About to RE! :-)

[justin]

Quote:

Originally Posted by poyet That's the kind of return I get on my trading account which NAV is a very tiny percentage of my total net worth. The method & system are described @ http://tradingautomation.blogspot.com/ Last pick by the expert-system this morning (good or bad ?) "Proton Energy System", DESC purchased Mkt Open @ 6.01. Cheers, Patrice.

Wow. Good pick. DESC is up 11% today.

Don't know how you did it.

One question (or maybe criticism) of the returns data you posted on your blog.

You posted on your blog that the system you have developed "returned" 38% annually on QQQQ over the 95-04 period, yet only 25% annually from 90-04. This means that the returns from 90-94 were an average of 2.56% annually. Other examples you cited showed similar poor performance in the 90-94 period.

Was there a reason for this?

I'm assuming you developed the models based on backtesting old market data to generate these high returns? Was any serious money invested using these systems over the last 10-15 years?

[poyet]

Justin, thanks for reading the blog. You have three questions.

1) How did I do it. The answer is having the expert-system scanning the entire market, and applying technical analysis "open rules" that state that statistically a security showing "DESC" pattern(s) has good chances to follow its bull run (there were other open trades, but my risk parameters on my account did only enable for one pick on that day). It could have been down -11% for the day (it went -5% in the hour following the open), I would not have move one eyebrow as the stop is a bit further away (given the volat of that stock). I prefer it +11% - sure - but let's give it some time, when it'll be up 107% as dobson communications I got in on 06/14 @ 3.30, I'll say good pick :-)

2) As you say in the US, no parking - no business. On the blog I said no trend no return. The period 90-94 shows some trend but not enough for a trend following system like mine to make big money. Well, do not lose either which is not bad as it is whipsawed quite some time. The system needs trend, up or down, but some good trend to leverage and get those high returns.

3) The system took three great years to develop, of design, programming and testing. I've been trading my monies (and some others) since the start of the bull run in May 2003. Removed some kind of bugs or better say design oddities and paid for it with real buck, but overall the account has progressed well and the system is stable and running since Oct 04 (same version of the code). Of course backtesting has been done on all available data (back to 29 trading indexes on the Dow). Let's wait and see if I'm very rich in 10-15 years :-) . I'm already ERed which I enjoy and spend my time developing my trading systems instead of kissing the boss and corporate white ass...

I'm thinking of creating a blog with and ERed portfolio (say 100k) to have it sun daily by the system and drag some of you along with me in my trading automation adventure. Any thoughs on that ?

Cheers,
Patrice.

[justin]

Patrice,

Thanks for the response. It'll be interesting to see your performance figures from this software. Keep us updated! Best of luck to you.

[oisif]

It looks like a very user friendly system* ...I ll get back to you in a couple of years when I figure it out*

Seriously, I would find it very interesting to follow your ER portfolio...I financed my ER at 47 by investing in the stock market myself but with that good old intuition and basic knowledge acquired during my life.