewelry but not bought with the expectation of profit.

So, yes, from 10,000 feet they are all "investments" of some sort but IMO there are important and fundamental differences. My definition of "investment" excludes items that are almost purely speculative like art and gold. Speculation can be great fun, too, and sometimes profitable but I do not consider it to be "investment." YMMV.
 
Interesting reading mathjak107 and thanks for posting. From their own research, it appears that Treasuries are better ballast than gold in most all market conditions. Adding gold may improve the ballast, but 25% seems to be excessive as for the lost opportunity in equities during the normal market cycle. Much like having an excessive cash position increases drag on returns.

Thanks for posting and the research is done by a company that is big on active investing and timing the market. They may have a system that works...

VW

VW,
Both Ray Dalio's All Weather (or All Season) Portfolio and the older Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio that are discussed in the linked article are static asset allocation models.

The core idea of these portfolios is not to try to time the market, but rather have an asset allocation that has consistent returns with low volatility in any market condition with the only regular maintenance being annual rebalancing.

Another portfolio in this genre ( AA "heavy" in gold :LOL::LOL::LOL::LOL:) is the Golden Butterfly.

I still have trouble wrapping my head around the long-term performance of these three portfolios which can be reviewed at https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolios/. Very counter-intuitive.
 
Personally I don't believe in Gold & Silver just because it's all about speculation based. Having said that I did buy some precious metals ETF at Oppenheimer just to lose money. I got rid of it and put the proceeds back into a balanced fund.
 
I've bought some gold & silver coins over the years. Once in a while I come across them while cleaning my closet. I feel the charm of gold & silver was limited to first few days/weeks, then I forgot about where I kept them. :) :)
 
VW,
Both Ray Dalio's All Weather (or All Season) Portfolio and the older Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio that are discussed in the linked article are static asset allocation models.

The core idea of these portfolios is not to try to time the market, but rather have an asset allocation that has consistent returns with low volatility in any market condition with the only regular maintenance being annual rebalancing.

Another portfolio in this genre ( AA "heavy" in gold :LOL::LOL::LOL::LOL:) is the Golden Butterfly.

I still have trouble wrapping my head around the long-term performance of these three portfolios which can be reviewed at https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolios/. Very counter-intuitive.

the butterfly was basically a model backed in to after the facts .

it was conceived to produce the best balance of risk vs reward by manipulating the data of the past .

it can actually be easy to hand tailor something to show best results looking in a mirror . but will it still do as well as rates rise and long term treasuries and gold get hit hard ?

i used it temporarily for about 6 months before and after the election when i wanted something more defensive . i wracked up nice gains with it but not a model i wanted to keep long term .
 
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VW,
Both Ray Dalio's All Weather (or All Season) Portfolio and the older Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio that are discussed in the linked article are static asset allocation models.

The core idea of these portfolios is not to try to time the market, but rather have an asset allocation that has consistent returns with low volatility in any market condition with the only regular maintenance being annual rebalancing.

Another portfolio in this genre ( AA "heavy" in gold :LOL::LOL::LOL::LOL:) is the Golden Butterfly.

I still have trouble wrapping my head around the long-term performance of these three portfolios which can be reviewed at https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolios/. Very counter-intuitive.

Thanks DrBrisket for the link. I am aware of those portfolios and your point is well taken. I still think there are better defensive investments than gold during normal market conditions. I also don't like the way the Gold Salesmen preach the end of the world is coming.

VW
 
For all's it's non-value, I wonder why there are gold mines. I mean, whenever someone sees gold, shouldn't they immediately rebury it?
 
Thanks DrBrisket for the link. I am aware of those portfolios and your point is well taken. I still think there are better defensive investments than gold during normal market conditions. I also don't like the way the Gold Salesmen preach the end of the world is coming.

VW

I am on the sidelines wrt these portfolios as I prefer income producing properties for exposure to "real assets".

With equity and debt valuations being what they are right now, definitely will be interesting to watch how these gold-laden portfolios perform for the next 5-20 years.

Gotta get back to reading Bitcoin articles... CNBC's home page currently has one article saying $11,000 BTC won't last followed by an article a few places down saying BTC will hit $1,000,000 by 2020. I sense a slight difference of opinion there as well. :facepalm:
 
... Gotta get back to reading Bitcoin articles... CNBC's home page currently has one article saying $11,000 BTC won't last followed by an article a few places down saying BTC will hit $1,000,000 by 2020. I sense a slight difference of opinion there as well. :facepalm:
It really depends on how soon they run out of fools (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory) and there is known to be a very large supply of fools worldwide. Crooks factor in as well; there is also a large worldwide supply of them
 
my recent thinking is to start rebalancing some of my equities into metals and metal funds starting next year; exactly when I'm not sure

last time I did this I made a crap ton but that was about 17 years ago
 
i did that around the election when i tried that golden butterfly and gold took off . it was a lucky call.
 
It really depends on how soon they run out of fools (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_fool_theory) and there is known to be a very large supply of fools worldwide. Crooks factor in as well; there is also a large worldwide supply of them

tulipmania-style bubbles remind me of a couple of quotes:

Don't try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top.
It can't be done except by liars.

&

Vote for the man who promises least; he'll be the least disappointing.
 

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