Worst year ever for the S&P....

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by ERD50
Not sure why you see it as arguing, I'm just trying to understand what it is you are proposing. Once I understand it, if it sounds good, I may want to follow your lead.

Plan, schman--just made a comment re figuring out when one might want to consider cutting one's losses in advance. Sorry.

Standing by the comment re arguing....

Originally Posted by Bestwifeever
I think planning in advance when you might want to cut your losses is as important as planning your asset allocation.

OK, now I'm *really* confused. You used the word "planning" in your comment, so I thought this had something to do with your.... plan.

I still don't see where I'm arguing (other than I'm now arguing about whether I'm arguing ).

OK, I see REWahoo just asked the same question I was going to get to. Without that, there is really no discussion, or anything to learn from. So just like stop losses, I'm trying to understand how/if this idea of "cutting your losses" can help.

thanks - ERD50

 

[Lsbcal]

I've read through a lot of the angst above and see myself in a lot of those posts. What I've done recently:

1) Came up with a plan that's right for me going forward. That included reviewing FIRECalc simulations and how markets behaived in past nasty downturns (1930's and 1966-82). Mostly I just made several minor moves to tax loss harvest and get the cash flow picture right.
2) Took my wife out to lunch at a fast food restaurant on Thursday to celibrate Wedneday's new low for the market and our portfolio. She doesn't really like seeing me morose about stocks. She appreciated the humor and asked if we could do it again after the Thursday's awful close. I told her that was going a little too far .
3) Kept up my exercise program and have thrown in some extra work around the house to give me something I could do instead of kicking myself over something I have no control over.
4) Pet the dog when I need some extra comfort. He's also getting extra walks.

 

[Moemg]

Good Plan

I'm concentrating on the holidays and ignoring the market till Jan.2 .

 

[unclemick]

Yeah, those target funds haven't gone down one bit

Whoopeee - I've beaten what my Vanguard calculator says is the worst historical case for my portfolio -31.93 % vs - 29.1% in 1931.

Eh ah hmmm - soo maybe I don't win anything. Perhaps I should go easy on looking till after 12/31.

I see to remember a -16.5% one quarter back in the 02/3 time period.

heh heh heh - At least when I was a kid and had to go to the dentist - I got a lolipop.

 

[2B]

heh heh heh - At least when I was a kid and had to go to the dentist - I got a lolipop.

Now you get to go to a proctologist.

 

[Lsbcal]

...heh heh heh - At least when I was a kid and had to go to the dentist - I got a lolipop.

Mick, I'm sure you can still afford one in each of your favorite flavors.

 

[Meadbh]

Reversion to the mean

"Reversion to the mean, also called regression to the mean, is the statistical phenomenon stating that the greater the deviation of a random variate from its mean, the greater the probability that the next measured variate will deviate less far. In other words, an extreme event is likely to be followed by a less extreme event."

I sure hope so!
Of course, it depends what you mean by "mean".