Signs of Recession or More Noise?

[NW-Bound]

The autonomous trucks in the above videos still require a driver to monitor and take over if necessary. It reduces his fatigue and is helpful, but eliminating the driver altogether will take some time for technology to mature and to build confidence. I would not know how to place a bet on when that happens.

 

[marko]

J B Hunt just reported in their conf call that the headline trucking downturn is much overstated.

 

[joeea]

Are you suggesting that shipping offices didn't optimize vehicle routes prior to GPS et

Shipping offices didn't optimize *robot* vehicle routes prior to GPS, etc. Computers will do that, not shipping clerks.

We might be saying the same thing actually--- there will be new skills for employment but its the same function just done diffrantly.

Yes. And fewer human drivers.

The former shipping clerk, would write up the route using knowledge available on roads etc. The new tech is someone writing a program that taps into GPS data etc. Wheres the difference--- its a the old time shipping office vs the new time programmer. Still a job, still working to the same end and that is getting the product to the destination.

Different skills, different capabilities, perhaps not the same individuals.

My mechanic was certified in +30 areas of repair. He was also working on electric vehicle certs when we moved here.

Mechanic-- gas and diesel
Mechanic-- electric.

Same guy, he just moved into new fields.

Yup. Some can do that, others aren't capable or aren't willing.

Onaway Michigan, in the early 1900s was the largest producer of wheels for buggys and cars. Evenutally they got out of the buggy business and stuck with cars. Same company, same people, same hard maple.

Some companies. Sometimes. Others just go out out business.

I am not certain that tech creates jobs, it just replaces similar/older functions with the modern equivilant.

Lots of jobs today are due to tech, with no direct prior equivalent.

Change is disruptive. Some people and companies can adapt and thrive. Others cannot. The companies go out of business. The people find other professions.

It's more important than ever to be a lifelong learner. So it goes.

 

[Running_Man]

In contrast with the Dow Jones Transport, the Baltic Dry Index is at an all-time high.

I think not in May of 2008, it hit it's all time high above 11,000, it is a multi-year high at 1928 today.

On March 1, 2018, the BDI was changed from an equal-weight index for cape-size, panamax, supramax and handysize to a weighting of 40% on cape-size and 30% on each of the panamax and supramax time charter averages, and no longer including the handysize time charter average.

During April 2019, the BDI was dominated by cape-size shipping, which pushed the index up by 50% on the back of a 239% increase in rates for capsizes – from a very low level – whereas the three other segments only rose slightly or decreased.

The 239% hike in cape-size rates single handedly lifted the BDI from 674 points on 2 April to 1,011 points on 30 April, when panama rates only rose 6% during the same period while supramax and handy-size rates fell by 4% and 15% respectively.

 

[aja8888]

Exactly.

In the late 90's tech companies were taking anyone who showed a bit of aptitude and trained them for computer jobs, and paid pretty well. That's how they filled the jobs.

-ERD50

Isn't this why we got saddled with tons of retail software that was junk and buggy during that time?

At least they weren't driving over the road trucks and causing accidents.

 

[ERD50]

ERD50--- not saying that they can't support the dividend. I am asking what would be the result if they cut the dividend to pay the truckers more to get more truckers available? It would still be the same result on the bottom line.

And the earlier posts were regarding paying the truckers more-- to help reduce the apparent shortage of drivers. That's more the direction I was hoping to be addressing. Probably didn't do it well.

But again, this just isn't the way business works.

The trucking business would be paying the drivers more with the intent of improving business. The plan would be: we pay more, we attract more drivers, we can ship more, we can make more, we can maintain or maybe increase dividends/stock price.

They would not pay more and just take it from dividends and shrug their shoulders. Why do that?

Now, if they have to pay more, say, just to stay even, and they can't recoup all of that in new business, then their profits drop. That might bring about a drop in dividends and/or stock price.

It's profits that drives divs/stock price. Investment and costs can drive profits. But you can't skip the middle part. The decision to increase (or not increase) driver compensation should be based on what it can do for profits. You don't just rob Peter to pay Paul.

Originally Posted by ERD50 View Post
Exactly.

In the late 90's tech companies were taking anyone who showed a bit of aptitude and trained them for computer jobs, and paid pretty well. That's how they filled the jobs.

-ERD50

Isn't this why we got saddled with tons of retail software that was junk and buggy during that time?

At least they weren't driving over the road trucks and causing accidents.

Well, the ones I was familiar with were in sys-admin/maintenance positions, not development.

But that probably did play a role in some of the buggy software we have seen. But that's what happens when there is a shortage of workers to fill a position. They raise pay, they lower standards to get more workers. It's the way it is.

-ERD50

 

[joeea]

Isn't this why we got saddled with tons of retail software that was junk and buggy during that time?

No.

The quality of the software at the time was more related to what consumers were willing to accept.

 

[stevede]

Trucking industry downturn?

I retired several years ago but still work part-time for a vehicle transport company, so I spend a fair amount of time traveling on interstates. I've heard the same report of freight deliveries being down from various news sources.
However, my experience is that I've never seen truck stops and highways so crowded will trucks which seems to contradict the reports of slowing freight deliveries.