ERD- What settings are you using on Firecalc?.....every time I use it I end up at 100%....and that is without putting in assets like the house. Even without my wife's small pensions at 60+66 ($1500 + $7000 yr) I get a good result.
See the links I included in post #33.
Note that I 'normalized' the withdraws/portfolio of $30K/$785K to a % of $1,000,000 - that just makes it easy to translate WR to %. $38,300/$1,000,000 = 3.83%.
I focused on the portfolio - I didn't add your SS/pension,
or the spending you say it offsets, so it
should be a wash as far as portfolio survival. Partially, I didn't follow all the details of timing and COLA, and it still is valid if that $30K inflation adjusted needs to come from the portfolio. Maybe you are entering more pension/SS than the added spending you mentioned? I don't understand those details, so you would need to post that info concisely if you want an opinion that includes that data.
You can post the links as I did - on the results page:
Link to this set of data (Right-click and either "Copy Shortcut"
to paste into an email, for example, or "Add to Favorites")
A patient of mine comes to see me. She is overweight. She needs to lose 100 pounds. I tell her she should pay attention to her weight. She comes to see me 6 months later, tells me proudly she lost 10 pounds. About 10 percent of what is needed. Well, I WILL tell her "good job, now keep doing what you have been doing". What is so "odd" about saying this?
If you prefer to use "reality", (i.e telling your patient "you are still morbidly obese") instead of encouraging using positive feedback ("good job!") and reinforcement, so be it.
Two very different things, in my view. Both your patient and the OP have made progress towards their goal, and that's good and I encourage both. But that's is not what we are discussing here.
I don't think it would be helpful if you told your patient that all was good, she doesn't need to lose any more weight, let's just be happy with where she is (90# overweight)? And I don't think it would be helpful to the OP to tell him all is good, let's just be happy with what might be an 85% success rate, and let's pretend it's much higher, just to be 'positive'?
The OP has obviously done well to be this close. What many of us are saying is that he better take a closer look at those numbers - he may not have the confidence factor he is thinking he does (devil's in the details, but better safe than sorry).
-ERD50