Originally Posted by RetireSoon
Seems tight. If you are at 50% equities on 1.4 Mil, pulling 4% (a bit high but using historical averages), that's 56K per year - assuming the market cooperates and you don't hit a bad sequence of returns period. You could burn down your cash to fund the other 40K/year needed and that'll get you 35 years without inflation..but what about inflation and unpredictable HC costs?
PS: do you include inflation in your spreadsheets? I did, and our 80K estimated annual expenses this year increases at a rather frightening and sobering pace, even at 2% Annual.
I think the above reply missed the $1.4 mil in tax-deferred, and your $150K in cash. Your assets are double what Retire Soon noticed. It really isn't that tight when you take that into account. It is worthwhile looking at your taxes for the next couple of years--beyond that politics come into play and becomes unpredictable. If your AGI puts you in the 15% tax bracket, your federal taxes will be tiny, as long term cap gains and dividends will be taxed at 0%.
Mostly I think you should be good as well as the first post after yours. My taxable and tax-deferred are different but my total is identical to yours. Firecalc and other retirement calculators put me at 100% at a spending level until I hit $125K/yr. Other calculators indicate the same.
Health insurance is a huge problem-it is a giant question mark because of politics and ridiculous costs, over which we as individuals have little control. Think about waiting a few months and seeing which way the political winds blow, and have a backup plan for health insurance-moving to a state or country where your ability to get health insurance is not hindered by price or pre-existing conditions., working to pay the premiums, whatever you can live with. Also, don't trust your Social Security projections, as your SS will be less because of less years contributing.
Whatever happens politically, the next couple of years are not likely to change much in terms of health insurance. Figure out if you can keep your MAGI under the magic number for getting subsidies, as it is a five figure difference in what you have to pay. For you, a I think it might be doable.
My advice-sleep on this a couple of months and come up with a plan B for health care. I'm having second thoughts myself due to health care and I retired last July.
BTW except for health insurance uncertainty, ER is wonderful. And isn't it crazy that those of us in the top 10% of assets in this country, are worried about going broke if we retire in our 50s as opposed to age 65 due to the cost of health care? Good luck with your decision.