Please Poke Holes Through This

Almost a year since I made my OP. Since then, our NW increased by about $275k despite my lack of W2 income, and DWs expected pension went up to a little over $20k. Also since then, I've been considering other withdrawal methods. In the past, I was only considering the Trinity study type of withdrawal strategy. Now I'm seriously considering % of remaining portfolio (thanks Audrey), and maybe VPW. If using % of remaining portfolio, using 4%:

$3.49M *.04 + pension = ~$160k/yr

And considering our asset allocation of 70 equities/30 fixed income, if the market tanked by 80% tomorrow, we'd still be able to maintain our current lifestyle (that's assuming our fixed income investments would not also go down):

$1.54M * .04 + pension = ~$82k/yr.

4% of our current portfolio would give us about 63% of discretionary spending - plenty of cushion, I think. Plus, I think I built in a little more cushion because I'm calculating taxes on the entire amount even though some of the withdrawal will be principal.

And yet I still can't seem to give myself permission to feel confident. I'm not sure what it'll take.

I'm typing this in the middle of the night (can't sleep). Sorry if this post is not the most coherent.
 
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