Welcome to the community! As you may know from reading here, a good way to begin to guage
your probability of success in ER is to run your numbers through FIRECalc: A different kind of retirement calculator
. Though it's backward looking (all we have is past market/economic history), no one knows what the future holds. If you think the long term outlook is as good or better than the past, you're all set. If you think future real
returns will be lower, you build in a safety factor beyond the FIRECALC results.
Though people often ask am I ready/OK - there is no correct answer. The best you can do is come up with a plan with a probability of success you're comfortable with, and be prepared to make course corrections and even a Plan B/C/D (back to work, reduce expenses, other).
All of us grapple with predicting longevity, rising health care costs, long term care, future Soc Sec & Medicare, etc. - you're not alone.