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Old 05-25-2020, 05:41 PM   #21
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Thanks everyone for the comments & advice!

I goofed terribly with the Firecalc entries for SS and pension. Appreciate the corrections. Also appreciate driving home the point that Firecalc is not a forecasting tool which is easy to forget.

My pension is PBGC managed (single-employer program) since an earlier company I worked for went into bankruptcy. I understand that the PBGC single-employer programs are more financially secure compared to their multi-employer programs (unions), but there is still a risk that the PBGC will fail to meet my pension obligations. And likewise SS could get cut. I am depending on both SS & the PBGC pension being there in 11 years.

The $25k annual expenses is correct and does include taxes on the $20k/annual income + subsidized ACA costs. Since ACA subsidies could change, I was budgeting $30k annually to account for any changes there, or other unexpected expenses, but not both scenarios.

In terms of major expenses:
  • Housing: the housing situation is somewhat convoluted and unique -- which is why I didn't mention it -- but it is accounted for.
  • Health care: am in very good health right now; ACA will remain a huge financial concern.
  • Auto: I own a 2016 Toyota 4Runner with only 22k miles and plan to replace it in 12-15 years unless it is still running fine (a friend has a 2008 model with 240k miles still running strong).
I have no debt; everything is paid in full.

Yes, my 31/69 (stock/cash) portfolio is far too weighted in cash and is at risk of inflation. I'm risk adverse but need better plans for growth.

Although it may sound like I am going to retire first thing Tuesday morning -- and it is tempting -- my intention is to stay put until shown the door. This is likely coming as soon as this year given the set of circumstances at work.

The advice given has helped me see some weakness in my financial position & planning, so thank you. I have much yet to learn....
When did you set up your Roth account and are you familiar with the Roth rules if you use it before age 59.5?
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Old 05-25-2020, 07:19 PM   #22
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From most of my career being involved in planning and managing large projects I know that any attempt to develop cost estimates strictly by detailed enumeration is doomed. It is impossible to identify and exactly predict everything that will happen in the future. So I advise my SCORE mentees and (formerly) project management students to have a budget line titled "ASIF." This stands for "Aw-S#its and I-Forgots." Depending on the project ASIF might be 20-30% of the total.
In my consulting field, we either call these costs "Contingency", or just bury them in the estimate. We have to competetively bid most of our work, and Contingency can't be included, generally, either obviously or not. We lose bids all the time, the 10-30% contingency kills a bidder's chances. I've found that when preparing estimates, the most detailed estimates are the most accurate. If one bids with no contingency, then the project manager has to run a really tight project, and change management becomes of paramount importance. Jeez, I'm glad I'm almost RE and won't have to deal with this much longer!
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Old 05-25-2020, 07:26 PM   #23
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Housing: the housing situation is somewhat convoluted and unique -- which is why I didn't mention it -- but it is accounted for.
Not knowing the details, 'convoluted and unique' sounds 'risky' to me. If there is a realistic possibility that you could be evicted, lose your place, etc., then THAT needs to be included in your budget. If you own your place outright and have tenants that could leave, then THAT needs to be included in your budget. Most of us here plan for most of the foreseeable 'what-ifs'. It's more costly, but safer over the long-run. From the very limited information you've provided, your three largest risks include:
  1. Housing
  2. Health Care
  3. Inflation risk due to overly 'conservative' AA.

Best wishes!
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Old 05-25-2020, 07:29 PM   #24
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It's always been my contention that anyone who has $1M should be able to retire - simply a matter of adjusting your lifestyle to how much you've saved.
IMO, it depends.... Of course lifestyles matter "a lot". From my POV, at this point in time, 1m may be enough to safely retire on if you are ~70 with no debt and are okay with a simple lifestyle but probably not if you are ~50 even without debt, regardless of lifestyle choice. Too many unknowns in the next 20 and even more so out to 40 years to be reasonably safe. Health, (especially inflation), taxes, markets, etc, etc... Adding SS sure helps and a pension could make all the difference depending on the amount.

I'm also not sure how easy it would be for many to adjust their lifestyle at 50 if they have been living "well" in the past. So it depends....(IMO)
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Old 05-25-2020, 08:47 PM   #25
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Not knowing the details, 'convoluted and unique' sounds 'risky' to me. If there is a realistic possibility that you could be evicted, lose your place, etc., then THAT needs to be included in your budget. If you own your place outright and have tenants that could leave, then THAT needs to be included in your budget. Most of us here plan for most of the foreseeable 'what-ifs'. It's more costly, but safer over the long-run. From the very limited information you've provided, your three largest risks include:
  1. Housing
  2. Health Care
  3. Inflation risk due to overly 'conservative' AA.

