Question about the economy, stock market, and near future

[Oz investor]

IBM are trying to buy Red Hat Linux , be happy you have escaped with your sanity intact .

expect to see IBM degenerate into the chronically ill category ( like Sears and GE )

( PS i am a Linux fan but refuse to use Red Hat since Version 7.2 .)

 

[RAE]

After 8-9 years of exceptional market performance, I think a lot of folks realize that we almost certainly had to be coming up to some tough years in the very near future. Could be a major recession coming, or not, but market performance (and valuations) cannot continue upward indefinitely. Also, the Fed used up a lot of their ammunition to deal with the last recession.......not sure if they have much left to try and mitigate the next one. Lots of serious trouble ahead in terms of debt load, trillion dollar budget deficits, etc.. Others have talked about those issues in other threads.

 

[gstillson]

! Trillion Dollars Gone. Where did it go?

U.S. Stocks Lost $1 Trillion In Less Than A Week | Time

Seriously... Where did it go?
... and did you get any of it?

I got about $5,000 of it. So essentially we really only need to account for the other $999,999,995,000

 

[Lsbcal]

If we are looking for "the" reason for recent market volatility, I would think it is primarily the trade war threat. Futures were reported to be up when the Chinese issued a positive trade statement but then the news came of a detention of the Huawei executive and futures abruptly took a dive.

I think the market does not see the resolution of this trade war. It is not just limited to goods being traded but to industrial espionage, national prestige, etc.

Let's face it, none of us have seen a real trade war in our lifetimes.

 

[haha]

Given how mall REITs are trading now, the market disagrees with you. Sears/K Mart will be gone, JC Penny will be gone, Bed Bath and Beyond is starting to close down stores, Macy's is on life support, many clothing retailers (GAP, Victoria's secret, Under Armor, have started to close stores). You need to get out more to see what's going on. There are far too many malls and far too many retail stores in this country. Here is a partial list from earlier in the year:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/mone...rs-closing-most-stores-2018-so-far/557275002/

This situation is much more dire now. Wait until January/February 2019 for more closure announcements.

I believe that this is correct. Northgate Mall, perhaps the oldest enclosed Mall in the US, is planning a renovation which will turn half of its footprint into apartment and office towers. Not sure the exact plans, but this is a Simon Mall and considered to be very well managed. My GF and I went shopping there yesterday, and there were already some sales in Nordstrom, with 2 weeks to go to Christmas.

Retail sales have to fall and stress overstored America because our native population is set to fall relentlessly. Many young people with good jobs have skipped or delayed marriage and family, and thus they stay in the city where there is a lot going on, but also where they have to spend a lot on rent or condo purchases, and this soaks up some spending on other things. When a recession comes, it will likely be ugly.

Ha

 

[Rianne]

I agree that the issues of retail now are not like 2008/09. The current issue is older big box stores not doing well, because that business is moving to Amazon etc. Sure, there will be some ripple impacts, because those stores employ staff so jobs leave with them, but it's not because consumers aren't spending retail dollars.

Axios shared this pic today - the CEO of walmart keeps this on his phone as a constant reminder that retailers come and go. A lot of those listed in this thread have slipped in recent years, but others have taken their place.

The only thing missing is the Dollar Stores.

 

[Ticker]

If we are looking for "the" reason for recent market volatility, I would think it is primarily the trade war threat. Futures were reported to be up when the Chinese issued a positive trade statement but then the news came of a detention of the Huawei executive and futures abruptly took a dive.

I think the market does not see the resolution of this trade war. It is not just limited to goods being traded but to industrial espionage, national prestige, etc.

Let's face it, none of us have seen a real trade war in our lifetimes.

I agree. I think the impact of tariffs is grossly understated. Take a look around your house, and see how much of your stuff comes from China. It's frightening.
as for industrial espionage, I blame the corporations for not taking better care of their technology. Some gave it up for greed, some neglected the security, and I resent that I have to pay more for products because they were plain lazy or greedy.

