House Value Calculator

[twaddle]

I'm not trying to invalidate your gains. The market will take care of that.

Well, you do have a chance to make more gains in the housing market as long as there are still buyers left who think like you do. Frankly, I think you're the last housing permabull left -- practically a national treasure.

 

[honobob]

I'm not trying to invalidate your gains. The market will take care of that.

Well, you do have a chance to make more gains in the housing market as long as there are still buyers left who think like you do. Frankly, I think you're the last housing permabull left -- practically a national treasure.

Then why don't you put up or shut up? Or at least confine you remarks to the FAQ.

 

[twaddle]

Don't be mad. I did call you a treasure, didn't I?

Maybe you can find a way to sell your houses to yourself in order to keep prices high. You know, sort of how the wall street guys "paint the tape." I think it would be more effective than your one-man crusade to rally the market based on talk of your unrealized gains.

 

[honobob]

Don't be mad. I did call you a treasure, didn't I?

Maybe you can find a way to sell your houses to yourself in order to keep prices high. You know, sort of how the wall street guys "paint the tape." I think it would be more effective than your one-man crusade to rally the market based on talk of your unrealized gains.

oh no you dint!

Still! put up or shut up! I ain't selling (why would I with 9% -11% appreciation)? Did you see Kauai up 40%?

 

[Retire Soon]

There are a lot of valuation metrics. Discounted cash flow. Price/Rent multiple. Cap rate. Price/Income multiple. Debt/income ratio. I'd be happy to see any of them make sense again.

Just for fun, here's San Diego's median home price / per capita income with a projection for how long a correction might take....

12 years to reach average valuation for San Diego sounds about right. If I remember correctly, in the last real estate bust it took about 9 years to reach average valuation in San Diego County. The current bust appears to be far worse in its intensity.

 

[honobob]

12 years to reach average valuation for San Diego sounds about right. If I remember correctly, in the last real estate bust it took about 9 years to reach average valuation in San Diego County. The current bust appears to be far worse in its intensity.

Can you define average valuation? Can you provide support for for that value? Can you provide support for your determination that "current bust appears to br far worse in its intensity"?

 

[Retire Soon]

I owned a house in San Diego County from 1987 to 2006, when we sold and moved out of state. If my memory serves me correctly, we had a major real estate correction in 1990. I believe that Median prices for single family residences did not return to Pre-1990 median prices until 1999. I could be off by a year or two. The current bust which started in approximately August, 2005 is far more severe in its scope and intensity, because banks financed homes with teaser interest rates with no down payment for anyone who had a pulse. San Diego County home prices have dropped 9.5 % in the past year. No one knows where the bottom is, but we do know it won't be anytime soon. A projection of 12 years to return to Pre-2005 San Diego County Median home prices for single family residence would be a very reasonable estimate.

 

[mexmeme]

50% Loss in 1988 in Houston after 3 years ownership

We bought later in 1997 and the house is still valued at our purchase price. The company moved us every three years and we bought each time. In hindsight it may have been better to have rented. It looks as thought we hit two bad real estate markets.