Best wishes!
A couple thoughts.

First, the OP seems to me to be on top of things and is quite sure about the $25k of spending.... and has even thought through the PBGC guarantee of his pension. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt that he can resonably assess the risk inherent in his convoluted and unique housing arrangement.

Second, assuming that the pension is money good and SS, he could spend up to $55k a year with 100% success according to FIRECalc.... so assuming hs $25k is solid that leaves $30k a year to address the housing and health care risks above. The inflation risk is covered off because he input only 31% stocks in FIRECalc.

So for any reasonable scenario he is in good shape. Now if his pension goes kaput and the PBGC fails and SS is haircut and his convoluted and unique housing arrangement blows up and ACA is overturned and some draconian plan put in its place then he'll be hurting... but he'll still be in better shape than the vast majority of people out there who will also be in a world of hurt.
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Old 05-25-2020, 08:51 PM   #26
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..... The $25k annual expenses is correct and does include taxes on the $20k/annual income + subsidized ACA costs. Since ACA subsidies could change, I was budgeting $30k annually to account for any changes there, or other unexpected expenses, but not both scenarios. ...
What is your current level of spending? Say, for 2019?
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Old 05-25-2020, 11:35 PM   #27
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The other thing I have told people for years is this: "I have never gotten to the end of a project, looked back, and said: 'Gee, we planned that too carefully.' "

The main reasons most large projects failed at my last megacorp job, and few went in smoothly, were simply overly optimistic budget and time estimates.
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Old 05-26-2020, 12:17 AM   #28
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Thanks everyone for the comments & advice!

The $25k annual expenses is correct and does include taxes on the $20k/annual income + subsidized ACA costs. Since ACA subsidies could change, I was budgeting $30k annually to account for any changes there, or other unexpected expenses, but not both scenarios.
Your numbers look good given your inputs and expenses. But don't marry or partner up with someone who brings no assets or income and wants to live on more than $55k/year. Stranger things have happened.
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Old 05-26-2020, 08:13 AM   #29
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Based on the numbers provided, as others have said, you look like you’re in good shape. That said, your budget is pretty minimal. There are some great threads here on finding those ‘what did I miss’ items that often get overlooked if you’re not tracking expenses for a long time. Dental is the one we forgot about. It’s worth digging around just to make sure there’s nothing you’re missing, though I agree with pb4uski, you have room for a decent margin of error.
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Old 05-26-2020, 08:30 AM   #30
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So for any reasonable scenario he is in good shape. Now if his pension goes kaput and the PBGC fails and SS is haircut and his convoluted and unique housing arrangement blows up and ACA is overturned and some draconian plan put in its place then he'll be hurting... but he'll still be in better shape than the vast majority of people out there who will also be in a world of hurt.
...and the Covid pandemic creates a worldwide economic crash and we all go back to gardening for our food and learning to live without A/C or heat and using candles at night, and healthcare is a luxury, and 8 people (family) live in a 2 bedroom house...hey wait a minute...my mom grew up on that scenario.
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Old 05-26-2020, 08:37 AM   #31
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In my consulting field, we either call these costs "Contingency", or just bury them in the estimate. We have to competetively bid most of our work, and Contingency can't be included, generally, either obviously or not. We lose bids all the time, the 10-30% contingency kills a bidder's chances. I've found that when preparing estimates, the most detailed estimates are the most accurate. If one bids with no contingency, then the project manager has to run a really tight project, and change management becomes of paramount importance. Jeez, I'm glad I'm almost RE and won't have to deal with this much longer!
Yes. "Contingency" is a good camouflage word for sure. The technique you describe is often called "bid to win and get well on the change orders." Unfortunately that is not really an option in retirement planning.

Years ago I was bidding a big project and I had a few-million $$ task assigned to a team member. I kept asking them for their cost estimates and they kept asking me what number I wanted. Younger and more naive, it took me a while to figure out their bid strategy. We didn't win the job and in some respects I was glad. Managing that subcontract would have been a nightmare.
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Old 05-26-2020, 08:41 AM   #32
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Originally Posted by daylatedollarshort View Post
The main reasons most large projects failed at my last megacorp job, and few went in smoothly, were simply overly optimistic budget and time estimates.
So it is everywhere. Enumerations just does not get you there and "overly optimistic" is only detectable in the rear view mirror. Daniel Kahneman, in "Thinking Fast and Slow" has some very insightful material on behavioral aspects of project estimating and project management.
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Old 05-26-2020, 11:58 AM   #33
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Hi everyone, my account was preventing me from replying until now.