 

[razztazz]

I agree. I think the impact of tariffs is grossly understated. Take a look around your house, and see how much of your stuff comes from China. It's frightening.
as for industrial espionage, I blame the corporations for not taking better care of their technology. Some gave it up for greed, some neglected the security, and I resent that I have to pay more for products because they were plain lazy or greedy.

... and some gave it up because they think "the Government should protect them." Historically, most of the times we've talked about the military "protecting American interests" that was usually an idiom for "Business Interests". Free stuff & profits.

 

[kgtest]

WWIII Fears? Robo-trading. GDP, inflation, wage stagnation?

I've been hearing more and more about layoffs. Especially this December.

On the flip side, damn the freeway's are mighty congested this time of year.

 

[kgtest]

Sure, overseas seems to be a mess, but so what?

That's the question: So what?

WWIII Fears? Robo-trading. GDP, inflation, wage stagnation? Missing wall st expectations.

I've been hearing more and more about layoffs. Especially this December.

On the flip side, damn the freeway's are mighty congested this time of year.

 

[Seagirt]

After 8-9 years of exceptional market performance, I think a lot of folks realize that we almost certainly had to be coming up to some tough years in the very near future. Could be a major recession coming, or not, but market performance (and valuations) cannot continue upward indefinitely. Also, the Fed used up a lot of their ammunition to deal with the last recession.......not sure if they have much left to try and mitigate the next one. Lots of serious trouble ahead in terms of debt load, trillion dollar budget deficits, etc.. Others have talked about those issues in other threads.

I agree, people instinctively know everything is a cycle: night follows day, the tides go in and out, the seasons go round. This stock market cycle is due for a turnaround, so investors are getting anxious. They're not so much looking for trends in the real world as much as trends in the market itself, trying to be ahead of everyone else if it starts to fall.

 

[Dtail]

I agree, people instinctively know everything is a cycle: night follows day, the tides go in and out, the seasons go round. This stock market cycle is due for a turnaround, so investors are getting anxious. They're not so much looking for trends in the real world as much as trends in the market itself, trying to be ahead of everyone else if it starts to fall.

So let's get to a short lived bear market (hopefully) and then we can get this negativity aspect out of it. The longest running bull market statement appears to affect any attempt for a positive movement.

 

[NYEXPAT]

Ned Davis research pointed out today that "Bear Markets" that occur without being followed by recession typically last 7 months and only go down a little more than 20%.

 

[Rianne]

"Six o'clock, T.V. hour, don't get caught in foreign tower
Slash and burn, return, listen to yourself churn
Lock him in uniform, book burning, bloodletting
Every motive escalate, automotive incinerate
Light a candle, light a motive, step down, step down
Watch your heel crush, crush, uh oh
This means no fear, cavalier, renegade and steering clear
A tournament, a tournament, a tournament of lies
Offer me solutions, offer me alternatives and I decline


It's the end of the world as we know it (I had some time alone)
It's the end of the world as we know it (I had some time alone)
It's the end of the world as we know it and I feel fine (time I had some time alone)
I feel fine (I feel fine)"


R.E.M.

 

[NYEXPAT]

Oh, life is bigger
It's bigger
Than you and you are not me
The lengths that I will go to
The distance in your eyes
Oh no, I've said too much
I set it up
That's me in the corner
That's me in the spotlight
Losing my religion
Trying to keep up with you
And I don't know if I can do it
Oh no, I've said too much
I haven't said enough
I thought that I heard you laughing
I thought that I heard you sing
I think I thought I saw you try
Every whisper
Of every waking hour
I'm choosing my confessions
Trying to keep an eye on you
Like a hurt lost and blinded fool, fool
Oh no, I've said too much
I set it up
Consider this
Consider this
The hint of the century
Consider this
The slip that brought me
To my knees failed
What if all these fantasies
Come flailing around
Now I've said too much
I thought that I heard you laughing
I thought that I heard you sing
I think I thought I saw you try
But that was just a dream
That was just a dream
That's me in the corner
That's me in the spotlight
Losing my religion
Trying to keep up with you
And I don't know if I can do it
Oh no, I've said too much
I haven't said enough
I thought that I heard you laughing
I thought that I heard you sing
I think I thought I saw you try
But that was just a dream
Try, cry
Why try?
That was just a dream, just a dream, just a dream
Dream
Songwriters: Bill Berry / Michael Stipe / Mike Mills / Peter Buck
Losing My Religion lyrics © Warner/Chappell Music, Inc, Universal Music Publishing Group

