Hum, just checked my YTD return as of 6-30-19

[Texas Proud]

69% is only around 2% gain per week for 26 weeks.

I found a mix of stocks that I would be ok holding long term but also have enough volatility that the price swings 2% per week, or with some of them if the price doesn't swing that much, the deep in the money LEAP options do (which I will admit is leverage and is more risky).

If I buy 1000 shares of XYZ corp which is trading for $25 a share on Monday and on Tuesday it is trading for $25.50 and I sell it I make $500 - $6 in commissions = $494. If late afternoon Tuesday it is trading for $24.75, I might buy it again. It then falls to $24 on Wednesday because of trade war worries and I am a little sad but go get ice cream for $2.50 single scoop. I check back Thursday and the stock is back to $25 and I sell, making $250 - $6 commission = $244. Friday I take the day off and don't trade.

My weekly gain is $494 + $244 = $738. Expenses are $12 commissions and $2.50 single scoop ice cream cone.

Weekly % gain is $738/$25,000 = 2.95% and yet XYZ corp started the week at $25 and ended the week at $25.

This may sound unrealistic, simplistic, foolish and stupid but is pretty much exactly how I have creeped up on $90,000+ in realized gains and a boatload of commissions and ice cream cones.

Edit: I do have some stocks which I have had to hold for much longer in order to realize gains, but since I try to buy reasonable quality stocks with positive earnings, I don't fret too much if I have to hold them. I would miss out on a huge upturn in the market and likely get beaten by the index. In a volatile flat market though I think the strategy, while having risk, can work...or at least it is working so far. In a down market I would pretty much be in the same boat as everyone else, although not nearly diversified enough, holding about 10 to 20 stocks. Diversification is supposed to be a free lunch but is hard to do with limited funds if you are not just buying index. I have not been able to find enough volatility in index and index LEAPS though to do what I am doing, although I have tried some with SPY.

But are you doing that with 100% of your money? If so, I would never want to take that kind of risk...


I am flipping pref shares and grabbing their dividends.... Just checked and my weighted avg return is at 49%.... even calculating worst case (the most money I had invested vs income earned to date) I am 28%... but I do not invest that much money.... it is just a hobby for me... just made about $3600 YTD with an avg of less than $14K invested...


I do NOT want to put in much more than I am doing... if you are not spread out in different stocks you can get hit hard if one goes down...

 

[pompanobeach]

Mostly FANG growth fund.

 

[Surfdaddy]

It's easiest to be way up when you are less diversified.
Of course that means you are taking more risk and it is much harder to beat the averages using that same strategy over many years.

 

[NYEXPAT]

It's easiest to be way up when you are less diversified.
Of course that means you are taking more risk and it is much harder to beat the averages using that same strategy over many years.

I dunno? My Dad started as a security analyst at Moody's after WWII and went on to be VP of the first US Mutual fund (General American) before running his own money management company until about age 85. He died at age 99 with millions invested divided up amongst 6 stocks. Over the years I do not remember him having more than 20 stocks in his portfolio (and those of his clients) and 12 was probably the average. He was a value investor who sold his Berkshire shares to WB and also turned down a job offer from the same.

 

[NYEXPAT]

BTW, +15.96 YTD as of 7/13/2018.

 

[pompanobeach]

Nice!

 

[Russman]

Similar question on VWINX

I also questioned what's going on with VWINX earlier this year.
In the first week of Feb, there was a pretty big drop of 4% for that week.
And now that we're in August, ytd performance is still slightly negative. I would have thought that a balanced fund such as this would have performed better (mix of 60% bonds 40% stock). I understand
intermediate bonds didn't do that well, could have dragged it down, but I would have thought the performance of the stocks would have offset.
This last month seemed to do better, so hopefully, we end the year on the upswing.

 

[HI Bill]

I also questioned what's going on with VWINX earlier this year.
In the first week of Feb, there was a pretty big drop of 4% for that week.
And now that we're in August, ytd performance is still slightly negative. I would have thought that a balanced fund such as this would have performed better (mix of 60% bonds 40% stock). I understand
intermediate bonds didn't do that well, could have dragged it down, but I would have thought the performance of the stocks would have offset.
This last month seemed to do better, so hopefully, we end the year on the upswing.

VWINX has Conservative Allocation, with a relatively high expense ration of 0.22%, and holds almost 64% bonds. In an up market this year, my only bond fund (BND) has been consistently losing a little. The largest holdings are not FANG stocks (insteand holding JP Morgan, Verizon, J&J, Cisco, Pfizer, Suncor Energy, Chevron, Philip Morris, Intel, and DowDuPont). I used to hold both Vangard Wellesley and Windsor II, but dumped them about 10 years ago, as they were killing my returns over the long-haul. The 10-year return after taxes and distributions for VWINX is only 5.45%.

 

[cyber888]

My 401k ytd is 7.3% for 2018. In 2017, it was 18.5%

 

[gauss]

Math is hard....