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When did you set up your Roth account and are you familiar with the Roth rules if you use it before age 59.5?
I haven't set up a Roth IRA yet: I was planning to do that once I FIRE and then do conversions from my Traditional IRA --> Roth IRA to generate $20k ordinary income to qualify for ACA subsidies.

(A question was raised about being more aggressive in the conversion to Roth IRA, so that is something I'd have to think about once the time came.)

I need to look more into the benefits of starting a Roth IRA now, rather than later, along with better understanding the distribution rules. But this year my income will -- unexpectedly -- exceed the max $137k for a single person, so I don't think I can fund it outright AFAIK apart from doing a conversion.

Responding to others & raising a new point:

Housing (contingencies):

Yes, point taken. This is a known risk that I should have mentioned. Worst case I'll need to take money to buy a place (less than $200k should be sufficient), or else rent, but I'm good where I'm at for at least the next 10 years and possibly indefinitely (time will tell).

Although this changes as people age, I've always done my own maintenance when I've owned houses in the past, and continue to do maintenance on the small cabin in which I now live.

Rough Spending Plan:

This is what I was thinking, so is this naive or too simplistic?

Ages 51-61:

Spend up to $30k annually, so up to $330k of the $1.2M savings, leaving around $870k by age 62 (realizing that the $870k would be impacted by inflation & market by that time so would be worth whatever it is worth then).

One risk is depending on ACA subsidies to continue, or to be replaced with something that is affordable.

Ages 62-65:

Start receiving SS and the PBGC pension at $41.8k/year along with whatever the $870k is worth. Unless things change drastically - such as needing to take $200k to buy a house - the $41.8k/year should continue cover expenses, probably even if I had to rent.

Ages 65+:

Start Medicare, continue collecting $41.8k/year from SS and the PBGC pension, along with whatever remains from the $870k.

SS & Disability:

I don't remember reading about this on this forum? Maybe it is common knowledge.

If I should become disabled right now, the SS website says that I would be eligible for $3136/month payments.

I didn't know that SS disability eligibility could change once you stop working. From the SS website:

In addition to meeting our definition of disability, you must have worked long enough — and recently enough — under Social Security to qualify for disability benefits.

..etc.etc..

Remember that whatever your age, you must have earned the required number of work credits within a certain period ending with the time you become disabled. If you qualify now but you stop working under Social Security, you may not continue to meet the disability work requirement in the future.

https://www.ssa.gov/planners/disability/qualify.html

So if I generate $20k income a year (from dividends + conversions to a Roth IRA) then when I file my taxes, I would have to pay the FICA tax, right? Continuing to pay FICA on $20k income should keep me eligible for SS disability over the next number of years it seems.

Thanks
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Old 05-26-2020, 12:17 PM   #34
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...So if I generate $20k income a year (from dividends + conversions to a Roth IRA) then when I file my taxes, I would have to pay the FICA tax, right? Continuing to pay FICA on $20k income should keep me eligible for SS disability over the next number of years it seems.

Thanks
No, you only have to pay FICA taxes on earnings and self-employment income.... not on dividends or Roth conversions.

$20k of income that is $7k of dividends and $13k of Roth conversions would have negligible taxes... 0% on dividends and 10% on any Roth conversions that exceed the standard deduction of $12,400 (in 2020).... so ~$60 by my calculations. Surprise! Welcome to early retirement.

If it were me I would at least do Roth conversions to the top of the 10% tax bracket... so $7k of dividends and $15,275 of Roth conversions.... that would be $22,275 of total income and $9,875 of taxable income... and $7,000 at 0% and $2,875 at 10% for a total tax bill of $288. So on $15,275 of conversions you only pay $288 (1.9%) in tax. Cool, eh?

Alternatively, you could do Roth conversions to the top of the 0% capital gains bracket or $40,000. In that case your Roth conversion would be $45,400 and your tax bill would be $3,903... $2,875 at 10% and $30,125 at 12%.... or a modest 8.6% of the Roth conversion.