 

[Rianne]

Oh, life is bigger
It's bigger
Than you and you are not me
The lengths that I will go to
The distance in your eyes
Oh no, I've said too much
I set it up
That's me in the corner
That's me in the spotlight
Losing my religion
Trying to keep up with you
And I don't know if I can do it
Oh no, I've said too much
I haven't said enough
I thought that I heard you laughing
I thought that I heard you sing
I think I thought I saw you try
Every whisper
Of every waking hour
I'm choosing my confessions
Trying to keep an eye on you
Like a hurt lost and blinded fool, fool
Oh no, I've said too much
I set it up
Consider this
Consider this
The hint of the century
Consider this
The slip that brought me
To my knees failed
What if all these fantasies
Come flailing around
Now I've said too much
I thought that I heard you laughing
I thought that I heard you sing
I think I thought I saw you try
But that was just a dream
That was just a dream
That's me in the corner
That's me in the spotlight
Losing my religion
Trying to keep up with you
And I don't know if I can do it
Oh no, I've said too much
I haven't said enough
I thought that I heard you laughing
I thought that I heard you sing
I think I thought I saw you try
But that was just a dream
Try, cry
Why try?
That was just a dream, just a dream, just a dream
Dream
Songwriters: Bill Berry / Michael Stipe / Mike Mills / Peter Buck
Losing My Religion lyrics © Warner/Chappell Music, Inc, Universal Music Publishing Group

Love that song. I worked for the Catholic Church for 9 years. This was my mantra after knowing what goes on behind closed doors.

 

[Amethyst]

I just realized that I can't relate to your analogy at all, b/c I have never seen any of these shows - although I recognize the names as TV characters.

The economy and the stock market are not Zach & Cody or The Olsen Twins. They're more Chip & Ernie or Jethro ad Ellie Mae.

.

 

[razztazz]

I just realized that I can't relate to your analogy at all, b/c I have never seen any of these shows - although I recognize the names as TV characters.

HA, you must be in an odd demographic. Too old to know Zach & Cody but too young to remember Chip & Ernie. Jethro and Ellie Mae have been in continuous reruns for almost 50 yrs tho. Surely you know who they are?

 

[Lsbcal]

HA, you must be in an odd demographic. Too old to know Zach & Cody but too young to remember Chip & Ernie. Jethro and Ellie Mae have been in continuous reruns for almost 50 yrs tho. Surely you know who they are?

I'm in the same boat as Amethyst. We watch very little TV that includes advertising.

 

[NYEXPAT]

Love that song. I worked for the Catholic Church for 9 years. This was my mantra after knowing what goes on behind closed doors.

It's about being "fed up" with "unrequited love". I suppose it could be used for one's Job, or in this case "the economy,stock market, and near future!

 

[happy2bretired]

I agree that the issues of retail now are not like 2008/09. The current issue is older big box stores not doing well, because that business is moving to Amazon etc. Sure, there will be some ripple impacts, because those stores employ staff so jobs leave with them, but it's not because consumers aren't spending retail dollars.



Axios shared this pic today - the CEO of walmart keeps this on his phone as a constant reminder that retailers come and go. A lot of those listed in this thread have slipped in recent years, but others have taken their place.

I like that picture from Axios. It looks like the stores that didn’t adapt to the new world eventually were left behind. Walmart really has adapted over time.

 

[Rickt]

On the flip side, damn the freeway's are mighty congested this time of year.

+1 . Noticed that as well.....makes me wonder if there are more shoppers or travelers?

 

[NYEXPAT]

I like that picture from Axios. It looks like the stores that didn’t adapt to the new world eventually were left behind. Walmart really has adapted over time.

Yes ,they have! Let's see what happens when Amazon buys out Target!