How much did you build in for income taxes in your $25k of expenses?
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Old 05-26-2020, 01:24 PM   #35
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I assume you would just use your money market account until age 59.5 out of the 1.2m you mentioned, although you can possibly use your 401k account without penalty.
Just easier to use your mm accounts, although would need to monitor changes in your AA if the Roth conversions are put into stocks.
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Old 05-26-2020, 02:18 PM   #36
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OP: I am not commenting on your plan. It may be adequately conservative, but you'd better make sure! FIRECalc is not a forecasting tool.
Hey OldShooter-
I think I know what you meant here. But FIRECALC is in fact a forecasting tool. But it does not contemplate all possible future results, and as you have stated it does not predict the future, not does it assure you will not run out of money.

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Old 05-26-2020, 02:58 PM   #37
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Hey OldShooter-
I think I know what you meant here. But FIRECALC is in fact a forecasting tool. But it does not contemplate all possible future results, and as you have stated it does not predict the future, not does it assure you will not run out of money.

Well, I guess its in the eye of the beholder. Any sort of inductive reasoning is based on the premise that the future will be (at least to some degree) like the past. That premise is the forecast. The rest, Firecalc, etc. is just filling in details. To the extent that the forecast is wrong, those details will be wrong too.

We live most of our lives by inductive reasoning because we have no choice. But there is a concept in risk management called "normalization of risk." It happens when we have tolerated a risk so frequently that we forget it is a risk. It is normal. Hence our comfort with inductive reasoning.

I'll bet you can guess who this inductive reasoner was: ... in all my experience, I have never been in any accident of any sort worth speaking about. I have seen but one vessel in distress in all my years at sea. I never saw a wreck and never have been wrecked nor was I ever in any predicament that threatened to end in disaster of any sort.

In the case of the OP here, my gut says his planning numbers are based on a risky sense of inflation, that history from the last 20-30 years of inflation applies, about 2.7% IIRC. Over 100 years the number is like 3.11% and if you begin your averaging in the late 1970s, that 2.7% becomes well over 4%. At just 3% inflation over his 14 years to 65, a dollar will be down to about 65 cents of purchasing power.
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Old 05-26-2020, 05:56 PM   #38
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.... In the case of the OP here, my gut says his planning numbers are based on a risky sense of inflation, that history from the last 20-30 years of inflation applies, about 2.7% IIRC. Over 100 years the number is like 3.11% and if you begin your averaging in the late 1970s, that 2.7% becomes well over 4%. At just 3% inflation over his 14 years to 65, a dollar will be down to about 65 cents of purchasing power.
But if he is uncomfortable with that risk it is very easy to mitigate with TIPS or a rising equity glidepath, et al.

Besides, the FIRECalc run is based on only 31% equities and he has lots of redundancy.
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Old 05-26-2020, 07:19 PM   #39
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So it is everywhere. Enumerations just does not get you there and "overly optimistic" is only detectable in the rear view mirror. Daniel Kahneman, in "Thinking Fast and Slow" has some very insightful material on behavioral aspects of project estimating and project management.

I didn't do that on my projects. Maybe I'm just not an optimist, but it wasn't too hard to put projects in on time and on budget if the initial estimates weren't unrealistic. I wanted to spend my weekends outside, not working overtime to meet some unrealistic deadlines in a dreary office building.
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Old 05-26-2020, 07:31 PM   #40
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No, you only have to pay FICA taxes on earnings and self-employment income.... not on dividends or Roth conversions.

$20k of income that is $7k of dividends and $13k of Roth conversions would have negligible taxes... 0% on dividends and 10% on any Roth conversions that exceed the standard deduction of $12,400 (in 2020).... so ~$60 by my calculations. Surprise! Welcome to early retirement.


...snip...

How much did you build in for income taxes in your $25k of expenses?
Ah, didn't know that.

I used an online calculator which was estimating $2477 in income taxes on the $20k income: $780 federal, $167 state, $1530 FICA. I was accounting for the $2477 taxes within my $25k/annual expenses, but now realize that was a mistake, so this frees up quite a bit of cash.

I was hoping to be able to pay FICA in order to maintain SS disability eligibility.

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... snip ...

In the case of the OP here, my gut says his planning numbers are based on a risky sense of inflation, that history from the last 20-30 years of inflation applies, about 2.7% IIRC. Over 100 years the number is like 3.11% and if you begin your averaging in the late 1970s, that 2.7% becomes well over 4%. At just 3% inflation over his 14 years to 65, a dollar will be down to about 65 cents of purchasing power.
That's scary. Thanks for the dose of reality.

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But if he is uncomfortable with that risk it is very easy to mitigate with TIPS or a rising equity glidepath, et al.

Besides, the FIRECalc run is based on only 31% equities and he has lots of redundancy.
This is interesting. Just read some things about TIPS, and will read more on the rising equity glidepath.
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